WESTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

In predicted order of finish by MARK HEISLER

1. SAN ANTONIO

* 2004-05 record: 59-23, 2nd in West.

* Offense: 96.2 (18).

* Defense: 88.4 (1).

* Going: Glenn Robinson, Devin Brown, Linton Johnson.

* Coming: Michael Finley, Nick Van Exel, Fabricio Oberto.

* Starters: G Tony Parker (16.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 6.1 apg), G Manu Ginobili (16.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.9 apg), F Bruce Bowen (8.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.5 apg), F Tim Duncan (20.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg), C Nazr Mohammed (9.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 0.4 apg).

* Outlook: This is still Duncan’s team, but it’s less so all the time, which is a good thing because there’s less of him. At 29, he’s in his ninth season and he averaged at least 38 minutes a game in the first seven. Coach Gregg Popovich tried to ease him through last season, coming off an Olympic summer, but Duncan went down in April. He struggled through the playoffs, pulling the Spurs through in the end but averaging only 21 points and shooting 41% against single coverage by Detroit. Happily for the Spurs, Ginobili gave them the second star Parker is still trying to become. Popovich, also team president, keeps bringing in new role players. The latest are Finley and Van Exel, who will be reserves, which means the team will be even deeper. “I’m happy to see them here, myself,” annual playoff hero Robert Horry said. “Less work for me.”

* Comment: Now Duncan could take the regular season off too.

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2. HOUSTON ROCKETS

* 2004-05 record: 51-31, 5th in West.

* Offense: 95.1 (20).

* Defense: 91.0 (3).

* Going: Mike James, Clarence Weatherspoon, Scott Padgett.

* Coming: Stromile Swift, Derek Anderson, Rafer Alston, No. 1 pick Luther Head.

* Starters: G Alston (14.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 6.4 apg), G Anderson (9.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.0 apg), F Tracy McGrady (25.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.7 apg), F Swift (10.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 bpg), C Yao Ming (18.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.0 bpg).

* Outlook: Guess how many Rockets remain from third-year Coach Jeff Van Gundy’s first team? Right, the big one from China. After two years building around Yao, the Rockets ripped up their team again to get McGrady. Now everyone else who was here when Van Gundy arrived -- Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Eddie Griffin, James Posey, Kelvin Cato, et al. -- is gone. The backcourt remains a problem with Bobby Sura out, but it’s getting better. A year ago, they were starting Charlie Ward and Jim Jackson. Now it’s David Wesley, Anderson, Alston and the promising Head. Rebuilding on the fly, they started 6-11 last season but finished 45-20. Whatever they have, the dour Van Gundywill get out of them.

* Comment: Yao isn’t Shaquille O’Neal but he’s still tracking up, from 13.5 points to 17.5 to 18.3. If he keeps it up, they’ll go with him.

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3. DENVER

* 2004-05 record: 49-33, 7th in West.

* Offense: 99.5 (8).

* Defense: 97.5 (17).

* Going: No one of note.

* Coming: Earl Watson.

* Starters: G Andre Miller (13.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 6.9 apg), G Voshon Lenard (9.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.0 apg), F Carmelo Anthony (20.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.6 apg), F Kenyon Martin (15.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.1 bpg), C Marcus Camby (10.3 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 3.0 bpg).

* Outlook: After George Karl’s players in Milwaukee stopped listening to him and his 2004 U.S. Olympians embarrassed the nation, who remembered that he had ever been a good coach? After leaving the Bucks, Karl was out of work for a year and a half before being offered another job. When one opened up, it was in Denver, where the Nuggets had started 17-25, having already gone through coaches Jeff Bzdelik and Michael Cooper by January. Karl proceeded to finish 32-8, with a scorching fastbreak that left opponents sucking the thin mile-high air, just like in the old days. He did it with Anthony in a sophomore slump after his hat size doubled or tripled and Martin struggling, getting big contributions from players such as Camby (11 points a game, 11 rebounds, 3.8 blocks after the All-Star break), Earl Boykins and DerMarr Johnson.

