'Moneyball' Is Hard to Figure

By Steve Henson

Jan. 12, 2005 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

Frank McCourt, moneybags or miser? It’s a question Dodger followers have pondered since he purchased the team a year ago, and one that ought to be answerable through simple addition.

Yet determining the team payroll after a whirlwind winter of trades and free-agent comings and goings is not as straightforward as it appears at first glance.

There is no question the Dodgers have spent freely, doling out $141.3 million to eight free agents, including $36 million over four years for pitcher Derek Lowe, who will be introduced today at Dodger Stadium.

And the payroll has crossed the $100-million threshold based on the average annual value of player contracts. A more precise calculation, however, is considerably less -- about $89 million -- because of the backloaded contract of pitcher Odalis Perez and a large disability insurance reimbursement expected on the contract of injured pitcher Darren Dreifort.

Looking beyond next season, the team could shell out 60% less than anticipated to J.D. Drew, the highest-paid newcomer. Drew signed a five-year, $55 million deal, but he can opt out of the contract after the 2006 season and become a free agent.

As for 2005, Perez will be paid only $3 million of the $24 million he is promised over three years. He gets a $4.5-million signing bonus by the end of 2006, and the bulk of his salary is due in 2006 and 2007.

For the Dodgers, the bonus is similar to a mortgage: It can be paid down early at no penalty and is due in full by the end of 2006.

“The signing bonus was attractive to Odalis and was attractive to the club, because it provides us with flexibility in ’05 and ‘06,” General Manager Paul DePodesta said. “Who knows, we may pay some of it in 2005, but we’re not obligated to do so.”

Whether Perez’s bonus is paid early could be determined by how much of the $13 million owed Dreifort is covered through insurance. The injury-prone right-hander had two operations this fall and isn’t expected to pitch before August, if at all.

A source familiar with baseball’s disability policies said insurance typically covers 80% of a contract for the period a player is sidelined. In Dreifort’s case, the range would be $6 million to $10 million.

Perez is a dramatic example of paying a player less early in his contract. Lowe will make slightly less in the first year of his deal.

“We haven’t gone crazy in the backloading,” DePodesta said. “For instance, we haven’t deferred one penny.”

In Drew’s case, the Dodgers might not even part with what they are willing to spend. The arrangement appears one-sided -- he can jump ship if he establishes himself as a premier player worth more than $11 million a year, and the Dodgers are stuck with him at that price if he underachieves or isn’t healthy.

“Including this clause separated us from the pack in our pursuit of the player, because the player truly believes he is just beginning to tap into his potential,” DePodesta said.

Drew, 28, had a breakout season in 2004, batting .305 with 31 home runs and an on-base percentage of .436.

The 2005 payroll cannot be determined to the penny. A few players have incentives in their contracts that could increase the value. Milton Bradley, for example, avoided arbitration by signing a one-year deal for $2.5 million. But he could push his earnings to about $3.25 million by reaching certain totals of plate appearances and games.

Also, arbitration looms for three key Dodgers -- closer Eric Gagne, starter Brad Penny and shortstop Cesar Izturis. It is conceivable the Dodgers could avoid arbitration with any of them as they did with Bradley, although it probably would take agreeing to multi-year contracts.

Gagne’s case is the most intriguing. A source said the Dodgers are considering offering him a two-year deal to buy out his last arbitration year in 2006. However, Gagne’s agent is Scott Boras, who is expected to make a case that his client is the greatest closer of all time. A two-year offer for anything less than $20 million to $22 million probably would be turned down.

In addition to an estimated $5 million going to Dreifort, the $89-million also includes $10 million the Dodgers paid the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Shawn Green trade, meaning the players on the current roster will be paid $74 million.

DePodesta expects limited payroll relief in 2006 when Jose Valentin, who signed for one year at $3.5 million, could be replaced at third base by Antonio Perez, who will make $316,000 this year, or top prospect Jose Guzman. Also, pitchers Jeff Weaver and Kazuhisa Ishii, who will be paid a combined $12.3 million this year, will become free agents, although Ishii’s contract must be bought out for $2.2 million.

“We want to put the best team on the field as possible in 2005, because we’re the defending NL West champs, and we’re taking that seriously,” DePodesta said. “That being said, we also have significantly more flexibility in ’06 and beyond -- due to minor league prospects on the rise and fewer guaranteed contracts -- to absorb some of the cost.

“We are looking at three-year and four-year aggregate payrolls and trying to put the best teams together year in and year out.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

L.A. Dollars

Salaries for Dodgers’ projected opening-day roster:

POSITION PLAYERS

J.D. Drew: $11 million

Jeff Kent: $8.5 million

Jose Valentin: $3.5 million

Milton Bradley: $2.5 million

Cesar Izturis: $1.3 million*

Ricky Ledee: $1.25 million

Olmedo Saenz: $650,000