Americans Remain Polarized Over Bush

Americans remain deeply divided over President Bush’s performance and priorities as he begins his second term, a new Los Angeles Times poll has found.

Bush arrives at his second inaugural Thursday buoyed by a public preference for smaller government, continued confidence in his efforts against terrorism and support for some of his top goals -- such as simplifying the tax code, limiting medical malpractice claims and proceeding with Iraq’s Jan. 30 election.

But the poll also found most Americans skeptical about his call to restructure Social Security, unhappy about his handling of the Iraq war and opposed to making his first-term tax cuts permanent if they would produce further federal budget deficits, as almost all projections show they would.

On the eve of their second inaugurations, Presidents Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton received positive job performance marks of at least 59% in Gallup polls.

But in the new Times survey, the public is split almost exactly in half on Bush’s performance -- a finding in line with four other national surveys released in the last week that placed his approval rating from 50% to 53%. In recent times, the Gallup Poll found that only President Nixon received such an equivocal rating at the start of a second term.

“It is remarkable that, as far as I can tell, there’s been no post-election rally, which you typically see,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta. “It just reflects the polarization of the country. Nothing that has happened since the election has changed that.”

On almost every major question, the Times poll shows that Bush faces a country fractured along the same ideological and partisan lines that have defined virtually his entire presidency.

Amid those enduring divisions, an overwhelming majority of Americans believes Washington is unlikely to make much progress on the country’s key problems. Such pessimism is one of the few points on which most Republicans and Democrats agree, the survey found.

The poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,033 adults from Saturday through Monday; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In the days leading up to Bush’s inaugural, the poll found that 75% believed he should scale back the celebration amid the war in Iraq and the tsunami disaster in Southern Asia. The White House rejected a more limited celebration, while adding a ball honoring soldiers in the field.

One of the poll’s most striking trends is the consistency in overall public attitudes about Bush’s performance. In six Times surveys last year, his overall job approval rating ranged from 49% to 52%. In the new poll, his job approval rating stands at 50%, with 47% disapproving.

On terrorism, 54% said they approved of his performance -- the exact average he received in the 2004 surveys. Likewise, 56% said they believed his policies on terrorism and national security had made the country more secure. Only 21% said his policies had made the country less secure, with another 21% saying his choices had made no difference. These figures also are very close to earlier findings.

Attitudes on other fronts appear more susceptible to events. Despite the overall endorsement of Bush’s performance on terrorism, doubts about his course in Iraq are sharpening amid the continuing violence there.

Asked to judge his Iraq policy, 42% approved and 54% disapproved, a slightly weaker showing than at any point last year.

Fully 44% said they strongly disapproved of his handling of the war -- a verdict shared by 45% of military families.

Though 39% of those polled said the “situation in Iraq was worth going to war over,” 56% said it was not. That was the smallest percentage who said the war’s benefits justified its costs since The Times first asked the question, in November 2003.

Bush has gained some ground on his economic record -- 49% said they approved of his performance, better than his marks at any point in 2004. Three-fifths said the economy was doing well, also higher than at any time in 2004.

Overall, those polled showed conflicting impulses about Washington’s role in society and specific economic policies. By 52% to 36%, a majority preferred a smaller government with fewer services over a larger government with more services -- an inclination that tracks Bush’s desire to limit federal government’s role on the domestic front.

Americans showed less confidence in the tax cuts at the core of Bush’s economic agenda. Asked which was more effective in stimulating the economy, 46% picked tax cuts and 45% preferred focusing on reducing the federal budget deficit and paying down the national debt.

Asked whether tax cuts or an “agenda focused on spending for improvements to the country’s infrastructure” would be more effective at invigorating the economy, 34% picked the tax reductions and 60% preferred the infrastructure spending.

Those attitudes loom over the decisions confronting Congress on Bush’s tax agenda. By 54% to 35%, poll respondents said Congress should make permanent the series of tax cuts Bush pushed into law in his first term.

But about one-third said they still wanted to make the tax cuts permanent if that would result in continuing federal budget deficits, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and other analysts project.

Similar nuances shape attitudes toward Bush’s promise to reform and simplify the tax code. Nearly three-fifths said they wanted him to pursue tax reform. One-quarter disagree, with the remainder uncertain.

Yet on several fronts, the public’s tax-reform priorities differ sharply from Bush’s. The president and other administration officials have indicated they want tax reform to provide more incentives for savings and investments. But 6% of those polled considered that a priority.

And 8% want to move away from income taxes toward a sales or consumption tax, as some leading Republicans have suggested.

Another idea popular among conservatives fares better: 27% said that imposing a single flat-rate tax on all income should be a top priority. That idea was especially popular among Republicans.

But the two ideas that received the most support were goals usually associated with Democrats. One-third of those polled said a reform priority should be maintaining the principle that wealthier families pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes than the less affluent. An equal number said eliminating loopholes on business should be reform’s top priority.

