Chase, Champ and Bit of Crow

NASCAR has never seen a points finish like this one, with the first and fifth drivers separated by 82 points. Exciting? You bet. As one of the many skeptics who expected the Chase for the NASCAR Nextel Cup to be just another of Brian France’s half-baked, quixotic hallucinations, line me up to eat crow.

After 400 miles of beating, banging and bruising, a champion will be crowned today. And considering the talent pool among the top five who are still in the running, the final race for the chase is just too close to call.

Mathematically, Tony Stewart is still in the hunt, but if he comes back from a 185-point deficit at Homestead-Miami Speedway, expect the Second Coming as the postrace show. Stewart can win only if the top three in the standings -- Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon -- all fail to start.

The five chase contenders have separated themselves from the pack. So what will separate the champ when the smoke clears in the Everglades? It will come down to two things: who has the best car on the track and who makes the fewest mistakes. A win should lock it up.

The contenders:

* 1. Kurt Busch. Busch finished sixth Sunday at Darlington, keeping him atop the leaderboard after the seventh consecutive race. He’s confident, perhaps even cocky, and generally composed under pressure. His pit crew has been solid. It saved him at Darlington and will make a difference at Homestead.

Only twice since 1975 has the driver leading the points going into the final race not won the title.

* 2. Jimmie Johnson: At 18 points out, Johnson is a handful of track positions away from his first championship. This is NASCAR’s comeback kid. Johnson was 247 points out and in ninth place after Kansas, and Sunday’s win was his fourth in the past five races.

Only the late Alan Kulwicki overcame a greater deficit with six races remaining (278 in 1992).

* 3. Jeff Gordon: He’s a four-time champion. No current driver has won more titles or has been as successful in a title hunt.

Gordon knows that the 21 points that separate him from Busch are not insurmountable, but he would prefer to be in the lead going into the finale.

* 4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: If the Chase were a popularity contest, Earnhardt would win, backed by the fans and the powers that be at Daytona. But with a 72-point deficit, he already has psyched himself out of the chase. “It’s too many points to get in one race,” Earnhardt says. “And Jimmie and Jeff were too good at the test (at Homestead). We have to be lucky, and we have to be good. It’s hard to be both at the same time.”

* 5. Mark Martin: At 45, Martin is the sentimental favorite and has the wisdom that comes with 10 top five points finishes. He is retiring after next season, so there’s not a driver who wants this title more. But it will take an unlikely set of circumstances.

In 1992, Kulwicki came from 30 points down before the final race and won the title. Martin would have to come from 82 back and pass four other drivers.