Presidential hopefuls will have to cast wide net for delegates

Most California Republicans have one common trait, whether they’re from San Clemente or San Francisco. They’re politically conservative.

Actually, they’ve got a whole lot in common, generally agreeing on issues ranging from the Iraq war to offshore drilling.

Ditto Democrats, although there’s some difference in degree between those living in the San Francisco Bay Area and the Central Valley.

Basically, polling shows, Republicans and Democrats are fairly homogeneous groups, regardless of their California locales. The party label means pretty much the same in one part of the state as the other.

And why is this noteworthy?

For starters, it might seem counterintuitive. After all, the Bay Area and Los Angeles County often are seen as epitomes of the liberal Left Coast, while the vast interior of California is a breeding ground for conservatism. One could surmise, therefore, that Republicans in the Bay Area and L.A. are significantly more moderate than fellow party members inland.

Wrong. The voters’ ideological splits are barely visible within the parties. Where they show up sharply is in how voters register -- which party they choose.

Only 22% of Bay Area voters are registered Republicans. In L.A. County, just 27% are. But it doesn’t mean these voters are less right-leaning than Republicans elsewhere. If you’re going to line up with the GOP in a heavily Democratic area, it’s likely you are a committed conservative.

This is pertinent now because of the early presidential primary that California almost certainly will hold next Feb. 5. Legislation moving up the primary from June suddenly is on the Capitol fast track. It means serious contenders won’t be able to ignore California. And they should discard any notion of competing only where people think as they do, because a party’s primary voters think pretty much the same everywhere.

There’ll be no particularly productive pools of ideologically based voters. Candidates will need to fish for convention delegates all over the state.

That’s good for California voters because all should see a sampling of the leading contenders on their local TV and in newspapers, perhaps even discussing parochial issues such as water and immigration. At least, that’s the theory.

Running in California, with its dozen TV markets, could cost $10 million or more and drain the bank accounts of all but two or three candidates. Competing in a primary here, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani told reporters Saturday at a GOP state convention, will be like “running in a country, not just a state....”

“I’ll have to spend a lot of time here.”

Playing amateur campaign strategist, I’d been wondering whether a candidate could “cherry-pick” locales in an effort to collect convention delegates. Those on skimpy budgets could avoid competing statewide, but still reap something from California.

That would work, however, only if voters thought a lot differently in one region than another and were especially promising targets.

Our system for allotting delegates is ripe for cherry-picking because most delegates in both parties are awarded by congressional district rather than the statewide vote.

In the GOP primary, the winner of each congressional district will receive three delegates, no matter if it’s a heavily Democratic district or a bastion of Republicanism. The Democratic system is more convoluted. But any candidate who wins 15% of the vote in a congressional district will pick up delegates. Both parties also will award some delegates based on statewide returns.

When I checked out my cherry-picking theory with pollsters at the Public Policy Institute of California, it was shown to be a flawed strategy. They found the parties to be dominated by think-alikes.

The vast majority of Republicans all over the state consider themselves to be conservatives, including 58% in the Bay Area, PPIC polling shows.

Democrats tend to be liberal everywhere but the Central Valley, where there are as many moderates.

Independents -- “declined to state” -- are more fluctuating. They lean left in the Bay Area, but incline toward the center in the rest of California. This is relevant because independents will be allowed to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and could be a soft voice of moderation. They’re banned from the GOP contest.

Democrats and independents everywhere, overwhelmingly, think “it was not worth going to war in Iraq.” Republicans disagree, although their support has been declining. In L.A. County last month, a narrow majority of Republicans still felt the war was “worth it.” There was a bit more support among Republicans in the Bay Area, and even more in the rest of the state.

I didn’t think there was anyone left in California who advocated drilling for more oil off the coast. But 61% of Republicans do, including 57% in the Bay Area. Democrats are solidly opposed everywhere.

Republicans everywhere -- including 63% in the Bay Area -- oppose same-sex marriage. Democrats generally support it, although just barely in the Central Valley.

One issue that voters of both parties and independents basically agree on everywhere is abortion. They don’t want the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade decision that granted women abortion rights.

Giuliani, who gave a passionate, enthusiastically received speech to GOP activists in Sacramento, seems to have the currently correct profile for California Republicans: backs the war, projects strong leadership, preaches the low-tax gospel and favors abortion rights.

He should be able to sell that to Republicans all over the state.

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.