Voters May Root for Gov. -- but Might Not Vote for Him

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political team has been insisting for months that the governor’s lousy job approval ratings don’t reflect his true standing with voters. Deep down, the handlers contend, Californians really are rooting for the guy.

The voters’ disapproval reflects disappointment, aides say, not disdain; despite a steady barrage of TV attack ads, the governor’s enemies have not been able to “demonize” him.

Focus groups tell them this, say the strategists. And it’s logical: Schwarzenegger roared to office as an entertaining action hero who heaved out the unpopular Gov. Gray Davis. He lifted spirits. People did root for him and still do because, after all, their hopes and trust were invested in him.

“Californians are not mad at Arnold Schwarzenegger,” chief spokesman Rob Stutzman recently told The Times. “They are rooting for him. They want him to succeed. And all that goodwill that buoyed us at absurdly high approval ratings a year ago still exists as a reservoir of goodwill.”

If that’s true -- if voters merely are disappointed and don’t despise the governor, if they’re rooting for him to succeed -- then he still has a decent shot at winning their support for his “reform” proposals in the Nov. 8 special election, regardless of these measures’ current low numbers in most public polls.

But a new poll released today by the nonpartisan Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State finds that although some voters who disapprove of Schwarzenegger are rooting for him to succeed, more than half of these rooters also think he’s not up to the job. They intend to vote against him when he runs for reelection next year. Only one in five plans to vote for him.

Of course, next year is an eternity away politically. And Schwarzenegger won’t be running against only himself. Voters will be comparing him with alternatives.

But if some voters’ current mind-set is to boot Schwarzenegger out of office, perhaps they won’t be very receptive to his pitches for “reforming” Sacramento.

Stutzman rejects that notion.

“It’s an insult to voters,” he says. “They’re smarter than that. They vote for initiatives based on the issues. What? They’re going to say, ‘Redistricting should be reformed, but, wait, Arnold proposed that, so I’m not going to vote for it?’ ”

Well, yes, they very well might -- and that’s the hope of his adversaries, mainly the public employee unions.

The San Jose State poll interviewed 636 registered voters Sept. 26-30, as Schwarzenegger began running TV ads promoting himself and his proposals. The survey’s highlights (with a 4% margin of error):

* Schwarzenegger’s job approval keeps falling. It’s now down to 36% approval, 53% disapproval. In June it was 41%-50%; in March 49%-38%.

* Of the voters who disapprove of his job performance, 54% say they’re “disappointed” in how Schwarzenegger turned out. The other 44% never wanted him as governor in the first place. Of all these disapprovers, 24% say they’re rooting for him to succeed. But 83% of the whole lot say they’ll vote for somebody else next year.

* Counting all voters -- Schwarzenegger fans and foes -- 36% intend to vote for him, including 69% of Republicans, but only 13% of Democrats. Regardless, voters rooting for him outnumber those who aren’t, 49% to 40%.

“We searched for the silver lining for Schwarzenegger, but it’s not that shiny,” says the institute’s director, Phil Trounstine.

“Voters want the governor to be successful in office ... but our findings suggest that disapproval of the governor’s performance is a potent indicator of the voters’ inclination to oppose his reelection.”

Terry Christensen, a San Jose State political science professor and author of a textbook on California government, says: “If you ask people, they’ll tell you, ‘Sure, I want our governor to succeed. But at what level? Do I want him to succeed at his agenda? No. Do I want him to solve our fiscal crisis? Yes.’

“Overall, people will say they want the governor to succeed. But I don’t think he can benefit from that in the next five weeks [before Nov. 8]. There’s too little time.”

The most recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California showed the governor’s No. 1 “reform” -- Proposition 76, a spending cap that would reduce school funding guarantees -- losing badly by 63% to 26%. His No. 2 priority -- Prop. 77, to take political redistricting away from the Legislature -- was lagging 50% to 33%. A lower priority -- Prop. 74, to lengthen probation for teachers from two to five years -- was much closer, trailing 47% to 43%.

Schwarzenegger’s adversaries contend voters aren’t listening to him. “What they were thinking would be a breath of fresh air turned out to be a lot of hot air,” asserts Democratic consultant Phil Giarrizzo.

Yes, people tend to root for a governor because if he succeeds, presumably so will their state. But many Californians also now are rooting with Bronx cheers.