After Election, Governor Gains Muscle Needed for Historic Role

Any way you measure it, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger emerged from the election with more muscle.

Nationally? President Bush’s razor-thin victory in Ohio clinched his reelection, and Schwarzenegger’s joint appearance with the president at a raucous rally in Columbus last Friday certainly didn’t hurt.

“We’ll take our share of the credit,” says an advisor.

It means political points in the White House -- perhaps an IOU or two to be cashed in on favorable public policy or federal funds for California.

It also means being in even greater demand as a national Republican fundraiser. In such a situation, the celebrity governor can demand a share of the take for his own political coffers.

Against special interests? Basically, the special interests Schwarzenegger lined up with (business) won. The interests he fought (tribes and tracks) lost.

The lesson: Deal with this governor. Don’t try to go around him.

Critics point out that Schwarzenegger carefully picked his targets. They note that some -- the gambling initiatives -- already were mortally wounded before he took aim. “Beating a dead horse,” Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles) called it Wednesday.

Nevertheless, Schwarzenegger pounded a stake through the heart of any future gambling initiatives and probably drove some Indian tribes to his negotiating table. And, anyway, that’s what an astute governor does: pick good shots he can hit.

One risk Schwarzenegger took was firing late at the initiative that would have relaxed three-strikes sentencing.

He put up his own political money for a compelling, 15-second TV ad. (The cell door clanks. Schwarzenegger snarls, “Keep them behind bars.”) The measure had been far ahead before the governor began pounding on it.

Proposition 66’s defeat marked one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the history of proposition politics.

In the Capitol? Republicans didn’t pick up any legislative seats, despite Schwarzenegger’s campaigning for a few. But neither did Democrats -- for the first time in a presidential election since 1984.

Republicans had hoped for more, just one year after the recall of an unpopular Democratic governor. But Schwarzenegger pitched in for them more than any governor has helped legislators in decades. Some GOP lawmakers owe him.

A few Democrats are miffed, but Schwarzenegger didn’t really attack them. Presumably, they won’t want the governor to attack them in their next elections either. And this will give him added powers of persuasion in the Capitol.

But termed-out Senate leader John Burton (D-San Francisco) wasn’t buying it. Schwarzenegger “took it in the shorts” Tuesday, Burton told reporters. “Democrats in the Legislature have nothing to fear from the governor.”

Easy for him to say. He’s leaving. And he has represented a safely Democratic district.

Burton admitted deep disappointment -- and sounded unusually bitter -- because voters had narrowly rejected his Proposition 72, the employer healthcare mandate. He gave Schwarzenegger “credit or blame” for killing the measure.

And in a backhanded compliment, the veteran lawmaker said of the governor: “Nothing better than a guy who believes his own baloney. It becomes infectious with the crowd. They like him.”

The biggest factor in Tuesday’s legislative elections, however, was not Schwarzenegger or the tens of millions spent. It was the Legislature’s 2001 gerrymandering of legislative and congressional districts. The creative line-drawing was designed to preserve the political status quo, and it worked perfectly.

Consider this: Of California’s 153 legislative and congressional elections, the number of seats that changed party hands was -- zero.

At a news conference Wednesday, Schwarzenegger talked again about perhaps pushing for redistricting reform -- a ballot measure that would strip redistricting from the Legislature and give it to a panel of retired judges.

But any momentum for that reform was suddenly stopped by the voters’ rejection of Proposition 62, the open primary initiative. Credit the political establishment -- the parties and legislative leaders -- for their confusing, rival Proposition 60, which retained the status quo.

The present system elects too many “extremists, which is so bad for the state,” Schwarzenegger said. He endorsed Prop. 62, but didn’t fight for it, not wanting to further alienate the GOP.

Schwarzenegger again has proved that he can persuade voters on ballot measures. They sided his way on 11 of 14 props that he took stands on, including all his top priorities.

But to fix the state’s fiscal mess, he must use his added muscle to persuade legislators to perform tasks they don’t want to do -- cut spending and raise taxes.

And more important, he must size up that muscle himself and realize the awesome power he has to lead.

“The reason why I’m against taxes is because the people consistently are against taxes,” he told reporters.

Those are not the words of a strong leader. They sound like a scared politician who’s a follower. A strong leader chooses the right course and persuades the people to follow.

Schwarzenegger’s potential to be a historic leader -- rather than just an entertaining politician -- grew even more Tuesday.

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.