Sitting Out This Election Could Backfire

Democrats have this problem: They’ve been badmouthing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s special election for months, denigrating it as a waste of taxpayers’ money and a governor’s time. Now, somehow, they’ve got to convince their voters to dignify the election by participating.

Voters like my sister-in-law Kathy in Santa Clarita.

“This whole thing is a joke,” she says. “We’ve got a lot more pressing problems that could be using up [the millions] rather than a special election. I’m tempted not to vote because it’s so ridiculous.”

That’s what the governor and Republicans are banking on: disgusted Democrats so repulsed by the special election that they’ll refuse to take part, thinking, this’ll show him.

“That’s fine with us,” says a Schwarzenegger strategist, asking not to be identified as a gubernatorial aide who hopes certain people won’t vote.

Says a Democratic counterpart anonymously, not wishing to be known as someone exhibiting panic: “Of course we’re worried. This whole election is [baloney]. It’s hard to mobilize people. There isn’t any enthusiasm about this thing, period.”

There’s a lot to badmouth: None of the initiatives on the Nov. 8 ballot is so urgent that it couldn’t wait until the June 2006 primary. If delayed until a regular election, there wouldn’t be any extra taxpayer cost.

The added state cost is expected to be about $54 million. That includes $45 million to reimburse counties for holding a state election they ordinarily wouldn’t, plus nearly $9 million for printing and mailing voter information guides.

Also, policymakers have been distracted. By insisting on a special election, Schwarzenegger forfeited any chance of making major strides in Sacramento this year. The governor has been preoccupied with photo-ops and money grubbing -- and legislators with political games.

One of the cynical reasons why Schwarzenegger and his gurus targeted this November for balloting was the cold calculation that special elections draw relatively small turnouts. Small turnouts historically benefit Republicans because the no-shows tend to be Democrats and independents.

A recent survey by the nonpartisan Field Poll showed how public opposition to the election could skew voter turnout and potentially help Schwarzenegger’s ballot props. It found that 57% of registered voters wanted Schwarzenegger to call off the election. People opposed to the election were less likely to vote than those who favored it.

A whopping 71% of the least likely voters thought the governor should cancel the election. And of those probable nonvoters, 45% were Democrats and just 26% Republicans. That left a likely electorate of 41% Democrat and 39% Republican, undercutting the Democrats’ natural advantage.

The actual voter registration is 43% Democrat, 35% Republican. And the California electorate in last fall’s presidential balloting was 45% Democrat, 37% Republican, based on The Times exit poll.

“We’ll probably have as many Republicans voting as Democrats [on Nov. 8],” says Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo.

Consultant Phil Giarrizzo, who is running the Democrats’ “field” operation -- precinct-walking, phone-banking -- says: “None of us will know what the turnout’s going to look like until we see how people engage in the last 10 to 15 days. That’s when turnout really is determined....

“Heart moves people. Commitment. Something worth fighting for....

“Our volunteers are very motivated. They’ve moved beyond disappointment in the governor and gone to anger and energy.”

But the Schwarzenegger camp expresses confidence, dismissing public polls that show the governor’s top two priorities -- Proposition 76, a spending cap, and Prop. 77, redistricting reform -- trailing badly.

GOP strategists say they’re particularly encouraged about Prop. 75, requiring public employee unions to obtain their members’ permission before spending dues on politics. They tout one poll that finds half of union members supporting the measure.

“The real challenge for Democrats is if they turn out their voters, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to turn out votes,” says Rick Claussen, a Schwarzenegger strategist. “But I can almost guarantee you that 95% of Republicans who turn out will vote ‘yes’ on the governor’s package.”

It’s the heart of the spin season and that sounds like a stretch. But this is a strange election.

Pollster DiCamillo envisions a different possibility that could hurt Schwarzenegger: Democrats bloc-voting against all the initiatives. Message to future governors -- don’t even think about this again.

“Just a theory,” he says.

That’s likely where my sister-in-law will wind up.

“I don’t want any part of this preposterous election,” she says, “but I want my little voice to be heard. So I’ll probably vote ‘no’ on all of it.”

Her husband -- my brother Chuck, a gas company engineer -- also is incensed about the election. “I’m getting tired of politicians not doing their job,” he says. “I voted for Schwarzenegger, but I’m disappointed. He’s part of the problem too.”

Yet, he’ll vote, as always -- and probably side mostly with the governor. “I’m not a Democrat, you know.”

Just a small family focus-group that illustrates how especially crucial this election turnout could be.

To prevail, Democrats must convince their voters that the best way to send Schwarzenegger a message is to vote “no” -- rather than not vote.

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George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday.