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Payrolls in State Grow by 17,200

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Times Staff Writer

California’s employers added a net 17,200 jobs in August, the state reported Friday, a solid although unspectacular showing that suggests the state’s economy was cruising along before any fallout from Hurricane Katrina.

The gain was less than half of the unusually robust, revised 38,100 jump in July and slightly lower than the monthly average so far this year, the Employment Development Department said.

The total number of nonfarm payroll jobs was 14.8 million.

The state’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2%, just above the nationwide rate of 4.9%. Los Angeles County’s jobless rate, however, continued to fall sharply.

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“It’s decent job growth” for the state but not as strong as past recoveries, when monthly job gains sometimes averaged 30,000, said Howard Roth, chief economist at the state Department of Finance. “Productivity gains make it easier for businesses to add fewer people.”

In any case, the question remains whether the Katrina ripple effect -- principally through higher energy prices -- might cause the state’s economy to hit a speed bump.

One report, also released Friday, wasn’t encouraging.

Chapman University’s index of California consumer sentiment plunged to 79.5 in the third quarter from 95.6 in the second quarter. That mirrored a sharp drop in the University of Michigan’s closely watched nationwide consumer sentiment index.

“Events in the Gulf Coast and a mixed bag of economic news -- including persistently high energy prices, high housing costs and higher overall inflation -- are making consumers pessimistic,” said Esmael Adibi, director of Chapman’s Anderson Center for Economic Research.

Adibi noted that California consumers had suffered steeper inflation than other Americans, in part because of higher gasoline and housing costs.

The decline in consumer sentiment won’t necessarily translate into lower spending or sluggish job creation “unless it persists for a few more months,” Adibi said.

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Previous plunges in sentiment often were fleeting, after consumers realized that shocks from extraordinary events such as Katrina weren’t as ominous as initially feared.

Analysts, however, are concerned that the state is vulnerable to another potential economic storm: an expected slowdown in the state’s sizzling housing market.

Much of the state’s recent job growth has stemmed from the real estate boom, in such fields as construction, mortgage lending, insurance and home sales. Strong consumer spending has been fueled by the so-called wealth effect of higher home prices, as homeowners have tapped refinancings and home equity loans to pay for new luxury automobiles and Caribbean cruises.

Growth in other sectors -- including trade, technology and manufacturing -- may not be strong enough to offset anticipated declines in housingrelated jobs, analysts say.

For example, a report released Friday by the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, which represents many of that area’s top employers, said job growth there would be “slow and steady.”

Statewide job growth will weaken next year “as consumers are going to push the brakes” amid a decline in home prices, Chapman’s Adibi predicted. He expects statewide job growth of 1.1% in 2006, versus 1.5% this year.

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Seven job sectors reported gains in August, led by the trade, transportation and utilities category, up a net 7,400. Leisure and hospitality payrolls added 5,300 jobs; construction increased by 4,900.

Three categories posted declines, led by a net 4,000-job drop in the information sector. Manufacturing jobs slipped by 1,500. The government sector was unchanged.

Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate plunged to 4.7% in August, down from 5.1% in July and 5.6% in June. Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., attributed the good news to strong gains in such fields as Hollywood television production, independent trucking and professional and business services.

These fields include many self-employed people in the “informal” economy who aren’t counted in the formal payroll survey that determines the headline job growth figures, Kyser said. The jobless rate, on the other hand, is calculated through a separate household survey that catches the self-employed.

Los Angeles County is a “hotbed” of the informal economy, Kyser said.

Orange County won honors for the county with the lowest jobless rate in California, at 3.8%. Elsewhere in Southern California, the rates were Santa Barbara at 3.9%, San Diego at 4.3%, Ventura at 5%, San Bernardino at 5.1% and Riverside at 5.6%. Those figures are not seasonally adjusted.

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