Viewers Give Round 1 to Kerry

Sen. John F. Kerry improved his image with voters who watched his debate with President Bush last week, but didn’t significantly shift their choice in the presidential race, a Times poll of debate viewers has found.

Although the debate did not diminish impressions of Bush on most questions, it did restore some of the luster Kerry had lost amid relentless Republican pounding since his party’s convention in July, the poll found.

The key question will be whether those gains will help Kerry peel away voters from Bush in the days ahead.

Of those who watched Thursday’s debate, more than three times as many called Kerry the winner as picked Bush, the poll found. The Democratic nominee also made modest gains with viewers on questions relating to national security and leadership. And the portion of debate viewers with favorable perceptions of Kerry increased from 52% before to 57% after.

Kerry’s most dramatic advance in the survey came in convincing more voters that he had a thorough agenda for the next four years. Asked which candidate had the more detailed plan for the policies he would pursue if elected, viewers gave Bush a 9-percentage-point edge before the encounter; afterward, they preferred Kerry by 4 points.

“I thought [Kerry] did remarkably well within that format,” said Joanne Sullivan, a registered Republican from Bremen, Maine. “He was very specific and went from Point A to Point B so much better than the platitudes that emerged from George Bush’s side.”

These survey results reflect attitudes only among registered voters who watched the debate. Their views are more apt to change than the views among voters overall, many of whom did not watch the debate.

The poll, conducted Thursday night and Friday, surveyed 1,368 registered voters who participated in a Times survey last week and agreed to be contacted after the Sept. 30 debate. Among the group, 725 voters said they had watched the debate; it is their responses the poll reports. The poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The voters who watched the debate were slightly more favorable to Kerry than the overall electorate even before the encounter began, the poll showed.

For instance, in last week’s Times poll, Kerry trailed Bush among all registered voters by 49% to 45%. But the voters who watched the matchup preferred Kerry by 48% to 47% for Bush before the debate. After the debate, viewers divided nearly the same way, with 49% favoring Kerry, 47% Bush.

That tracks with other post-debate polls showing improvements in Kerry’s image but generally little immediate change in the race. The exception is a Newsweek poll conducted Thursday night through Saturday that showed Kerry leading Bush 49% to 46% among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Lorri Guy, a secretary from Memphis, Tenn., who watched the debate, may exemplify the extent, and limits, of Kerry’s gains in the Times poll.

After the debate, she’s still undecided. She voted for Bush in 2000 and continues to admire what she sees as his tenacity and firm response to terrorism. “He says what he’s going to do and stands behind it,” she said.

But now Guy is more open to the Massachusetts senator.

“I’m not quite sure yet where Kerry’s going, but I got a better impression of him than I had,” she said. “He seemed a little more precise; he seemed like he had more of a plan.”

Guy is waiting to hear more from the candidates on the economy before deciding.

As for the candidates’ performances, viewers gave Kerry the edge on almost all questions. Before the debate, more of those who watched said they expected Bush to win than Kerry. But by 54% to 15%, viewers said they believed Kerry did a better job; independents who watched the debate preferred Kerry to Bush by more than 5 to 1.

Before the debate, those who ended up watching it were divided evenly on whether they expected Bush or Kerry to appear more knowledgeable. But, by 42% to 29%, viewers said they believed Kerry had seemed more knowledgeable.

By just over 2 to 1, viewers said Kerry was more effective at delivering his message. By more than 3 to 1, viewers said Kerry was more effective at responding under pressure. Viewers split on whether Kerry or Bush had seemed “most presidential,” with Kerry leading by a statistically insignificant 40% to 38%.

Among the striking findings was the verdict on which candidate had displayed the strongest personality and character. Before the debate, by more than 2 to 1, the viewers had expected Bush to make the best impression. Afterward, they favored Kerry over Bush by 40% to 33% on that question.

Overall, Kerry’s performance had many Democrats breathing sighs of relief, and even some Bush supporters tipping their hats.

John Harvey, a union carpenter from Douglasville, Ga., was worried that “Kerry wouldn’t know what he was talking about” on the war and foreign policy.

But after watching, he said, “I think Kerry just got his point over better. When they were showing the split screen, every time Kerry said anything critical ... Bush’s lip would quiver like a little kid.”

Added Ivan Searcy, a self-employed Democrat from Redondo Beach: “I had become somewhat disappointed in [Kerry] as a candidate. Now I feel happier with his position after the debate. He was really able to stand right there with Bush.”

Small-business owner Jan Kendall is a Bush supporter from Slidell, La. The debate didn’t cause her to question her commitment to the president. But she thought Bush “looked tired and haggard,” while Kerry “did a good job in terms of being a little more likable.”

Viewers were more likely to say Kerry attacked his opponent than Bush did Kerry -- though half felt that neither attacked more than the other. Likewise, although more voters said the president had made a mistake during the debate than said Kerry did, about half thought that neither had erred.

