And Now for GOP’s Real Test

The Republican victory in a closely watched San Diego-area House race showed that even in a hostile political environment, the GOP can defend its strongholds against a stiff Democratic challenge.

The result, however, shed little light on what seems the key question in November’s election: Can Republicans keep their House majority by also holding on to enough seats in districts more evenly balanced between the two parties?

Throughout Washington, GOP officials Wednesday shared a widespread sense of relief after Republican Brian Bilbray defeated Democrat Francine Busby in Tuesday’s vote to succeed former GOP Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham, who resigned after pleading guilty to corruption charges last year.

Most analysts cautioned against reading too much into a race that amounted to Republicans holding serve by retaining control of a district that has voted reliably Republican.

But the outcome may have demonstrated the limits of Democrats’ ability to parlay President Bush’s unpopularity and the public’s disdain for a scandal-racked Congress into concrete gains in districts that have leaned toward the GOP.

“The fact is, there are no moral victories in American politics; either you win, or you don’t,” said Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds (R-N.Y.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Bilbray’s victory denied Democrats what they had been seeking most from the race -- evidence that the bleak poll numbers for Bush and Congress will translate into the same sort of voter backlash that gave the GOP control of Capitol Hill in 1994.

By the same token, independent political analyst Stuart Rothenberg cautioned that Republicans still have their work cut out for them in this year’s campaign.

“They would be deluding themselves if they took this as evidence there was no ... mood for change,” Rothenberg said.

Indeed, Democratic voters in Montana showed a willingness to shake the status quo in choosing their candidate to run against GOP Sen. Conrad Burns, who is in political trouble because of his links to disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Democratic voters soundly rejected an establishment candidate embroiled in a scandal of his own in favor of a nominee who appears better equipped to make ethics an issue against Burns.

The California result was sufficiently mixed to justify optimism and concern in each party.

As Reynolds’ comment made clear, Republicans were cheered by the bottom line -- they held the seat. Busby fell short even though Cunningham’s legal troubles and Bilbray’s experience as a lobbyist -- a profession besmirched by the Abramoff scandal -- made California’s 50th District about as ideal an environment as Democrats could have wished for to promote their political reform message.

“If they couldn’t win on that message in [this race] ... they are not going to win on it anywhere,” said Carl Forti, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Some analysts blamed Busby’s loss on a gaffe during the campaign’s final days, when at a rally she seemed to be encouraging illegal immigrants to vote. Before her comments, GOP officials in Washington were increasingly concerned about the outcome. But after Busby’s comments Thursday night, momentum in the race switched.

Democrats took heart from the money and manpower Republicans had to pour into winning in a district where elections have been a GOP cakewalk.

Bush, First Lady Laura Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) all taped telephone messages urging voters to back Bilbray. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent at least $4.5 million.

“They don’t have the money to spend $4 [million] or $5 million to defend every seat” that could be competitive this fall, said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

Democrats also were heartened that Bilbray was held to about 49% of the vote in a district Bush won with 55% in 2004.

If Republicans in more closely balanced districts run that far behind Bush’s ’04 tallies in this November’s vote, Democrats could gain the 15 seats they need to recapture the House.

“The Bush drag puts an awful lot of seats in play that wouldn’t be,” said Ellen R. Malcolm, the president of EMILY’s List, a group that works to elect liberal Democratic women to Congress.

EMILY’s List named 31 Republican-held House seats that could tilt to the Democrats if the GOP candidate this year runs about five percentage points behind Bush’s ’04 totals.

Yet that analysis seemed to crop out part of the picture. Bilbray ran behind Bush mostly because two conservative independent candidates siphoned off about 5% of the vote. For all the attention Busby attracted, she won only 45% of the vote, comparable to the 44% that Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry won in the district in 2004.

“This challenges the whole argument that Democrats have made that the environment is so bad that the stability in the [political] system would be shaken,” said Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Rothenberg and other analysts said Busby’s showing should be most sobering to Democrats arguing that this year’s atmosphere of discontent would allow the party to significantly “expand the battlefield” into traditionally Republican-leaning districts.

“It is certainly a cautionary note about that,” agreed a Democratic strategist who works closely with the party’s congressional leadership and requested anonymity when discussing the private reaction to Tuesday’s vote.

Some Democrats remain confident they can win the House without winning many -- or perhaps any -- of the districts that lean as much to the GOP as Cunningham’s former seat. For that to happen, Democrats need to maximize their gains in Democratic-leaning and swing districts held by Republicans across the Northeast and industrial Midwest.

The Bilbray-Busby race “tells us Republicans aren’t voting Democratic; we know that,” Rothenberg said. “But what about Democrats who have been voting for Republican candidates? It doesn’t tell us a lot about that.”

The race did offer some guidance about the political dynamics of the immigration debate.

Echoing the position of the House GOP leadership, Bilbray called for intensified border security and a crackdown on illegal immigrants. He also seemed to have benefited from Busby’s gaffe on the subject.

His win is likely to reinforce the reluctance among House Republicans to accept Bush’s broader approach to immigration policy, which includes a plan that would potentially legalize millions of undocumented workers.

In Montana, Burns is one of the most politically vulnerable Senate Republicans because of contributions he received from Abramoff or the lobbyist’s associates.

Democrat John Morrison, the state auditor, for months had been viewed as his likely opponent, in part because he had raised significantly more money than his chief rival for the nomination, state Sen. Jon Tester.

But Morrison lost his edge after revelations of an extramarital affair. That gave Tester an opening to argue that he was the candidate best able to run against Burns on the ethics issue.

In what had been expected to be a close race, Tester trounced Morrison, 61% to 35%.