A market saturated by celebrity scents may soon want less star power

A skin-deep brush with fame is now just a spritz away.

You can douse yourself with eau de Britney, Paris or J.Lo, as stars jump on the lucrative fragrance bandwagon by creating their signature scent.

With even romance novelist Danielle Steel and shock rocker Marilyn Manson brewing their own concoctions, celebrity fragrances are the fastest-growing segment of the $2.9-billion perfume market, according to market researcher NPD Group. And established brands such as Chanel and Guerlain are turning to Hollywood stars to pitch their flagship scents.

But some experts warn the market is heading for saturation as increasingly unlikely celebrities latch onto the trend.

“There is a kind of exacerbation of the phenomenon right now, which makes me think we are not far from the breaking point,” said Marie-Claude Sicard, a Paris-based expert on brand analysis and strategy.

The craze for celebrity scents is credited with reviving a dormant fragrance industry and bringing a new customer base of under-40s to perfume counters.

Celebrity and celebrity-endorsed brands represented 23% of the top 100 women’s fragrances in the United States in 2005, up from 10% in 2003, according to NPD Group data.

Elizabeth Taylor was the first to capitalize on her brand status with a perfume line. Despite her absence from movie screens, Taylor’s fragrance White Diamonds remains a top seller.

That success was considered an exception until 2002, when Jennifer Lopez jump-started the category with her first scent, Glow, on the back of a red-hot movie and music career.

Now, even prestigious brands are falling over themselves to sign high-profile talent. Hilary Duff, Mariah Carey and New York Yankees star Derek Jeter are among those who have scents in the pipeline. Hilary Swank is going to promote Guerlain’s new fragrance Insolence.

But the lifespan of new launches is steadily shrinking, so industry experts see the celebrity perfume trend hitting a cyclical peak.

“It will never stop, but it will slow down certainly from the rate that it is at now,” said Rochelle Bloom, president of the Fragrance Foundation, a New York-based industry group.

Those that survive will need a talent and a strong product, as most scents do not turn a profit until their second or third year.

“I don’t care how popular they are, if they don’t have a good juice, it’s never going to succeed,” said Bloom.

Robin Krug, editor of the fragrance blog NowSmellThis, said that although celebrity perfumes pass the quality test, consumers just face too many products.

“A common complaint on the fragrance blogs and forums is that everything smells the same, and, of course, with that many releases, it is inevitable that many fragrances do smell quite similar,” Krug said. “When it comes to celebrity perfumes, it is doubly hard not to be cynical. One wonders how many times the industry simply churns out a minor variation on an existing big seller and then attaches a celebrity name after the fact.”