Angelides and Westly Need to Give Voters a Reason to Go to Polls

Treasurer Phil Angelides leads Controller Steve Westly by three points in a new poll, but a third of Democratic voters still haven’t decided who should be their party’s gubernatorial nominee. Why? The pollster thinks he knows.

Neither candidate -- nor Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, for that matter -- has been talking about things that really interest the voters, says Mark Baldassare, survey director for the Public Policy Institute of California.

That would be immigration and education, in that order, with a caveat: If you’re a Democrat, you probably want to hear the candidates talk about education more than immigration, and vice versa if you’re a Republican.

The statewide poll, released today, finds Angelides running slightly ahead of Westly among likely voters, 35% to 32% with 33% undecided. That’s far more undecided than in previous elections, the pollster notes.

The survey, however, shows a surge for Angelides since an April PPIC poll, when he trailed Westly by six points, 26% to 20%.

Still, there seems a lot of ambivalence with the election fast approaching on June 6.

One indication of that is this: When independent voters -- registered as “declined to state” -- were reminded by poll interviewers that they could vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries, 54% replied that they had no intention of participating in either, and 17% weren’t sure.

Why the indifference?

The poll asked another question that provides a clue: “Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about?”

The combined volunteered responses of all likely voters was: illegal immigration 25%, education 23%, state budget and taxes 12%, jobs and the economy 10%, infrastructure 4%.

Democratic voters, overall, ranked education ahead of immigration by 30% to 15%. But Latinos preferred to hear more about immigration, 28% to 25%. Independents and Republicans also would rather hear the candidates’ views on immigration -- by 29% to 20% and 32% to 18% respectively.

Although illegal immigration is a federal responsibility, Baldassare notes, “people want to hear something about it from the candidates. They don’t want a candidate for governor -- let alone a governor -- to just ignore the issue.”

Schwarzenegger, who can wax eloquent about his immigrant background, recently has been forced by events into responding to the delicate issue of illegal immigration. On Wednesday, he said he’s prepared to send National Guard troops to the border as proposed by President Bush, pending answers to some important questions. Like how long will the mission last, and who’s going to pay for it?

The governor says he favors a tighter border, a guest worker program and a path to citizenship for people here illegally. But some GOP pros privately have been critical of him for not leading more on the issue. And now the PPIC poll shows this is the topic Republican voters most want to hear him address.

Instead, Schwarzenegger has been going around the state promoting the $37.3-billion infrastructure bond package that he and the Legislature placed on the November ballot.

“To hang your reelection hat on the words ‘infrastructure bonds’ is not a good idea,” says Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman. “It doesn’t mean that infrastructure is not important. It’s just not a vote-getter. ‘Infrastructure’ is too nebulous.”

Perhaps it’s one reason why Schwarzenegger’s job approval among voters has actually dipped slightly: to 42% approval, 48% disapproval in the latest PPIC poll, from a slightly positive 46%-44% in April.

But that also could be because voters are nervous and in a sour mood: 59% believe things in California are going in the wrong direction; 48% fear the state’s headed for bad times financially in the next year.

Angelides and Westly have been ducking for cover on immigration. Their views are similar to Schwarzenegger’s, except both oppose deploying the National Guard.

The education issue is helping Angelides, but he probably could benefit more by tweaking his message.

The treasurer has emphasized his commitment to “fully fund” schools and raise taxes on “the big boys” -- rich folks and corporations -- to pay for it. But the education debate between the two candidates, Baldassare points out, “has evolved into who’s going to raise taxes on middle-income people.” And Democratic voters aren’t inspired by the tax issue, he adds.

Dissecting the poll data, one sees that Westly is running seven points ahead of Angelides among women, presumably because he’s more appealing on TV. Angelides is up by 14 among men. But women are twice as likely as men to regard education as the most important issue. And among the women who think that way, they divide equally between the two candidates. Among all Democratic voters who rate education highest, Angelides leads by 10 points.

Angelides and Westly both could win points by talking less about pouring money into schools and more about how they’d change classrooms to improve learning. Both candidates have sketched out rough plans -- including more charter schools -- but you wouldn’t know it by watching their attack ads.

“They need to start talking about something,” says consultant Kaufman. “They haven’t given Democrats one reason to go to the polls.”

Baldassare doubts that the mud-throwers are up to it. “It’s not just the candidates, but the campaigns,” he says. “Do they know how to do anything differently?”

It’s looking like this: a large number of undecided, combined with a barrage of depressing ads, resulting in millions of people thumbing their noses and not voting.

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George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.