Bush Promises a U.S. Exit Linked to Iraqi Readiness

President Bush unveiled a strategy Wednesday that he promised would deliver “complete victory” in Iraq but that also would set a firm course toward an American exit from the increasingly unpopular war.

Under growing pressure to show he has a plan, Bush praised newly trained Iraqi forces, who he said were assuming increasing responsibility for the beleaguered country’s security from the 160,000 U.S. troops. Speaking before enthusiastic midshipmen at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., Bush described a new role for U.S. forces that would leave them less visible and less often in harm’s way as they concentrated on striking the most dangerous terrorist cells, as they do in Afghanistan.

“As Iraqi forces gain experience and the political process advances, we will be able to decrease our troop levels in Iraq without losing our capability to defeat the terrorists,” Bush said in the 45-minute address.

While offering his first thoughts on the conditions necessary for troop reductions, Bush again rejected any timetable for U.S. withdrawal, and insisted: “We will never back down, we will never give in, and we will never accept anything less than complete victory.”

However, Bush on Wednesday defined victory only in broad terms that seemed to open the way for the administration to withdraw large numbers of troops even as the insurgency and political instability continued in Iraq.

The president’s speech contained the themes and phrases that Bush has included in his addresses on Iraq since the invasion in March 2003. Yet at a time when the White House has been under immense political pressure from allies and adversaries alike, Bush placed new emphasis on ways to reduce the dangers and burdens to American troops.

Wednesday’s speech was one of four that Bush plans to give before the Dec. 15 Iraqi parliamentary elections as he seeks to change the course of discussion of the war in the United States. In recent weeks, amid waning domestic support for the war, calls from American and Iraqi politicians for withdrawal have grown louder.

By mingling declarations of resolve and talk of withdrawals, Bush offered ingredients that might appeal to supporters and critics of the war. Although GOP allies quickly praised what Bush called his “comprehensive strategy,” critics were not satisfied.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said in an interview that Bush’s remarks demonstrated “he doesn’t get it.”

“He’s not acknowledging reality,” Boxer said. “It’s a picture of an out-of-touch president who is clinging desperately to illusions.”

Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), who lost the 2004 presidential race, said Bush’s portrayal of the challenge in Iraq was far too optimistic.

“Were the statistics realistic in terms of what the challenge is? I don’t think so,” Kerry said at a news conference.

In describing the readiness of the Iraqi forces, Bush made a rare acknowledgment that the administration had blundered in its early approaches.

The president said the training hadn’t “always gone smoothly” and conceded that Iraqi soldiers and police weren’t always given the kind of field training and firepower they needed to defend against the insurgents. The security forces remain “uneven in some areas,” he said.

Nevertheless, Bush contended that the Iraqi forces had made “real progress” -- with 120 police and army battalions engaged in the fight against insurgents and about 40 battalions strong enough to take the lead in the conflict. He said Iraqi units were in control of 90 square miles of the heavily populated Baghdad province, as well as parts of south-central, southeastern, western and north-central Iraq.

U.S. forces have been transferring control of operating bases to the Iraqis, who now run 12 of them, he said.

Iraqi army recruits spend as much time as U.S. soldiers in basic training -- five weeks -- and get an additional three to five weeks in more specialized training afterward, the president said.

Bush said U.S. forces also were working to help the Iraqis build the support capabilities that they have been heavily dependent on the United States forces for. The Iraqis’ logistical capabilities have been expanded with the addition of a national supply depot for the army, a small air force and a small navy.

“We’re helping the Iraqis become self-supporting, so they can take the fight to the enemy and so they can sustain themselves in the fight,” he said.

The president said the Iraqis’ progress was clear in the difference between the 2004 assault on insurgents in Fallouja and the recent one in Tall Afar.

In Fallouja, the assault was made primarily by nine coalition battalions, with support from six Iraqi battalions. In Tall Afar, the assault came from 11 Iraqi battalions, supported by five coalition battalions.

Bush said that as the Iraqi forces became more capable, “the mission of our forces will begin to change.” He said the U.S. military would “continue to shift from providing security and conducting operations against the enemy nationwide to conducting more specialized operations” targeting terrorists.

“We will increasingly move out of Iraqi cities, reduce the number of bases from which we operate, and conduct fewer patrols and convoys,” he said.

Some U.S. military officials have suggested that the administration might withdraw 50,000 or more troops in 2006 and make additional troop reductions in 2007 if it became clear that Iraqi forces could contain the insurgency.

Bush maintained a distance from any commitments to specific reductions, however, saying that “decisions about troop levels will be driven by the conditions on the ground and the good judgment of our commanders, not the artificial timetables set by politicians in Washington.”

In conjunction with the speech, the White House released a report titled “National Strategy for Victory in Iraq.” According to the report, victory can be claimed in the short term if Iraq simply makes progress fighting terrorists and building institutions and security forces. Victory requires defeating the insurgency in the “longer term,” but the report doesn’t define how long that would take or how much support the United States would be providing at that point.

“Victory will take time,” the report said. “Iraq is likely to struggle with some level of violence for many years to come.”

Some analysts said that, in several ways, Bush glossed over the difficulties of preparing Iraq’s forces to take control of the country’s security.

Bush praised the Iraqi forces for taking the lead in the recent Tall Afar fighting. Yet Tall Afar, a smaller Turkmen-dominated city in Iraq’s north, is far from the military challenge posed by Fallouja, a larger Sunni stronghold.

Bush noted that Iraqi units stayed behind after the military offensive in Tall Afar to maintain law and order. However, U.S. forces are only beginning to rebuild the local security force. An Iraqi colonel, Sherzad Khadem Hassan, told a Times reporter a month ago that his soldiers had no armored vehicles, nor enough weapons to operate independently of the American military.

Hundreds of recruits have signed up for the police force in Tall Afar.

But Iraqi officials there say that the goal of building a force that reflects the ethnic mix -- 30% Shiite and 70% Sunni -- will take time to achieve. Twice dominated by sectarian groups -- first Sunni, then Shiite -- the police department had practically collapsed by September.

Lt. Col. Fred Wellman, a U.S. Army spokesman in Baghdad, said police training throughout Iraq had lagged behind that of the army. Police “have proven harder to train and work with,” he said.

“There are a lot of divisive elements,” Wellman added, noting tribal, religious and political divides. “An Iraqi soldier or policeman faces a lot of challenges for his loyalty.”

Republicans, in their reaction to Bush’s speech, denounced Democrats and accused them of defeatism.

“It’s disappointing that just moments after President Bush articulated a clear strategy for victory in Iraq, a number of Democrat pessimists chose to attack our military’s progress and plan for victory,” said Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee. “It’s obvious some Democrats would rather naysay.”

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) said Bush’s strategy was “empowering the Iraqi people and allowing for a safe and successful transition to a peaceful, stable and permanent government.”

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Times staff writers Richard Boudreaux in Baghdad and Edwin Chen and Emma Vaughn in Washington contributed to this report.