* Comment: Anthony looks trim and with the program. If he grows up just a tad, the best is yet to come.

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4. DALLAS

* 2004-05 record: 58-24, 4th in West.

* Offense: 102.5 (3).

* Defense: 96.8 (14).

* Going: Michael Finley, Alan Henderson.

* Coming: Doug Christie, DeSagana Diop.

* Starters: G Jason Terry (12.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 5.4 apg), G Christie (6.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.8 apg), F Josh Howard (12.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.4 apg), F Dirk Nowitzki (26.1 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.1 apg), C Erick Dampier (9.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.4 bpg).

* Outlook: It used to be axiomatic that nobody else could run a Don Nelson team -- until Avery Johnson took over, finished 16-2, and advanced to the second round of the playoffs before falling to Phoenix. Nelson was easygoing and offense-minded. Johnson is defense-minded and so intense his voice vibrates. The Mavericks could always score, but under Johnson they acquired an edge. They had better be better defensively because the old big three of Finley, Steve Nash and Nowitzki is down to Nowitzki. Where Nelson liked to go small, Johnson wants to go big, but it’s hard. He vouched for Dampier, last season’s free-agent acquisition, who got $10 million a year but was still just Erick Dampier. This summer, they signed Diop, who’s younger than Dampier but not that good.

* Comment: With young players like Terry, Howard, Devin Harris and Marquis Daniels, this is still one of the deepest teams around.

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5. SEATTLE

* 2004-05 record: 52-30, 3rd in West.

* Offense: 98.9 (11).

* Defense: 96.6 (13).

* Going: Coach Nate McMillan, Jerome James, Antonio Daniels.

* Coming: Coach Bob Weiss, No. 1 pick Johan Petro.

* Starters: G Luke Ridnour (10.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.9 apg), G Ray Allen (23.9, 4.4 rpg, 3.7 apg), F Rashard Lewis (20.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.3 apg), F Reggie Evans (4.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 0.7 apg), C Vitaly Potapenko (3.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 0.3 apg).

* Outlook: Last season they had a lame-duck coach, seven free agents, were picked to finish last in the West, and finished third. That’s a hard act to follow. No matter how many lattes he can get $3.60 for, owner Howard Schultz, the Starbucks magnate, has an old arena, low attendance -- 21st in the league while going wire to wire in their division -- and a budget. Schultz re-signed Allen and Vladimir Radmanovic and held his player losses to James, and Daniels. However, after a year of being dangled, the hard-driving McMillan left for Portland. This is still a deep team that can shoot -- they were second in three-pointers to the Suns and No. 5 in three-point percentage -- and the nucleus that did it remains with rising young players such as Ridnour and Nick Collison.

* Comment: Last season they caught lightning in a bottle. Let’s see how much of it they keep.

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6. CLIPPERS

* 2004-05 record: 50-32, 6th in West.

* Offense: 95.7 (19).

* Defense: 96.5 (12).

* Going: Bobby Simmons, Kerry Kittles, Marko Jaric, Mikki Moore, Rick Brunson, Lionel Chalmers.

* Coming: Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley, No. 1 pick Yaroslav Korolev, Rodney White, Jared Reiner.

* Starters: G Cassell (13.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.1 apg), G Mobley (17.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.8 apg), F Corey Maggette (22.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 3.4 apg), F Elton Brand (20.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg), C Chris Kaman (9.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.2 apg).

* Outlook: Something’s going on on the other side of the tracks. Even without a superstar such as Kobe Bryant, this is the best roster in town. Of course, the Clippers had talented teams before that went bust and were scattered to the winds, but even the chemistry looks right now. Coach Mike Dunleavy enjoys rare cachet within the organization as a favorite of owner Donald T. Sterling. A year ago, they were hoping for Shaun Livingston to take over right out of high school to play alongside Kittles. Now Kittles is gone, Livingston can take all the time he needs to heal (again) and they have a tough, cocky backcourt of Cassell and Mobley.

