Villaraigosa Stands the Best Chance of Succeeding Gov.

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa returned to the Capitol this week to lobby for L.A.’s “fair share” of any infrastructure billions. And it didn’t take much imagination to envision him as California’s next governor.

In fact, at this juncture, the former Assembly speaker looks like the best bet to succeed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger -- in about five years.

He has the positioning and the pizazz.

“I’m not one of those guys who has a five-year or a 10-year plan,” the mayor told me. “One thing I know, things can change.”

My speculation is way premature, of course. A year can be an eternity in politics. That’s not only a cliche, but a reality. Schwarzenegger in 2005 is a textbook example.

But that won’t stop me or any other political junkie.

And looking at the gauntlet leading to the governor’s office, Villaraigosa has the best chance of running it. These are the twists and turns:

* First, Schwarzenegger must win reelection in November so there’s no Democratic incumbent running in the next gubernatorial race in 2010. And the smart money is on Schwarzenegger securing a second term.

Yes, Schwarzenegger foolishly ticked off Democrats last year. Today, the Public Policy Institute of California publishes a new poll showing that the small post-election gain the governor made in public job approval has evaporated. Only 40% of likely voters currently approve of his job performance.

But Schwarzenegger has an incumbent’s advantage, can raise all the money he needs, still has the ability to charm and is likely to negotiate a bipartisan infrastructure plan that will boost him politically.

Moreover, the two prospective Democratic candidates -- Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly -- haven’t excited anybody and don’t look capable of doing so.

* As mayor, Villaraigosa will need to avoid scandal -- not always easy in L.A. city government -- and rack up a laudable record so he can be reelected unscathed in 2009.

* He’d have to run for governor less than a year after being reelected mayor. But Villaraigosa, 53, has a history of not patiently passing up political opportunities.

* Who could beat him in a Democratic primary? Probably not San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who thumbed his nose at California voters and the law by authorizing gay marriages.

* The most likely Republican opponent? State Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks), if he’s elected lieutenant governor in November. But McClintock probably is too conservative to be elected governor in this blue state.

Corralling Villaraigosa in a vacant committee room, I asked whether he ever dreamed of returning here as governor. Not that I expected complete candor. The man answered in the only way he could politically.

“You know,” he said, “I never dreamed of becoming mayor. I focused on being a successful speaker. And then as the speakership started coming to an end, I just started looking to ‘What next?’ And I ran for mayor....

“I’ve got to focus on the job that I have. The best way to assure your future is to do a good job with the job you have now.”

The East L.A. kid said he loves being mayor -- “mayor of Los Angeles, Chicago or New York, there’s no greater job.”

But he also allowed, speaking with emotion: “I absolutely love this place. I love the [legislative] institution. I always call the Assembly the house of ideas and energy. The Senate is the house that keeps you sober and makes sure you’re not getting too far ahead of yourself. And together, the Legislature is the voice of everyday voters.”

Well, not exactly. Polls show that voters are pretty sour on lawmakers.

I asked Villaraigosa what was wrong with the place. He answered:

* “Too much partisanship. Most people aren’t overly partisan Democrat or Republican. They want government to work for them. When [politicians] are engaged in their internecine kind of struggles, it doesn’t play well with the public.”

* Political redistricting should generate more moderate lawmakers. “It’s important to have a broad cross-section -- not just legislators of two polar opposites.”

* Term limits are too short. “Under these limits, it has gotten more partisan. [Lawmakers] don’t have the same respect for the institution. They’re just passing through.”

* The two-thirds majority vote requirement for budget passage “really encourages a small minority of people to kind of hold you up.”

Any infrastructure bond package will need a two-thirds legislative vote, the governor’s signature and voter approval.

And to get Villaraigosa’s campaign support, he said, the L.A. region must get its “fair share.”

“I intend to campaign for these bonds if they adequately represent the needs of Southern California,” he said. “But you can’t go to the voters and say, ‘You should support this,’ if they’re not getting their fair share.”

And what’s a fair share? Public transit money should represent “at least a third” of the total transportation package, he replied. Also, there should be money for affordable housing because “88% of Los Angeles can’t afford a median-priced home -- 88%!” And L.A. residents “want the amenities of parks and open spaces.”

Democratic lawmakers agree with all that. Schwarzenegger and Republicans don’t.

Villaraigosa recalled that during last year’s mayoral race he promised to deliver L.A.’s fair share. “I said I’d be able to go to the Legislature in a way my predecessor couldn’t and ask for the money we need for investments.”

It’s time for the mayor to produce. And if he does and continues to, it’s easy to envision him someday securing California’s fair share from Washington -- unlike the current “collectinator.”

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George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.