He’s Not Running, but Schwarzenegger Wants Your Votes

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s name isn’t on Tuesday’s ballot, but his fingerprints are all over it. His future as a political superstar is riding on it.

In short, the governor is using this ballot as a building block for future political endeavors -- what he calls his “reform agenda.”

He has never articulated what exactly that agenda is, except in generalities: a better business climate, a balanced budget, political reform that opens up government to the people....

Whatever. If he achieves his top priority Tuesday -- which is not only to beat two gambling initiatives, but to bury them -- it will leave him firmly in control of casino expansions in California. Tribes will need to negotiate with him -- over shared winnings and protections for patrons, workers and the environment -- if they want more slot machines.

Moreover, it will send a loud, unmistakable message to all adversaries, present or potential: Don’t try to bypass this governor by taking a proposal directly to the voters. Your effort will be terminated -- a word Schwarzenegger loves to use.

On the other hand, if Propositions 68 or 70 should somehow pass -- and nobody is predicting that -- it would be a hammer blow to Schwarzenegger’s political prestige after spending $7 million and substantial stump time in an all-out campaign to defeat the measures. His clout in the Legislature would be diminished. Other political enemies would be inspired, including state Treasurer Phil Angelides, a potential reelection rival in 2006.

But, based on polls, it is reasonable to assume that voters will reject both measures and Schwarzenegger will have led the charge that beat back Indian gambling tribes for the first time.

Then if voters approve Proposition 62, the open primary initiative, it will set up at least one other reform move: seizing legislative and congressional redistricting from the Legislature and turning over the decennial task to a nonpartisan panel, probably of retired judges.

The governor and his political strategists have talked about calling a special election on redistricting and other reforms for next November.

Under Prop. 62, primary elections would be open to all voters. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, would run off in November. Californians are very familiar with this type of nonpartisan primary. It’s essentially how we elect local officials.

Schwarzenegger supports Prop. 62, even though Republican leaders and their Democratic counterparts hate it. Their power would be reduced. The sponsors’ goal is to elect more moderate legislators and reduce the partisan gridlock.

“Democrats and Republicans alike, they call me and they say, ‘Governor, please stay out of this. Don’t get involved with open primaries,’ ” Schwarzenegger recently told the Panetta Institute in Monterey, Calif. “Then you know there’s something fishy.... Both of the parties are interested in keeping the status quo.”

That is what current legislative and congressional gerrymandering is all about. Both parties conspired in 2001 to protect incumbents and the political status quo.

That’s the main reason there’s not expected to be much, if any, change in the Legislature’s partisan makeup Tuesday. Democrats currently hold a 48-32 advantage in the Assembly and 25-15 in the Senate. That could bounce around a seat or two, but nobody’s predicting a dramatic shift.

“We have to win 55% of the vote to get 50% of the seats,” complains Assembly Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, who wasn’t yet a legislator when the lawmakers gerrymandered. He’s pushing for redistricting reform.

More than any governor in recent history, Schwarzenegger has been out campaigning in a non-gubernatorial election year. He’s promoting propositions to end “shakedown lawsuits” (Prop. 64) and to borrow for stem cell research (Prop. 71). He’s against relaxing “three-strikes” sentencing (Prop. 66) and opposes forcing companies to provide health insurance (Prop. 72).

He has stumped and raised money for two GOP Senate candidates and a handful of Assembly aspirants. That’s not as much as Republican leaders had hoped, but a lot more than previous governors.

He’ll get credit for victories. Losses can be blamed on President Bush and gerrymandering.

Put it all together -- crushing the gambling initiatives, enhancing his clout, enacting an open primary, underscoring the evils of gerrymandering -- and it sets up Schwarzenegger for redistricting reform, perhaps at a special election.

In the past, voters have rejected such reform proposals. But never has one been pushed by a governor this popular.

Democrats would resist. But recognizing the inevitable, they might compromise: Trade a neutral redistricting for an extension of term limits. Lengthen time, say, to 12 years in each house -- rather than the current ludicrously low six in the Assembly and eight in the Senate.

Even Republicans are closet supporters of extending term limits. The governor and lawmakers could unite behind a bipartisan package of redistricting and term limit reforms.

Schwarzenegger seems to perform best when there’s something on a ballot to promote or pummel. At a mike in front of a crowd, he basks in the cheers and adulation. His batteries get charged. And he pressures the Legislature into action.

The governor loves chess. These gambling measures, legislative races, an open primary -- all are moves in a Schwarzenegger chess game.

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George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at

george.skelton@latimes.com.