* Comment: If Cassell, who’s about to turn 36, can play 75 games looking like Sam Cassell, this is their chance.

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7. MEMPHIS

* 2004-05 record: 45-37, 8th in West.

* Offense: 93.4 (23).

* Defense: 91.1 (4).

* Going: Jason Williams, James Posey, Bonzi Wells, Earl Watson, Stromile Swift, Andre Emmett.

* Coming: Bobby Jackson, Eddie Jones, Damon Stoudamire, No. 1 pick Hakim Warrick.

* Starters: G Stoudamire (15.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.7 apg), G Mike Miller (13.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.9 apg), F Jones (12.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg), F Pau Gasol (17.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.4 apg), C Lorenzen Wright (9.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.1 apg).

* Outlook: In a surprise to everyone, possibly including himself, Jerry West, who was going into his last season as Grizzly boss, is re-upping for two more, signaling his intention to take the team up another notch. Reaction among his old friends is split, between, “If anyone can do it, he can,” and “He’ll be sorry.” The franchise record was 28 wins before West brought in 71-year-old Hubie Brown and won 50. Then Brown left and Mike Fratello still won 45. Now West has replaced problem children Williams and Wells with competitors such as Jackson and Jones. They still need a star, but now they have three more seasons for Gasol to grow up or for West to think of something.

* Comment: The consensus is they’re fading ... but maybe not.

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8. PHOENIX

* 2004-05 record: 62-20, 1st in West.

* Offense: 110.4 (1).

* Defense: 103.3 (30).

* Going: Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson, Steven Hunter, Jake Voskuhl, Bo Outlaw, Walter McCarty.

* Coming: Kurt Thomas, Raja Bell, Brian Grant, James Jones, Pat Burke, Eddie House, Boris Diaw.

* Starters: G Steve Nash (15.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 11.5 apg), G Bell (12.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.4 apg), F Jones (4.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.8 apg), F Shawn Marion (19.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.0 spg), C Thomas (11.5 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.0 apg).

* Outlook: The league’s happiest story ended with a thunderclap as Amare Stoudemire underwent microfracture surgery. The team says he’ll be out four months, which may be optimistic. There are two indispensable Suns, and he is one of them. The other is guard Steve Nash, who may weigh 120 pounds by the time Stoudemire gets back. However, even before losing Stoudemire, the Suns gave up a lot of firepower. Last season’s five starters averaged a combined 92.8 points, but now 58 are gone, with their entire inside game. They went for big players such as Thomas and Grant, trying to upgrade their defense, but until Stoudemire returns their offense is a problem too.

* Comment: Nobody knows what they are -- but it’s not what they were.

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9. GOLDEN STATE

* 2004-05 record: 34-48, 12th in West.

* Offense: 98.7 (T12).

* Defense: 100.9 (24).

* Going: Nikoloz Tskitishvili.

* Coming: No. 1 pick Ike Diogu.

* Starters: G Baron Davis (19.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 7.8 apg), G Jason Richardson (21.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.9 apg), F Mike Dunleavy (13.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.6 apg), F Troy Murphy (15.4 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 1.4 apg), C Adonal Foyle (4.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg).

* Outlook: Their dog days that go all the way back to the players’ revolt after Don Nelson traded Chris Webber in 1995 are over. The team that went 298-572 and posted 11 losing seasons in a row is back. Well, it looks a lot better, anyway. They were their usual lost selves at 16-38 before Davis joined them and 18-10 after that. Dunleavy averaged 14 points after the All-Star break, making 44% of his three-point shots. Richardson, now a sidekick instead of the No. 1 guy, raised his three-point percentage from 29% before the break to 39% after it. Their problem is big guys. Murphy is a hard worker who averaged 15 points and 11 rebounds. Foyle is a 6-9, 270-pound power forward who has to play center. Andris Biedrins, who’s 6-10, just turned 19 and looked promising in the second half of the season. But that’s it.

