Bush Tries to Steer Public Opinion on Social Security

As President Bush this week opens his campaign-style push for overhauling Social Security, he is resorting to a political technique patented by President Reagan: appealing over the heads of Washington politicians to a public whose opinion is in flux.

His two-day, five-state swing to make the case for changing Social Security is the beginning of his effort to overcome three daunting obstacles: mixed public opinion, a united Democratic opposition and resistance from members of his own party to the idea of allowing younger workers to divert part of their Social Security payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts.

Hoping to improve the proposal’s bleak prospects in Congress, the White House and its allies in the Senate have been trying quietly to probe for chinks in Democrats’ armor. GOP allies in the business community, not usually key players in Social Security debates, have run ads supporting private accounts. The Republican National Committee has launched a website and a petition drive to promote Bush’s Social Security plan.

Much of the activity is focused more on shaping public opinion than on directly lobbying lawmakers. The White House and its allies have concluded that before the president wins more votes in Congress, he has to win the argument in the country that Social Security is in trouble and private accounts will help fix the program.

“It is going to be a tremendously difficult legislative effort,” said one administration official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. “You can’t do what it takes just inside the Beltway with retail politics. You have to do wholesale politics. You have to move the whole country.”

The challenge Bush faces in the Senate became clear this week when Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said he was confident that none of the chamber’s 45 Democrats would support Bush’s personal account plan. If it held, that opposition could block Bush’s proposal, as it takes 41 senators to filibuster legislation and prevent a vote.

Some say that Democrats are not as dug in as they seem. “What we are seeing here is an early Kabuki dance” said Bob Stevenson, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.).

Indeed, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) has not ruled out embracing some form of personal accounts. And the White House has consulted with Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), who has argued for addressing Social Security’s long-term problems but has staunchly opposed any approach that is heavily financed by government borrowing.

When he traveled to North Dakota on Thursday, Bush invited Conrad to join him on Air Force One. After a long conversation with Bush during that flight, Conrad told reporters, “I do believe that there is a kernel of a good idea in individual accounts.”

But, he added, “I don’t think that it’s a good idea if it is financed by massive borrowing ... or by deep cuts in benefits.”

Concern about how the transition to a new system would be financed was also expressed Thursday in a letter to Bush from 44 Senate Democrats, who urged him not to pay for his Social Security plan by adding to the national debt. And Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a leading Bush ally, said the cost of making the transition to a private account system would be its “Achilles heel.”

“Reformers like myself have to be willing to pay for transition costs by means other than borrowing,” said Graham, who has proposed raising the ceiling on income that is subject to Social Security taxes. “The deficit argument has to be dealt with.”

The differences between Bush and most Democrats are stark. Bush has made one principle virtually nonnegotiable: the idea of allowing younger workers to divert part of their payroll taxes to individual accounts.

He believes that option could give people more control over their retirement and potentially better investment returns, while helping the government shore up the program for the future.

Most Democrats are just as adamantly opposed to tapping payroll tax revenue for the accounts, saying it would drain money from the retirement system, which is already facing a long-term funding problem.

Bush’s effort to change the political climate by barnstorming in conservative states with Democratic senators is similar to his approach to winning Democratic support for his 2001 tax cut. After an intensive lobbying effort in Bush-friendly states such as Nebraska, Bush won votes from 12 Democratic senators -- including Nelson.

But the president’s ability to pick up Democratic votes with that approach is diminished under today’s very different circumstances. For one thing, it was a comparatively easy lift for Bush to win votes for a big tax cut -- always a crowd pleaser -- at a time when the budget was running a surplus. Now he is trying to promote a costly overhaul of one of the government’s most popular programs at a time of big deficits.

What’s more, Bush has a harder time reaching across the aisle now than in 2001, because his relationship with Democrats in Congress has soured over the last three years.

For now, Bush is trying to enlist the public to help him pressure Congress on the issue. According to a report on recent polling by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, he has a good opportunity to shape public opinion because “the public is still coming to grips with this complex issue.”

“Public opinion on the various proposals being circulated is fluid and highly dependent on how the options are framed,” the report said. So, for example, polls show that the public is generally supportive of the idea of private investment accounts, but that support declines when the potential risks of the proposals are raised.

What’s more, Pew’s own poll in early January found that only about one-quarter of Americans said they knew a lot about Bush’s proposal for personal retirement accounts.

That is why Republicans in Congress have leaned on Bush to take a more vigorous and visible leadership role and to offer more specifics on the Social Security plan, as he did in the State of the Union address and subsequent travels. While he pounds the bully pulpit, Republicans say it will be some time before legislation begins to move in Congress.

In the meantime, some Republicans argue that Democrats will suffer in the 2006 elections if they block an initiative that may be unpopular among the elderly but is well-received among younger voters who believe Social Security will not provide for their retirement.

“Voters don’t care for people who ignore problems and aren’t willing to take on tough issues,” said Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.).

The petition on the new RNC website criticizes Democratic senators for opposing Bush.

“While President Bush is displaying leadership and following up on his campaign pledge to preserve Social Security for future generations, [Democratic senators] are offering pessimism and negativity while presenting no plan or vision for preserving Social Security,” the petition says.

But most Democrats seem to feel little political pressure to compromise on a proposal that they believe will produce reduced benefits for retirees.

“The president has the bully pulpit, and it’s obvious the administration is prepared to go to all lengths to sell this bill of goods,” said Jim Manley, spokesman for Reid. “But I can’t imagine a groundswell of support from seniors for cuts in benefits.”

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Times staff writers Edwin Chen and Warren Vieth contributed to this report.