BCS History Points to USC-Texas

Only once before has a team been where USC and Texas are in the bowl championship series standings and not played for a national title.

The Trojans and Longhorns held the top two spots Monday, and are unbeaten with three weeks left in the regular season. With two more victories each, they’ll lock up spots in the Rose Bowl for a matchup that has appeared inevitable for months.

USC is in first with a BCS average of .9829, and Texas is second at .9771.

Miami is in third place with one loss, needing a misstep by the top two to play for a national title.

BCS history says USC versus Texas in Pasadena on Jan. 4 is all but a sure thing.

In the seven previous seasons the BCS has determined college football’s champion, 12 undefeated teams have held one of the top two spots in the standings with three weeks to go. Only one of those teams -- UCLA in 1998 -- didn’t play in the BCS title game.

Oklahoma was unbeaten and first in the standings heading into its final regular-season game two seasons ago, lost the Big 12 Conference title game to Kansas State, and still played for the BCS championship.

That year, USC was left out of the title game and eventually shared a national championship with Louisiana State.

The Trojans and Longhorns are such a solid 1-2 in the BCS standings, the question that can now be asked is, could USC or Texas lose a game and still reach the Rose Bowl?

BCS analyst Jerry Palm said it’s unlikely the Trojans or Longhorns could do what Oklahoma did in 2003 or what Nebraska pulled off in 2001, when the Cornhuskers lost their last regular-season game to Colorado and still played Miami for the BCS title.

“The formula now is so poll-driven that if you lose late in the season you’re pretty much dead,” he said.