Gov.’s Shift to the Center Is Paying Off, but There’s at Least One Catch

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s strategy is working as designed. By moving toward the political center, he is becoming less offensive to Democratic and independent voters.

Swing-voting moderates are starting to come around.

But, as would be expected, this isn’t a free ride. The governor now is less appealing to Republicans generally and conservatives in particular.

Overall, Schwarzenegger’s popularity may have bottomed out, barring more bungling. It certainly is on a slight rise, according to a new poll being released today by the nonpartisan Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State.

The statewide poll of 757 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.6%, shows that:

* The governor’s job performance now is approved by 40%, with 51% disapproving. That’s up slightly from late September, when he was being pounded on TV by public employee unions for pushing conservative “reform” initiatives that voters ultimately rejected. At that time, his job rating was 36% approval, 53% disapproval. Currently, it’s back up to roughly what it was in late June.

* More significantly, the Democrats’ approval of Schwarzenegger is up by six points and their disapproval down by eight. (It’s still only 23% approval, 68% disapproval.)

* The changing mood of independents is striking: Approval is up 13 points, disapproval down 17 (to 39%, 44%).

* Moderates are taking another look. Their approval of the governor is up nine points, disapproval down eight (43%, 48%). Even liberals are less angry. Approval is up 13, disapproval down 12 (28%, 64%).

* But there’s disenchantment among fellow Republicans. Approval is down five points, while disapproval has risen 13. (To a relatively weak -- for his own party -- 61%, 32%.)

* And the conservative base is fretting. Approval is down 10 points, disapproval up 12 (49%, 38%).

The poll was conducted from Jan. 2 to 6 after Schwarzenegger, with loud fanfare, had moved to the center on several issues: Proposing an increase in California’s minimum wage, urging the federal government to allow citizens to import cheaper prescription drugs from Canada, calling for a freeze in university student fees and signaling his intent to sponsor a colossal capital outlay program to fix up the state’s outdated infrastructure.

Schwarzenegger also appointed a career Democratic activist -- former Gov. Gray Davis advisor Susan Kennedy -- to be his chief of staff, stunning Democrats and angering many Republicans.

While the poll was underway, the governor announced that he would begin repaying schools the money he had promised in a budget deal two years ago. He’d reneged on his word to avoid raising taxes. It’s what triggered the California Teachers Assn. bombardment that helped obliterate Schwarzenegger’s centrist image and undermine him among Democrats and moderates.

“The encouraging sign, for people who follow politics, is that the voters are paying attention to what’s going on,” says Phil Trounstine, director of the San Jose State survey institute. “At least in a general sense, they’re sensitive to what occurs.”

Of course, the poll was taken before Schwarzenegger disclosed in his budget proposal that he inexplicably wants

once again to hammer the impoverished aged, blind and disabled.

Just as he was beginning to regain the centrist look, the governor proposed that the state rip off more federal dollars intended for California’s 1.2 million recipients of Supplemental Security Income, or SSI.

Last year, the governor and Legislature agreed to pocket SSI cost of living adjustments (COLAs) for three months starting Jan. 1, and for the same period beginning next Jan. 1. Now Schwarzenegger wants to continue that 2007 money grab for an extra 15 months, until July 1, 2008. The administration figures it can reap an additional $185 million from another stiffing of the aged, blind and disabled.

It’s hard to keep up with all the projected “savings.” The state also has suspended COLAs for its own State Supplementary Program, or SSP. According to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office, Sacramento already was intending to confiscate $620 million over two years from SSI/SSP beneficiaries.

For most recipients, we’re talking about $33 a month that they won’t be getting to pad their $812 subsistence. The administration argues that even with these frozen benefits, they’re the highest of any big state.

Democrats went along with the mugging last year, but vow they won’t again.

“In a year when increased revenues are $3.7 billion, it seems particularly punitive to not give SSI/SSP recipients a federal increase when their cost of food and rent is going up,” says Senate leader Don Perata (D-Oakland). “Is it responsible to hijack money from little old ladies? No.”

In fact, Perata says he wants to “revisit” all the SSI/SSP decisions from last year.

Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles) says that “Democrats, this time around, are not going to stand idly by while the poor take it in the shorts. It’s totally unacceptable. It’ll happen over my dead body.”

Except for shortchanging the poor, Schwarzenegger has been moving steadily leftward. The San Jose State poll is the first to measure that shift’s political impact.

It indicates that the only way the still-unpopular governor can win reelection is to plant himself in the center.

But Schwarzenegger can’t stay there convincingly if he continues to whack the aged, blind and disabled.

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George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.