Congress’ agenda on line

Tuesday’s election will determine which party controls the 435-member House and the 100-member Senate. Here’s a look at what’s at stake and how the results could reshape Capitol Hill.

What is the importance of the outcome, in terms of how Congress works?

The majority party sets the agenda in each chamber. For instance, Democratic control of either the House or Senate would pave the way for hearings on the Bush administration’s handling of the war in Iraq and a vote to increase the national minimum wage. If Republicans hold on to their majorities, they are expected to focus on making permanent some of the tax cuts enacted in President Bush’s first term.

What can Democrats accomplish if they win the House but not the Senate?

They would gain new leverage to promote their priorities, but face limits on what they could accomplish. If the GOP retains a Senate majority, it will almost assuredly serve as a firewall blocking bills passed by a Democratic House.

What if Democrats take control of both the House and the Senate?

Legislatively, the impact would be limited.

Even Democrats’ best-case election scenario gives them only a razor-thin Senate majority. So Republicans could use filibusters -- which require 60 votes to overcome -- to bottle up bills. Compromises could be reached that allowed other measures to clear Congress, but at that point the word “veto” could make a comeback in Washington’s lexicon. Bush has vetoed only one bill since taking office, but he is far less likely to sign legislation sent to him by Democrats, especially on social issues. Even if Democrats’ measures were derailed, however, Capitol Hill would become the center of the Democratic universe, giving the party the chance to define and refine its ideas heading into the 2008 presidential race.

How would a Democratic takeover of the House, the Senate or both affect the war in Iraq?

Democrats could hold more hearings to spotlight their criticism of the administration’s policy and call witnesses to investigate what has gone wrong. But as commander in chief, Bush has wide latitude to pursue the strategy he thinks best.

What if Democrats win a majority in the House by the barest margin?

Look for the conservative Democrats to get plenty of dinner invitations. On legislative matters, Republicans will try to cajole one or more of those lawmakers to defect to their side. Likewise, Democratic leaders will work just as hard to hold on to their majority.

Could some Democrats join with Republicans to deny House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi the House speakership?

Yes -- House members are not bound to support a member of their own party for speaker, so theoretically the San Francisco liberal could be thwarted in her bid to become the first woman to hold the post. But that’s considered a longshot. All Democrats, regardless of ideological stripe, would be under enormous pressure from party chieftains to back Pelosi. And newly elected Democrats -- even from conservative districts -- would owe their elections in part to Pelosi and her team’s fundraising efforts. House Democrats will meet behind closed doors to choose their leaders Nov. 16. If they win the majority, they will nominate a speaker, with the full House -- Democrats and Republicans -- voting Jan. 4.

If the Republicans lose the House, what will that mean for their leadership?

House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert of Illinois, who has served in the job longer than any other Republican, is not expected to run for minority leader. A likely successor is Rep. John A. Boehner of Ohio, currently House majority leader.

If Republicans hold the House, will Hastert remain speaker?

Maybe not. He has come under criticism from other Republicans who complain that his office did not respond aggressively enough to the first hints that now-resigned Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) had an inappropriate interest in teen male congressional pages. If the GOP barely holds on to a majority, he may decide not to run for speaker again, or he may be nudged aside for new blood. House Republicans have scheduled leadership votes for Nov. 15.

Would California’s House delegation have more or less clout if the Democrats win?

Hard to say. California Republicans now chair six House committees, including the important appropriations committee. But Pelosi’s clout as speaker would be huge. A number of California Democrats probably would chair committees: Henry Waxman of Los Angeles is in line for leading the House government reform panel, George Miller of Martinez for the committee on education and the workforce, and Tom Lantos of Burlingame for the international relations committee.

What happens if the Senate is split 50-50?

Republicans would be in charge because Vice President Dick Cheney, as the Senate’s presiding officer, would cast the tiebreaking vote.

What happens if the 51st vote that would give Democrats control of the chamber depends on Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who wins reelection as an independent after his defeat earlier this year in the Democratic primary?

Lieberman has pledged to caucus with the Democrats.

richard.simon@latimes.com

don.frederick@latimes.com