Bratton sets goal of 5% cut in crime

At a time when crime is rising in much of the nation, Police Chief William J. Bratton said Monday he has set a goal of reducing serious incidents by 5% this year in Los Angeles, which -- if achieved -- would mark the sixth year of decline in a row.

But with the city already experiencing seven murders in the first seven days of the new year, some Los Angeles Police Department officials said they were skeptical that crime can continue to be pushed down unless the size of the force is expanded.

The city is in the midst of a hiring drive but has struggled to find recruits. To that end, Bratton and Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa proposed a signing bonus for new officers Monday that they believe will help boost the police force and help bring the goal of reducing crime within reach.

The latest target is less ambitious than the 8% goal set last year (crime dropped 7.7%), and Bratton set and met a 10% goal for 2005 and crime declined 14% in 2004, a year in which he set a 20% reduction goal.

Bratton has set a lower goal for the most serious crimes -- such a murder, assault and robbery -- in part because the size of the police force remains below levels that he thinks are necessary. Also, Los Angeles has already made great strides while the national trend has crime rising in many big cities.

“The goal is based upon the recognition that crime has already dropped 30% in the last four years, and the number of officers remains static,” Bratton told The Times. “Our preliminary analysis for 2007 is we can achieve this goal through a concerted effort against gangs, guns, and drugs.”

The 5% goal is “ambitious” but achievable, according to Joseph Peterson, head of the criminal justice program at Cal State L.A. He says Bratton has shown through a career heading police agencies in Boston, New York and Los Angeles how to engineer reductions in crime.

Police Commission President John Mack said Monday that he supports the chief’s newest goal given that other departments are expecting increases in crime and the LAPD has limited resources. Bratton is likely to be appointed by the commission to a second five-year term this spring.

“Considering the seriousness of the crime problem and that, under the chief’s leadership we have bucked the national trend, I think the 5% goal is reasonable and realistic,” Mack said. “It’s important not to overreach. The chief is just dealing with the reality he has.”

Indeed, the president of the Police Protective League voiced doubt Monday about the mayor’s goal given the staffing problems. “We would love to see crime go down by 5%,” said police union President Bob Baker. “Realistically though, we are tapped out. We do not have enough officers on the street.” Unless another solution is found, such as more overtime funding, Baker said “we think that any further drop in crime would be nothing short of a miracle.”

The City Council approved a trash fee increase last year to expand the police force by 1,000 officers in five years, but the department has struggled to meet its targets. Last year, the department fell 323 officers short of its hiring goal.

This year’s more modest hiring goal is for the police force to see a net gain of 135 officers.

On Monday, the mayor proposed awarding $5,000 signing bonuses to new officers once they graduate from the Police Academy and finish a probationary period; $10,000 bonuses would be offered to officers from other California law enforcement agencies who join the department.

The incentive program, retroactive to all recruiting classes since July 1, would cost $1 million this fiscal year. It still needs the approval of the City Council.

patrick.mcgreevy@latimes.com

duke.helfand@latimes.com