These reviews generated a consistent pattern on broader questions about the two men. Attitudes toward Bush generally didn’t deteriorate. But assessments of Kerry did improve.

Among those who watched, Bush’s approval rating after the debate was unchanged from before, with 49% approving and 50% disapproving. Bush’s favorability rating among debate viewers improved slightly (though within the survey’s margin of error). Before the debate, 51% of the watchers viewed Bush favorably and 49% viewed him unfavorably; afterward, the numbers were 52% and 47%.

Kerry made bigger gains among viewers. On the most basic measure, the share of viewers with a favorable impression of him rose from 52% before the debate to 57% after; the share with an unfavorable impression dropped from 46% to 41%.

Kerry gained ground on every issue and personal characteristic that the survey measured.

Before the debate, viewers gave Bush a 7-percentage-point advantage when asked which man would provide strong leadership; after the debate Bush’s advantage was 2 points.

Viewers gave Bush a 4-percentage-point advantage before the debate when asked which man had the honesty and integrity to serve as president; afterward, viewers gave Kerry a 1-percentage-point edge.

Likewise, before the debate, viewers gave Bush a 2-percentage-point advantage when asked who would be a stronger commander in chief; afterward they split evenly.

Attitudes on Iraq showed the same modest movement in Kerry’s favor. Before the debate, viewers preferred Bush over Kerry by 1 percentage point when asked which man was more likely to develop a plan for success in Iraq; afterward, they preferred Kerry by 3 points.

Bush retained a big lead among debate watchers on handling terrorism, but his advantage there was trimmed from 14 to 10 percentage points. Kerry’s edge on handling the economy widened from 6 percentage points beforehand to 13 after.

Among those who watched, Bush’s position eroded on another key question. Before the debate, 43% of viewers agreed that “the country is better off” because of his policies, whereas 53% said the nation needed to “move in a new direction.”

After the debate, the percentage of viewers who wanted to continue in Bush’s direction dropped to 39%, and the share preferring a new direction increased to 57%. Yet about an eighth of the debate watchers who wanted a new direction said they were voting for Bush nonetheless -- a finding that underscored the doubts Kerry must still overcome.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Debate reaction

Among registered voters who watched or listened to the debate.

Q. Who do you think (will win/won) the debate?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate George W. Bush 29% 15% John F. Kerry 20% 54% Even 39% 30%

*--*

Q. Who (will seem/seemed) more knowledgeable?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Bush Kerry Bush Kerry 33% 32% 29% 42%

*--*

Q. Who (will display/displayed) the strongest character?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Bush Kerry Bush Kerry 47% 18% 33% 40%

*--*

Q. Who was better at getting his message across?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Bush Kerry Bush Kerry NA NA 23% 49%

*--*

Q. Who seemed more presidential?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Bush Kerry Bush Kerry NA NA 38% %40

*--*

Q. Who appeared to be more likable?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Bush Kerry Bush Kerry NA NA 39% 38

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Q. If the elections were held today, for whom would you vote?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Kerry/Edwards 48% Kerry/Edwards 49% Bush/Cheney 47% Bush/Cheney 47% Don’t know 5% Don’t know 4%

*--*

Q. How do you think President Bush is handling:

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove His job as president 49% 50% 49% 50% The situation in Iraq 43% 54% 45% 54% The war on terrorism 51% 46% 50% 48%

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Q. What is your impression of:

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable George W. Bush 51% 49% 52% 47% John F. Kerry 52% 46% 57% 41%

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Q. Do you think the country is better off because of George W. Bush’s policies and should proceed in the direction he set out, or do you think the country is not better off and needs to move in a new direction?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Better/continue policies 43% 39% Not better/needs new direction 53% 57%

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Q. Do these phrases apply more to George W. Bush or John F. Kerry?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Strong leader for the country 49% 42% 47% 45% Has honesty and integrity to serve as president 45% 41% 43% 44% Best at keeping country safe from terrorism 50% 36% 48% 38% More likely to develop a plan for achieving success in Iraq 45% 44% 44% 47% Would be a more effective commander in chief 47% 45% 47% 47%

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Q. Do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over?

*--* Pre-debate Post-debate Worth going to war 44% 43% Not worth going to war 53% 54%

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Notes:

NA means the question was not asked in the pre-debate poll.

Some questions may not add up to 100% where some answer categories are not shown.

Source: Times Poll

How the poll was conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,757 adults nationwide, including 1,531 registered voters by telephone Sept. 25-28. After the presidential debate Thursday, 1,368 voters who had agreed to be contacted were called back Thursday evening and Friday, and of those, the 725 voters who had watched the debate were polled. Telephone numbers for the original sample were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation, and random-digit dialing techniques were used to allow listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. The entire original sample was weighted slightly to conform with their respective census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the group of voters who watched the debate is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions were presented.

Times Poll data management supervisor Claudia Vaughn contributed to this report.