Not exactly a sure thing

FEW POLITICAL VICTORIES HAVE BEEN as sure as Hosni Mubarak’s. And while his return as president of Egypt represents progress because it came in the country’s first direct presidential election, it’s hardly a victory for democracy. The election also shows the difficulties inherent in U.S. policies in the region.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking in Cairo in June, confessed that the United States had “pursued stability at the expense of democracy in the region” and pledged that the U.S. would take “a different course.” But promoting democracy instead of preserving stability has proved just as difficult.

When Mubarak announced in late July that he would run in a real presidential campaign, it might have been a watershed moment for the United States. Egypt, its most stalwart Arab ally, was finally coming around to democracy.

But then came events that undermined what seemed like a positive step: security forces cracking down on peaceful public protests; the government disqualifying 19 candidates without explanation; state-run press and TV openly stumping for Mubarak despite rules requiring them to be neutral. Mubarak also refused international monitors for the election, disregarding U.S. requests. The result was an election under the watchful eye of the state, with voters filling out ballots as Mubarak supporters peered over their shoulders. The turnout was 23%, with fewer than one in four registered voters casting a ballot

President Bush shied away from saying he would reduce aid, despite having used it as leverage in Egyptian civil rights issues before. Egypt receives $2 billion in U.S. aid annually and has received more than $50 billion since 1975, making it the largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel.

The U.S. and Egypt are clearly making calculations about stability and democracy that are more complex than Secretary Rice’s speech suggests. With two large-scale suicide attacks in the last year, Egypt is concerned about security within its borders and has cracked down on news coverage of security operations after the deaths of two police officers. The U.S., meanwhile, will not do business with Islamists even if they are interested in the democratic process -- such as Egypt’s banned Muslim Brotherhood, which encouraged its supporters to vote in the election. The U.S. is also worried that anyone who isn’t Mubarak simply wouldn’t be as friendly to the U.S.

Both countries’ concerns are valid. The Egyptian election shows that the policy transition Rice hopes for -- promoting democracy instead of just stability -- is difficult to pursue, even between allies.