Kerry Gains in Key States, Poll Finds

Sen. John F. Kerry has improved his standing over President Bush in four Midwestern battleground states where domestic concerns of healthcare and the economy have overtaken the issues of terrorism and Iraq, a new Chicago Tribune poll shows.

In Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin -- among the most contested states in the final three weeks of the campaign -- the president’s approval rating is below 50%, historically a warning sign for an incumbent.

Though a slim majority of likely voters in each of the four states say they are dissatisfied with Bush’s handling of Iraq and the economy, they still find him to be a strong leader who can better protect the nation from a terrorist strike.

As the candidates prepare for their final face-to-face encounter in a debate tonight in Tempe, Ariz., voters say they believe Kerry would be more likely than Bush to restore jobs and boost the economy.

The separate, state-by-state polls found Kerry to hold slim leads over Bush in Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota, while Bush maintained a narrow advantage in Iowa. But the findings of the surveys, which questioned 500 likely voters in each state, fall within a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The poll found that likely voters in the four states placed a greater importance on healthcare and jobs than they did on terrorism, Iraq, moral issues or taxes. When asked to name their top concern, voters in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin listed healthcare most commonly; those in Ohio said loss of jobs.

The Tribune poll was taken primarily after the second presidential debate Friday in St. Louis, although about one-fifth of the interviews were conducted before the town-hall-style forum.

In each of the four states, Kerry receives stronger support among those 65 and older. His advantage among seniors was greatest in Wisconsin, where Kerry is attracting support from 53% in that age group, compared with 39% for Bush. The poll also found that Kerry has closed a perceived gap in likability and has improved his standing among women, a move that strategists say is essential for his candidacy.

In the weeks after the Republican convention, when Bush and an army of surrogates campaigned on a strong theme of national security, many women voters had started gravitating toward Bush. Since then, Democrats accused their rivals of campaigning on a message of fear and mounted an effort to win women back to the ticket.

Though Bush has built his reelection around fighting terrorism, only a slim majority of voters in each of the four states believe military action in Iraq was part of the broader war on terrorism. Iowans are slightly more optimistic than voters in other states, with 33% saying they believe America is winning the war in Iraq, compared with 27% in Ohio and Wisconsin and 28% in Minnesota.