* Comment: Remember last season’s Suns? The Warriors want to be them.

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10. LAKERS

* 2004-05 record: 34-48, 11th in West.

* Offense: 98.7 (T12).

* Defense: 101.7 (27).

* Going: Coach Rudy Tomjanovich, Caron Butler, Chucky Atkins, Vlade Divac, Brian Grant, Tierre Brown.

* Coming: Coach Phil Jackson, Kwame Brown, Aaron McKie, No. 1 pick Andrew Bynum, Smush Parker, Corie Blount, Laron Profit.

* Starters: G Lamar Odom (15.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.7 apg), G Kobe Bryant (27.6 ppg, 5.9 apg, 6.0 rpg), F Luke Walton (3.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.5 apg), F Brown (7.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.9 apg), C Chris Mihm (9.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 0.8 bpg).

* Outlook: Hard as it is for Laker fans to accept, the future isn’t now -- or soon. Jackson was nice enough to sign on for three seasons while they exercise cap discipline, waiting for the free-agent class of 2008. With as many as 12 teams in the West capable of posting winning records, making the playoffs will be hard. But the Lakers should defend and maintain some belief in what they’re doing, unlike last season. Jackson, a genius at managing expectations, is (wisely) keeping his optimism to himself but sees this as a facsimile of his Bulls, hoping Bryant can grow into the Jordan role, Odom can be a poor man’s Scottie Pippen and Brown a destitute man’s Horace Grant.

* Comment: Well, it could happen.

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11. SACRAMENTO

* 2004-05 record: 50-32, 6th in West.

* Offense: 103.7 (2).

* Defense: 101.6 (26).

* Going: Bobby Jackson, Cuttino Mobley, Darius Songaila, Eddie House, Greg Ostertag.

* Coming: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Bonzi Wells, Jason Hart, No. 1 pick Francisco Garcia.

* Starters: G Mike Bibby (19.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 6.8 apg), G Wells (10.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.2 apg), F Peja Stojakovic (20.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.1 apg), F Abdur-Rahim (16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.1 apg), C Brad Miller (15.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.9 apg).

* Outlook: Chris Webber, Doug Christie, Vlade Divac, Jackson. ... Most of the players who made them a high-scoring high-wire act, who twice won the Pacific Division in the midst of the Lakers’ three title runs, are gone. What remains is a decent roster, but a generic one. This is the best team that hasn’t won a title in the new millennium. The Kings were 16-12 after Webber was traded last season, with Stojakovic struggling to be The Man, averaging 20 points and shooting 44%, down from 24 and 48%. Now Stojakovic’s contract is running out and his situation is fluid too. Then there’s Coach Rick Adelman, whose future has looked brighter. The Maloof brothers pursued Phil Jackson last spring.

* Comment: It was fun while it lasted.

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12. MINNESOTA

2004-05 record: 44-38, 9th in West.

* Offense: 96.8 (16).

* Defense: 95.0 (8).

* Going: Coach Flip Saunders, Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell, Fred Hoiberg, Ervin Johnson.

* Coming: Coach Dwane Casey, Marko Jaric, Lionel Chalmers, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, No. 1 pick Rashad McCants.

* Starters: G Jaric (9.9 ppg, 6.1 apg, 1.68 spg), G Trenton Hassell (6.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.6 apg), F Wally Szczerbiak (15.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.4 apg), F Kevin Garnett (22.2 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 5.7 apg), C Michael Olowokandi (5.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.9 bpg).

* Outlook: No one thought it was possible for the 2004 top-seeded team in the West and reigning MVP Garnett to miss the playoffs, but Cassell and Sprewell were denied extensions, threw a season-long pout, and voila.

Few think they’ll fall this low, but the resulting shake-up disposed of Cassell, Sprewell and the respected Saunders, replacing them with a rookie coach and a bunch of role players.

Garnett, whose body wore down, will have to assume more of the burden. He never complains, but his contract ends in 2008 and insiders are already wondering whether he’ll be there that long.