Some other Bush goals scored better. For instance, nearly three-fifths of Americans polled said the Iraqi elections should proceed.

By 50% to 42%, those polled said they supported Bush’s plan to limit awards for pain and suffering in medical malpractice cases.

And Americans do not appear alarmed about the possibility that Bush will appoint a conservative justice if a vacancy opens on the Supreme Court. Nearly two-thirds say they expect Bush will nominate a conservative, and of these, 34% said that prospect concerned them.

The ground is more tenuous for Bush on his drive to restructure Social Security, the centerpiece of his domestic agenda.

The poll found that Bush was gaining ground in establishing the premise that something should be done to stabilize the system over the long term. About 1 in 5 Americans polled -- and about 1 in 9 of those under age 30 -- believe the program will have enough money to pay the retirement benefits it now promises.

But Bush’s proposed solution receives a much cooler response. He has said he wants to allow workers to divert part of their payroll taxes into private accounts that they could invest in stocks and bonds.

The survey noted that some people say, “This is a good thing because it is possible to earn a higher rate of return in the stock market,” while others believe “the stock market is too unpredictable to trust it with Social Security funds.” After hearing those arguments, 42% said they would support private investment accounts, while 52% said they would oppose them.

Attitudes varied sharply by age, with three-fifths of those under 29 supporting the accounts, compared with one-fifth of seniors.

But among all age groups, support fell sharply when adults were asked if they would still endorse creating the accounts if that required reductions in the guaranteed benefits retirees received from Social Security -- 23% of those polled said they would support private accounts under those circumstances, while 69% would oppose it.

The poll offers one opening the administration may be able to build on: By 45% to 42%, those surveyed said they would be likely to establish a private account if Social Security offered the option.

Beyond individual objections to key parts of his domestic agenda, Bush faces a potentially larger problem: The public isn’t clamoring for action on these issues.

When asked to rate possible priorities for Bush’s second term, about 1 in 10 picked restructuring Social Security or rewriting the tax code.

By contrast, about 1 in 5 said his top priority should be fighting terrorism -- and more than 1 in 6 placed the war in Iraq atop their list.

As Bush approaches his second term, it appears that Americans see him -- and are prepared to judge him -- in the way he most often described himself on his road to reelection: as the commander in chief of a nation at war.

Associate Times Poll director Jill Richardson contributed to this report.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

On the eve of BushÕs second term

Q. How is George W. Bush handling:

Approve Disapprove Don’t know

His job as president? 50% 47% 3% The situation in Iraq? 42% 54% 4% The war on terrorism? 54% 43% 3% The economy? 49% 46% 5% The Tsunami disaster? 71% 18% 11%

Q. Which of the following issues should George W. Bush place at the top of his agenda?

Fighting the war on terrorism 21% Dealing with Iraq 17% Simplifying the tax code 11% Privatizing Social Security 10% Pursuing a socially conservative agenda 10% Reforming medical liability laws 9% Making tax rate cuts permanent 6%

Q: Over the next four years, how much progress do you think the government in Washington will make in solving the major problems in this country?

A great deal 7% A lot 11 Some 45 Not much at all 32 DonÕt know 5

Q: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?

Always 3% Most of the time 27 Some of the time 48 Hardly ever 21 DonÕt know 1

Q: Would you say the country is better off because of George W. BushÕs economic policies than when he became president four years ago, worse off, or about the same?

Better 26% Worse 43 Same 28 DonÕt know 3

Q: Over the last four years, have George W. BushÕs policies on terrorism and national security made the country more secure, less secure, or made no difference?

More secure 56% Less secure 21 Made no difference 21 DonÕt know 2

Q. Do you think President Bush has been less, more, or as partisan as past presidents?

Less 22% More 25 Same 47 DonÕt know 6

Q: George W. Bush cares more about:

Poor people 3% Middle-income people 7 Rich people 51 All income groups 35 DonÕt know 4

Q: George W. Bush won 5l percent of the vote in November, while John F. Kerry won 48 percent of the vote. Based on this, do you think President Bush has the mandate from the American people to push through his agenda or should he work to compromise with Democrats on many issues?

Push through 25% Compromise 71% DonÕt know 4%

Q: George W. Bush cares more about protecting the interests of:

Ordinary working people 26% Large corporations 62 Both 7 DonÕt know 5

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of allowing younger workers to divert their payroll tax money from Social Security into private investment accounts?

Approve 42% Disapprove 52 DonÕt know 6

Q: Do you think Congress should make the tax cuts permanent, or allow them to expire?

Permanent 54% Expire 35 DonÕt know 11

Q: Would you still support this proposal if it reduced the guaranteed benefit retirees received through the Social Security system?*

Support 55% Oppose 40 DonÕt know 5

* Asked of those who approve of privatizing Social Security

Note: All results are among adults nationwide. Source: Times Poll