‘Fred Claus’ may be unwelcome

As a ribald comedian, “Wedding Crashers” star Vince Vaughn couldn’t be much hotter -- which is exactly the “Fred Claus” quandary.

Warner Bros. is releasing Vaughn’s new Christmas comedy this weekend, and the studio faces a tough battle convincing parents that it’s safe to take their kids to see the often raunchy actor in a PG-rated movie.

The studio has a lot on the line: Warner Bros. has a strong track record with holiday movies (“Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire,” “The Polar Express”), and invested heavily in making and marketing the special effects-laden “Fred Claus” production. But audience tracking surveys indicate the studio’s comedy about Santa’s ne’er-do-well brother is not on everybody’s radar: Data compiled by the National Research Group show less than a third of moviegoers were aware of the film without prompting.

To expand the “Fred Claus” appeal, Warner Bros. has reworked its advertising campaign. An early trailer featured a number of edgy jokes between Vaughn and Paul Giamatti’s Santa, including a gag about a reindeer having a rash. The early spots also promoted the fact that “Fred Claus” director David Dobkin also made Vaughn’s sex comedy “Wedding Crashers.”

The “Wedding Crashers” references since have been eliminated, and new TV commercials and previews play up the film’s kid-friendly comedy and more emotional story lines. That has translated into greater interest among parents with kids older than nine -- the NRG numbers for that demographic are similar to the pre-opening interest for 2003’s hit “Elf.”

“Fred Claus” faces other challenges: “American Gangster” opened strongly last weekend with $43.6 million and may claim much of the coming weekend’s teenage customers, while “Bee Movie,” which also debuted last weekend, could be the choice of moviegoing parents with younger children.

Buoyed by favorable reviews, “American Gangster” could very well remain in first place for the second straight weekend. Assuming the Denzel Washington-Russell Crowe crime drama drops only 35%, that means “American Gangster” might gross as much as $28 million. “Fred Claus” may finish second with a gross of about $26 million.

United Artists has more modest expectations for the first film released under the new management of Tom Cruise and producing partner Paula Wagner. “Lions for Lambs” may feature Cruise, Meryl Streep and Robert Redford (who also directed), but it’s a genre that’s not entirely in favor: a talky political drama about Middle Eastern war.

UA has sold the “Lions for Lambs” star power as heavily as the film’s hard-to-condense plot, and is banking on strong reviews to persuade older moviegoers to check it out. But early notices have been sharply mixed, and NRG’s tracking surveys -- 2% unaided awareness -- do not bode well. If it grosses $10 million, UA should be happy, but $8 million appears more likely.

“Lions for Lambs” isn’t the only new movie out this weekend from a company under new management. Summit Entertainment will launch itself as a domestic distributor with “P2.” The low-budget horror film will likely have as dubious a debut as Revolution Studios’ first release, the 2001 turkey “Tomcats.” That film grossed $6.4 million in its opening weekend, and Summit will be lucky if “P2” makes half of that.

john.horn@latimes.com