* Comment: They used to moan about being the eighth-seeded team. Now they aspire to it.

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13. UTAH

* 2004-05 record: 26-56, 14th in West.

* Offense: 93.0 (T25).

* Defense: 97.3 (16).

* Going: Raja Bell, Raul Lopez, Curtis Borchardt, Kirk Snyder.

* Coming: No. 1 pick Deron Williams, Devin Brown, Greg Ostertag.

* Starters: G Williams (stats from Illinois, 12.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 6.8 apg), G Gordan Giricek (8.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.2 apg), F Andrei Kirilenko (15.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.3 bpg), F Carlos Boozer (17.8 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 2.8 apg), C Mehmet Okur (12.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.0 apg).

* Outlook: They surprised everyone by going 42-40 after Karl Malone and John Stockton left, then started 7-3 last season before the wheels fell off. They lost 53 of their last 72 with Kirilenko out and prized free agent Boozer joining him on the injured list, amid reports he wanted out -- and with owner Larry Miller almost mad enough to do it. You’d have been tempted to say nothing else could go wrong, but then they brought back Ostertag. This would be a promising team with better health and/or maturity. Coach Jerry Sloan had his fill of point guard Carlos Arroyo last season but has to make do with journeymen until No. 1 pick Williams, who has looked anxious, is ready.

* Comment: Oh, and Boozer got hurt again in the preseason.

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14. PORTLAND

* 2004-05 record: 27-55, 13th in West.

* Offense: 92.9 (27).

* Defense: 96.9 (15).

* Going: Coach Maurice Cheeks, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Damon Stoudamire, Nick Van Exel, Derek Anderson.

* Coming: Coach Nate McMillan, No. 1 picks Martell Webster and Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, Juan Dixon.

* Starters: G Sebastian Telfair (6.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 3.3 apg), G Dixon (8.0 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.8 apg), F Darius Miles (12.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.0 apg), F Zach Randolph (18.9 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.9 apg), C Joel Przybilla (6.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.1 bpg).

* Outlook: This is a nice rebuilding project with a starting lineup averaging 23 years of age, if the 18-year-old Webster makes it. There’s a star, Randolph, and a strong coach, McMillan, who has a new five-year, $27.5-million deal and his old brutal candor. McMillan shocked staffers, throwing Randolph out of practice, closing the session to outsiders, and scorching everyone. Asked about McMillan later, Randolph said without enthusiasm, “He’s OK. Cheeks is more of a players’ coach. Nate, he just wants it done the right way.” There’s a novel concept. “I never write any season off,” Miles said. “Even if we lose our first 30 games, I wouldn’t do that. There’s always hope.”

* Comment: Hope for 2008.

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15. NEW ORLEANS

* 2004-05 record: 18-64, 15th in West.

* Offense: 88.4 (30).

* Defense: 95.5 (10).

* Going: Jamaal Magloire, Lee Nailon.

* Coming: No. 1 pick Chris Paul, Kirk Snyder, Desmond Mason, Rasual Butler, Casey Jacobsen.

* Starters: G Paul (stats at Wake Forest, 15.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 6.6 apg), G J.R. Smith (10.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.9 apg), F Butler (6.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.0 apg), F Chris Andersen (7.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 apg), C P.J. Brown (10.8 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 2.2 apg).

* Outlook: At the pace owner George Shinn is going, the Donald T. Sterling Trophy for laughable management will have to be renamed for him. At least Sterling took his franchise to a bigger market. Shinn is working his way down. When Charlotte city officials finally refused to deal with him, the league had to let Shinn move to New Orleans, which had a smaller market and little corporate presence. By Year 2, they were last in attendance when Hurricane Katrina forced another move. Shinn just put Oklahoma City’s name on his franchise, noting gracelessly that his new city is supporting him better, looking like he wants to relocate again. At least Al Davis won championships.

* Comment: In three months, they may not be looking so good to Oklahoma City.