Odds Are Long in West

Even though the Dodgers didn’t acquire anyone before the non-waiver trade deadline, Paul DePodesta and Jim Tracy continue to insist the team can win the National League West.

Could the general manager and manager be expected to say anything less?

Both, however, are aware of the steep odds against the Dodgers’ eclipsing San Diego and Arizona with two months to play.

For Tracy, it is the gut instinct of a baseball man who has spent the last 28 years playing and coaching professionally. For DePodesta, it is the objective conclusion of a front-office veteran who places a premium on reason.

Baseball Prospectus, an online assemblage of cutting-edge statistical analysis, calculates daily the odds of each major league team reaching the playoffs by running a computerized simulation of the rest of the season 1 million times.

According to the analysis, the Dodgers have a 12.22156% chance of winning the West. The Padres are the favorite to take the crown at 46.43535%, and Arizona has a 38.34752% shot. San Francisco has a 2.97833% chance, and Colorado is at .02004%.

If it’s any consolation to the Dodgers, the odds can change in a hurry. Only three days ago, the Padres were at about 54% and the Diamondbacks at about 29%.

Dodger players are split on the team’s chances. Several have whispered that the likelihood of the current roster winning the division is slim.

Others keep hope alive by focusing on the fact that they trail the leaders by only four games.

“I think we can do it,” shortstop Cesar Izturis said. “We need to stay close in August, then in September we play only teams in the division. Anything can happen then.”

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Left-handed reliever Wilson Alvarez is expected to be placed on the disabled list for the third time this year because of shoulder pain after informing the Dodgers that he plans to retire after the season.

Alvarez flew to Florida to discuss his plans with his family rather than accompany the team to Washington.

Right-hander Franquelis Osoria, who had a 4.50 earned-run average in 12 innings during a brief call-up this season, is expected to be promoted from triple A.

Alvarez, who is 1-4 with a 5.73 ERA in 22 innings, was the team’s only left-handed reliever. If he retires, Alvarez, 35, would forfeit the $2-million salary he is owed next season. He gave up a game-winning home run to Jim Edmonds of St. Louis on Sunday.

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The Dodgers didn’t trade for Adam Dunn, but they can take solace in the fact that the Cincinnati slugger played a huge role in a three-game sweep of the Padres last weekend.

Dunn hit two home runs Friday and a grand slam Sunday, driving in nine runs in the series. He is third in the league with 31 homers.

ESPN.com predicted last week that Dunn, 25, will hit 702 career home runs and make the Hall of Fame.