Gov. Boxes Self Into a Corner With the Right

Republican Assemblyman Dennis Mountjoy articulated Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political plight during a heated floor debate over illegal immigrants. If Schwarzenegger were to sign a bill giving them driver’s licenses, Mountjoy shouted, it’s “Hasta la vista, baby.”

How times have changed -- political strengths squandered and shriveled.

If a Republican legislator had dared speak so bluntly about the governor a year ago -- turning around one of the superstar’s favorite movie lines (from “Terminator 2”) and bellowing it back as a warning -- the lawmaker would have been burned at the party stake for blasphemy.

Moreover, he would have been off the mark. Not these days.

A year ago, Schwarzenegger could have gotten away with signing a driver’s license bill for illegal immigrants. No longer -- not with Republicans practically the only remaining members of his fan club.

The basic numbers: A mere 36% of voters approve of Schwarzenegger’s job performance, compared with 65% a year ago, according to the latest nonpartisan Field poll. Just 17% of Democrats and 28% of independents approve of him, but 67% of Republicans still do. And 65% of Republicans say they are “extremely concerned” about illegal immigration.

Schwarzenegger has backed himself into a corner where his only moves are to the right.

He did that, primarily, by starting a special election war. He aggressively attacked Democratic interests -- teachers, nurses, cops, firefighters -- that were more popular than he was, then got pummeled by their predictable counterattacks. He groveled for political bucks from his Republican interests in the corporate world after running for the job as a reformer who didn’t need special interest money. He became less of a centrist compromiser and more of a political partisan.

A year ago, Schwarzenegger had options. He could move right to please Republicans or left to reassure Democrats that he wasn’t a GOP ideologue. He could plant himself squarely in the middle. Those options, on major issues, have all but vanished. For now, he must protect his political base.

This delights Republicans. But they account for only 35% of registered voters in California. Conceivably, that could suffice in a low-turnout special election. But the more Schwarzenegger angers Democrats -- especially union members and Latinos -- the higher their turnout will be Nov. 8.

These dynamics came into sharp focus during the final days of this year’s legislative session, which ended Thursday night.

The Democratic-controlled Legislature sent the governor bills -- raising the minimum wage, permitting same-sex marriage, providing driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants -- that Schwarzenegger feels compelled by politics to veto, regardless of any policy considerations.

“Red meat for right-wing voters,” says Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata (D-Oakland).

No doubt, the Legislature’s passage of such liberal bills will rile conservatives. They’ll cheer the governor’s vetoes and be further inspired to vote.

But the Catch-22 for Schwarzenegger is that his vetoes also will further alienate him from Democrats and independents, in the case of the minimum wage and same-sex marriage bills, and Latinos, with driver’s licenses. These groups also could be inspired by the governor to vote, but against his causes. At any rate, the vetoes aren’t likely to win him back many former supporters from the left.

Legislators did not send the governor some coveted crowd-pleasers he would have reveled in signing -- including bills to place solar panels on 1 million roofs and Hollywood tax breaks to discourage out-of-state movie production. Negotiations capsized in special election bad blood.

In fact, the entire eight-month session was basically a washout -- a blown opportunity for major achievement in what should have been a nonelection year. Frittered away was the opportunity for a once-popular governor to work with eager legislators in addressing such critical needs as education reform, an overhaul of taxes and long-range planning for transportation, land use and water.

“We wasted this year,” Perata says. “This was like a rain delay in baseball. We had to wait for the weather to clear before the game could continue. And the rain delay continues.”

Schwarzenegger remains in the conservatives’ clubhouse.

He has stated reasons for his vetoes: The minimum wage hike goes too far, the voters or courts should decide on same-sex marriage, illegal immigrant driver’s licenses must await new federal guidelines under the Real ID Act (due after the 2006 elections).

Democrats argue each point, but it doesn’t matter. The political right opposes these bills and it has captured the governor’s attention.

During the driver’s license debate, two outspoken conservatives -- Assemblymen Ray Haynes of Murietta and Mountjoy of Monrovia -- pointed out that former Gov. Gray Davis was recalled largely because he signed such a bill. Schwarzenegger forced its repeal after he took office. (But the latest bill contains a concession Schwarzenegger had demanded: a different-looking license for illegals.)

“If this bill should be passed ... and the governor should sign it into law,” Mountjoy warned, “he will hear a cry of the people greater than ever before. And the cry of the people will be, ‘Hasta la vista, baby.’ ”

Schwarzenegger long ago should have said, “Hasta la vista, baby,” to his costly special election.