The overall view on Oscar viewership

As if there weren’t enough Oscar predictions out there, here are a few more.

Not the kind that lay odds on “Cinderella Man’s” Paul Giamatti holding off Syriana’s” George Clooney for best supporting actor.

Or whether Howard Berger and Tami Lane of “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” will swoop in to grab the makeup Oscar over Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley of “Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith.”

This involves what is shaping up to be a bigger Oscar cliffhanger, bigger than whether the star of a cable hit, “The Daily Show’s” Jon Stewart, can pull off the hosting duties. Or even whether the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will honor a movie about men in love, “Brokeback Mountain.”

It’s whether anyone will watch an award show honoring movies so few have seen. Since there are three possible scenarios -- ratings up, ratings down, ratings flat -- we’ll predict the spin various parties will offer up.

Headline: “Oscar Ratings Surge a Surprise”

Expected Spin: Viewers just want to see good movies honored. (academy, studios)

ABC is the only network that can get people to watch an award show honoring movies hardly anyone has seen. (parent Walt Disney Co., CEO Bob Iger)

There was no serious competition in the time slot, so what do you expect? (CBS, NBC, Fox, that new CW network)

It’s all because of host Stewart. (Comedy Central, his agent)

Viewers love watching airhead commentators slobbering over stars on the red carpet before the show. (ABC, KABC-TV and the E! channel)

Viewers want to see hot young stars, such as nominees Reese Witherspoon and Keira Knightley. (Us magazine)

Red state viewers only tuned in to see nominated “Walk the Line” actors Reese Witherspoon and Joaquin Phoenix. (Fox News commentators, Parents Television Council)

Cheney’s hunting accident has made America eager to rally around liberal Hollywood. (Arianna Huffington, John Kerry, Air America radio)

Headline: “Oscar Ratings Plunge Again”

Expected Spin: It was the box office slowdown, caused by theater owners who charge too much for popcorn and run too many ads. (academy, studios)

How can you get anyone to watch a show honoring movies hardly anyone has seen? (ABC)

ABC doesn’t know how to pull off a good awards show. (CBS, NBC, Fox, that new CW network)

It would have helped if “Narnia” had been nominated for best picture. (ABC parent Walt Disney Co.)

It’s all because of the host. (agents for past hosts Billy Crystal, David Letterman, Steve Martin and Whoopi Goldberg)

What do you expect when you nominate unknowns like Amy Adams and David Strathairn instead of Jessica Simpson and Johnny Depp? (Us magazine)

“Cinderella Man” wasn’t nominated for best picture. (Universal Pictures, Ron Howard)

Parents refused to watch because a rap piece glorifying criminals, “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp,” was nominated for best song. (Parents Television Council)

Viewers protested the gay content in “Brokeback Mountain” and “Capote,” and having country icon Dolly Parton sing “Travelin’ Thru,” from the transgender film “Transamerica.” (Fox News commentators, Focus on the Family)

Headline: “Oscar Ratings Flat From Year Earlier”

Expected spin: Any, or all, of the above.

Independents’ real day

This year’s Oscar nominations are full of independent films, which aren’t really that independent because they are distributed by “specialty” arms of big companies.

The real awards honoring smaller films are the Independent Spirit Awards, which sets up its tent at Santa Monica Beach on Saturday for a program that airs live on IFC.

If the Oscars are the “King Kong” of budgets and spending, consider the Independent Spirit Awards “Junebug.”

The Film Independent’s awards and festival bring in an estimated $4.5 million. By contrast, last year’s Oscars reaped $50.9 million, according to its financial documents.

James Bates is deputy entertainment editor at The Times. He writes Behind the Screens for The Envelope (TheEnvelope.latimes.com).