Florida’s Electoral Rolls Surge

Fueled by unprecedented registration drives, voting ranks in the key battleground state of Florida have swelled by 1.5 million since 2000 -- with more than 400,000 signing up since August.

Republicans and Democrats disagree on who might benefit most from the surge. The largest gain occurred among independents.

Florida election officials say they are confident that improvements to their much-maligned voting system will enable them to process the new ballots. The state opened early voting polls this week and officials insist the extra time will help them avoid the errors that plagued the 2000 elections.

“I think it’s gone really well,” said Gisela Salas, the deputy supervisor of elections in Broward County. Despite reports of long lines the first day of early voting on Monday, “we’ve had very few complaints from voters,” she said.

The Sunshine State, where President Bush narrowly won in 2000 after a bitterly contested battle with Democrat Al Gore, has added 17.7% more voters, according to figures released Friday by the Florida secretary of State’s office.

In the last four years, Republicans have added 462,000 new registered voters; Democrats have gained 458,000.

Based on new registration figures, Republicans represent 37.8% of voters, and Democrats 41.4%.

But experts say a surge in registered independent voters signals a new wild card in Florida presidential politics.

Since 2000, more than 532,000 independents have registered here, raising their percentage statewide from 15.5% to 18.3% of voters. And the campaigns for both Bush and Democrat John F. Kerry predict they’ll attract the lion’s share of those independent ballots come November.

“We’re pretty pleased,” said Mindy Tucker Fletcher, a senior advisor to the Florida Republican party. “They’ve always had a registration advantage in this state and they were not able to expand on that at all. We’re happy with the number of our new registered voters. Now we’ve just got to turn them out to the polls.”

Democrats say that although they did not win outright the battle for new party members, they’ll win over more of the state’s new independent voters.

“Independent voters and those who are still undecided overwhelmingly think the country is headed in the wrong direction and that Bush hasn’t handled the presidency well,” said Matt Miller, a Florida spokesman for the Kerry campaign.

“It stands to reason these people are not going to vote to reelect the president.”

Florida pollsters say neither party can claim an advantage from the avalanche of new voters.

“The Republican registration numbers are probably more reliable, because studies show that Republicans actually turn out to vote in greater numbers than other voters,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which specializes in Florida.

“And while greatest in numbers, the independents are the least reliable of all when it comes to casting ballots.”

Ana Garcia, a teacher in Miami, says her experience registering 40 new voters at her high school shows that the new voters are divided in their politics.

In Florida, teens who will turn 18 before election day are eligible to vote.

“When I started doing this six years ago, most of them registered as Republicans because that’s family -- it’s what their parents did,” Garcia said.

“But for the last two years, many of them actually have chosen not to choose. They feel they don’t know enough yet.”

And many have given President Bush poor grades for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq.

“I think I’m voting Kerry,” said Tim Gamwell, 18, a newly registered independent. “His character has been battered, but I’m focusing on the issues, especially the death penalty: He’s in favor of not killing people, while Bush has a long record of putting people on death row.”

Diana Matos, 18, is another independent favoring Kerry. “It’s the way Bush handled the war,” she said. “I didn’t see invading Iraq as a necessary thing to do.”

Experts estimate that 30% of Florida’s 17.5 million voters will file their ballots before Election Day. And voting officials statewide say they’re ready.

So far, early voting in Duval County has been “wonderful all week” with no technical glitches, said Erin Moody, a spokeswoman for the county supervisor of elections. She estimated about 4,600 voters cast ballots in the first four days, with 1,050 more at the polls on Friday.

In south Florida, Broward County had technical problems at the polls Monday when a network server failed.

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Glionna reported from Orlando, Rosenblatt from Los Angeles.