Not a Pathway to Success

Twelve of the first 68 winners of the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, which will be run Saturday, have been less than even money.

Of the dozen, only two -- Majestic Prince in 1969 and Affirmed nine years later -- have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby four weeks later at Churchill Downs.

Brother Derek, who is considered the top 3-year-old in the country by many, is the 3-5 choice on Jeff Tufts’ morning line for the Derby, a Grade I at 1 1/8 miles that attracted only five others when entries were taken Wednesday morning.

Obviously, owner Cecil Peacock, trainer Dan Hendricks and jockey Alex Solis hope the Santa Anita Derby is a prelude to a similar success on May 6, but if the California-bred son of Benchmark does win Saturday, he will have to reverse a trend in Louisville.

Since Affirmed, the last five odds-on Santa Anita Derby winners flopped on the first Saturday in May. The best finish was by Brocco, who was fourth in 1994. A.P. Indy, who won the Santa Anita Derby at 9-10 in 1992, missed the Kentucky Derby because of injury, but later won the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic and was voted horse of the year.

Unbeaten in four starts around two turns, Brother Derek is the controlling speed in the Derby, thanks to the fact that sprinter Fast Parade wasn’t entered. Fast Parade, a winner of three of five, including the Baldwin Stakes, where he upset Da Stoops on March 4, instead will make his next start in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland later in the month.

That means Brother Derek figures to be alone on the lead over a track on which he is unbeaten in three starts. He won the Norfolk wire to wire last Oct. 2, used similar tactics to upset Stevie Wonderboy in the San Rafael on Jan. 14, then he came from slightly off the pace to win the Santa Catalina on March 4.

“Everything with the horse seems to be right where we want it to be,” Hendricks said. “He’s fresh and going into the race with what I hope will be a lot more in reserve. His last four works have been very professional and very strong. He seems to be advancing and he needs to do so.”

Of the other contenders, Point Determined could find himself closest to the favorite early. After drawing the rail when second to A.P. Warrior in the San Felipe on March 18, Point Determined drew the outside this time.

Owned by the estate of Bob Lewis, who died in February, and trained by Bob Baffert, the $750,000 2-year-old purchase will be trying to emulate his father. Point Given won this race in 2001, disappointed in the Kentucky Derby, then rebounded to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

“Brother Derek is the best 3-year-old I’ve seen this year, so we’ll find out if we belong this week,” said Baffert, who is trying to win the Santa Anita Derby for the fifth time. “If we run 1-2-3, it will be a telltale sign that we belong in the Kentucky Derby.

“This horse is improving, he’s doing well and being on the outside we’re going to get a clear shot.”

Besides Point Determined, the other two members of the cast with a chance to upset Brother Derek are A.P. Warrior, who won the San Felipe in his first for trainer John Shirreffs and is the 7-2 second choice, and Sacred Light, who was second to Brother Derek in the Santa Catalina. Indy Wildcat and the maiden Wildfang are overmatched.

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The Santa Anita Derby will be the sixth of 11 races on the Saturday card and post time is scheduled for 2:42 p.m.

Santa Anita Derby field...D9