There’s no one you can bank on in this Chase

Either the apocalypse is upon us, or NASCAR’s Chase for the Nextel Cup championship has gone from merely chaotic to downright bizarre.

Mark Martin has been bragging this weekend about his record at Atlanta Motor Speedway, saying he can win here today, and rating it crucial to his title hopes.

Repeat: Mark Martin, the pessimist’s pessimist. Bragging. Talking winning. Talking title.

“The runs we’ve had here lately have been spectacular, and we believe that we can win here this weekend,” Martin, who has finished fourth or better in his last four Atlanta races, said going into today’s Bass Pro Shops MBNA 500. “We also feel that we need to win this weekend. We are obviously still in the Chase. ...”

The Chase has broken so wide open that the sun has broken through even for the 47-year-old veteran long notorious for the bleakest, humblest outlook in all of NASCAR. (And with good reason. This is Martin’s 11th time in the running for a championship late in a season, and he has nary a title to show for it.)

Now listen to the resident intellect and self-proclaimed realist Jeff Burton, whose bad luck last week -- a blown engine at Martinsville, Va. -- toppled him from early command of the Chase and threw it into bedlam.

“I don’t believe in the racing gods,” Burton said, but then spoke an aside in a skyward direction. “If you’re out there, sorry.” Then to his listeners: “You gotta cover your [posterior], right?”

This is what happens when all 10 contenders are still mathematically in the running this late in the Chase -- at least eight with realistic shots, separated by only 99 points.

It’s all because the first six races in the Chase have yielded bad luck for every driver in the field at least once, some twice, some thrice.

“To know that we’ve had three horrible finishes, and are still only 141 points out -- that certainly says it all about how crazy it’s been,” said four-time champion Jeff Gordon, who is ninth after a three-week plunge, with mechanical failures at Kansas City, Kan., and Charlotte, N.C., and a wreck at Talladega, Ala.

So, “It is down to a four-race Chase to the finish now,” said Jimmie Johnson, who shot from seventh to third in the standings by winning at Martinsville after Burton faltered early.

“It’s kind of like 0-0 and the fourth quarter is getting ready to start,” said Burton, who is fifth in the standings but not by much, 48 points behind current leader Matt Kenseth.

Because qualifying was rained out Friday, the starting order of today’s race has been set according to point standings. Kenseth will be on the pole, with Kevin Harvick (36 points back) second. Johnson (-41) will start third, followed by rookie Denny Hamlin (-47), Burton (-48), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-94), Martin (-96), Kasey Kahne (-99), Gordon (-141) and Kyle Busch (-171).

A maximum points swing of 156 is possible today, and in each of the other three races remaining -- at Texas Motor Speedway next week, Phoenix on Nov. 12 and Homestead-Miami on Nov. 19.

Kahne has the hottest hand, having won from the pole in the spring race here -- one of his series-leading six victories, all on intermediate-size tracks such as Atlanta. He also won in the spring at Texas.

Kenseth at the top and Kahne with the momentum -- he has tallied more points than any other driver the last three weeks -- worry more about Johnson than anybody else.

“I still think Jimmie is probably the favorite,” Kenseth said. “He’s been right there, every year for the last four or five years.”

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Ed Hinton covers auto racing for Tribune newspapers.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

The Chase

Nextel Cup standings with four races remaining:

*--* Driver Points Behind 1. Matt Kenseth 5,848 -- 2. Kevin Harvick 5,812 36 3. Jimmie Johnson 5,807 41 4. Denny Hamlin 5,801 47 5. Jeff Burton 5,800 48 6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5,754 94 7. Mark Martin 5,752 96 8. Kasey Kahne 5,749 99 9. Jeff Gordon 5,707 141 10. Kyle Busch 5,677 171

*--*

REMAINING SCHEDULE

* Today: Bass Pro Shops MBNA 500 (Atlanta).

Noon, Channel 4.

* Nov. 5: Dickies 500 (Fort Worth)

* Nov. 12: Checker Auto Parts 500 (Phoenix)

* Nov. 19: Ford 400 (Miami)