Hong Kong Warned to Drop Vote Idea

China warned Hong Kong legislators Tuesday in no uncertain terms to forget the idea of holding a referendum on whether residents should be able to directly elect their leaders.

Pro-democracy lawmakers were “playing with fire and would get burned eventually,” said Li Gang, deputy director of China’s de facto mission to Hong Kong, in the government-run China Daily, referring to the proposed nonbinding vote on whether to hold direct balloting by 2007.

China’s reaction is hardly a surprise, given that its allies in the Hong Kong government have already voiced their strong opposition to the idea -- presumably after close consultation with Beijing -- and that China has ruled out direct, popular elections until at least the end of the decade.

However, Beijing’s strong statement Tuesday may inadvertently help its pro-democracy adversaries, political analysts said, by giving them an issue to coalesce around at a time when they are somewhat adrift.

“The fact that Beijing has had such a strong response has made the democrats more interested in pursuing it,” said Ma Ngok, a political scientist with the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “They’re still trying to figure out what can work.”

The pro-democracy camp has been rethinking its strategy after falling short of expectations in September’s legislative elections. The activists received 60% of the overall vote but secured only 25 of the 60 seats. The skewed election system was partly to blame; many voters also don’t seem eager to directly confront Beijing over their political rights.

Polls suggest that China’s recent economic and political overtures toward the territory are having an effect on ever-pragmatic Hong Kong residents. In recent months, China has spurred economic integration between Hong Kong and neighboring mainland provinces, even while opening the floodgates to more mainland tourists keen on shopping in the former British colony.

Beijing also deflated hopes of any imminent move toward full democracy with the Politburo Standing Committee ruling early this year against direct elections. In addition, the Chinese government has been appealing to Hong Kong patriotism and loyalty.

“People don’t want an all-out confrontation with Beijing knowing that, without China’s support, society won’t go well,” said Timothy Wong, a political researcher at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “People also have reservations about the democracy camp’s ability to govern Hong Kong.”

In particular, the pro-democracy movement has become more divided, undermining its ability to speak with a unified voice in the face of the changing electoral mood and making it look less responsible. Other than the referendum idea, analysts add, there’s still not much sign of a clear strategy.

This contrasts sharply with the movement’s performance on July 1, 2003, when it mobilized half a million people in a peaceful protest against the Hong Kong government’s handling of the SARS health scare and the economy, sending shockwaves in Beijing’s direction. A second demonstration it held a year later drew about 200,000.

But Wang Zhenmin, a Hong Kong expert with Qinghua University in Beijing, said China’s response Tuesday to the referendum idea was justified and correctly modulated.

“I think the Chinese government has to warn against such action, otherwise [pro-democracy legislators] will go further and further,” he said. “Some politicians in Hong Kong are not interested in the local people, they just want to make a show, and that’s no good.”

Though pro-democracy lawmakers argue that a nonbinding referendum is an important way to ensure Beijing listens to Hong Kong residents, Wang said the approach was not constructive and instead seemed mostly designed to challenge Beijing’s authority.

Analysts in Hong Kong and China added that “referendum” is also a loaded term in Beijing, given the sensitivity over Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian’s ballot measure -- which was defeated in March -- on relations between the island and mainland. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and saw Chen’s referendum as a move to thwart Beijing’s will.

“Chinese people associate ‘referendum’ with Taiwanese independence,” Wang said.