This Rose still needs a lot of trimming

Rose Bowl executives have scheduled a Nov. 19 meeting to start discussing matchup options.

Based on the possibilities now, the meeting could last several days and involve food rationing and midnight oil.

“It makes your head hurt.” Rose Bowl CEO Mitch Dorger said.

The 2008 Rose Bowl, presented by Bayer?

This has already been a year in which:

* Two unranked-in-August schools, Oregon and Kansas, have emerged as national title contenders.

* Nine top-25 teams lost in one weekend, four out of the top 10 in another and the No. 2 team in the Associated Press poll lost four times in a five-week span.

* The Heisman Trophy race has been so muddled some voters might write in former Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning just to make up for 1997.

It seems only fitting that Rose Bowl scenarios would be just as maddening.

On Dec. 2, two schools will formally be introduced for this year’s Jan. 1 game and, as of now, the matchup might be almost anything. Are the Haskell Indians a fall-back plan, the way they were in 1924?

The possibilities include USC vs. Michigan again (Please bowl gods, no!) and West Virginia vs. Kansas (Say it ain’t hoe!).

Reeling UCLA, amazingly, still controls its Rose Bowl fate.

Arizona State can still get here from there.

California, which dropped from No. 2 to out of the BCS standings after three consecutive conference defeats, could still make it to Pasadena with a 9-3 finish and the right poll palpitations.

It used to be easier, before the Rose Bowl joined the Bowl Championship Series. From 1947 until 1998, the champions of what would become the Pacific 10 and Big Ten conferences would meet in Pasadena -- with no-repeat rule exceptions.

It’s complicated now.

In exchange for playing host to the BCS title game every four years, the Rose Bowl has to surrender the Pac-10 and/or Big Ten champions if they are ranked No. 1 or No. 2. For example, if Ohio State and Oregon end up in the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl has to replace both traditional anchors.

Based on this week’s BCS standings, No. 1 Ohio State would play Louisiana State in the BCS title game and No. 3 Oregon would be Rose Bowl bound. In choosing Oregon’s opponent, the Rose Bowl would get the first at-large replacement pick for losing Ohio State.

However, the Big Ten might not have a BCS bowl-eligible school to offer to the Rose. Assuming Ohio State hands Michigan a third loss on Nov. 17, the Wolverines would have to be ranked in the BCS top 14 to be considered. Michigan is No. 12 this week.

Even if Michigan were eligible, the Rose Bowl might pass on three-loss Wolverines in favor of a higher-ranked school. Oregon and Michigan have already played this year -- the Ducks winning, 39-7 -- and Michigan has played in three Rose Bowls since 2003.

The Rose Bowl could choose the Big East champion, not anchored to a specific bowl, or from a pool of eligible at-large schools.

West Virginia, at 11-1, would be a possible replacement choice as might 12-1 Kansas if the loss was in the Big 12 title game.

Texas or Georgia, at 10-2, might be replacement picks.

Here are a few scenarios:

* Best game the Rose Bowl can get: Oregon vs. Ohio State.

It’s also the least likely outcome. Ohio State would have to lose at home to Illinois this week and then beat Michigan to win the Big Ten title. It would involve LSU moving up to No. 1 and somebody, most likely undefeated Kansas, jumping one-loss Oregon for the No. 2 spot.

* Most likely, put-a-rose-thorn-to-our-head, prediction: Oregon vs. West Virginia.

Let’s say BCS form holds, Ohio State plays LSU for the championship and West Virginia finishes 11-1. Oregon would be the Pac-10’s Rose Bowl representative. The Big Ten would not have an attractive at-large candidate left, so the Rose nabs West Virginia, which could be ranked No. 5 in the final BCS standings.

That gives the Rose Bowl No. 3 vs. No. 5 in a pairing of schools with rabid fan bases.

* Can’t do anything about it: Oregon vs. Michigan.

How: Oregon wins the Pac-10 but doesn’t move up to No. 2 in the BCS. Michigan beats Ohio State to win the Big Ten title. In this scenario, the Rose Bowl is contractually bound to make this game.

Oregon would hate this, because it has already defeated Michigan this year. Michigan would love the chance to avenge a 32-point loss.

Assorted nut options:

* Oregon vs. Kansas/Georgia/Texas. How: Oregon wins the Pac-10 but doesn’t make the BCS title game, Ohio State is unavailable, Michigan is not eligible, West Virginia suffers a second loss.

* Oregon vs. Oklahoma. Imagine the first Rose Bowl to start with an onside kick and an instant replay review. Halftime show: Tribute to Pac-10 officials?

How: Oklahoma falls to 11-2 after losing Big 12 title game.

* Arizona State vs. Michigan/Kansas/West Virginia/Georgia/Texas. How: If Oregon goes to the BCS title game and Arizona State finishes 11-1, the Sun Devils are a slam-dunk Rose Bowl choice. Georgia becomes available only if the Bulldogs finish 10-2 but don’t win the SEC East -- and yes, it can happen.

* USC vs. Michigan. For the love of Bo, No! But this has to be the Rose Bowl, by contract, if USC and Michigan end up winning their conferences.

Let’s get crazy:

* USC vs. Texas: Rematch of 2005 season classic. USC asks to start the game on fourth-and-two inside the Texas 50?

How: Oregon goes to the BCS title game and USC finishes 10-2. Texas finishes 10-2 but doesn’t win the Big 12 South.

* USC vs. LSU. We’d pay to see this pairing of schools that didn’t play in the 2003 title game but were favored to play for this year’s championship.

How: Rose Bowl takes USC with at-large choice and 11-2 LSU becomes at-large available with SEC title-game loss.

Let’s get really crazy:

* UCLA vs. Kansas. Rematch of last year’s West Regional Finals in NCAA basketball and the 1995 Aloha Bowl -- Terry Donahue’s last game as coach of the Bruins.

How: UCLA wins out and clinches the Pac-10 title. Rose Bowl takes 12-1 Kansas to replace Ohio State.

Off the charts:

* Connecticut vs. Kansas. (Alternate site: Allen Fieldhouse?)

* West Virginia vs. Kansas. (Schools might combine for 150 points.)

* Hawaii vs. Texas. (Colt Brennan vs. Colt McCoy, after a 21-gun salute).

How: If the Rose Bowl loses Ohio State and Oregon, there’s a chance neither the Pac-10 or Big Ten would have a BCS eligible school ranked in the top 14. What if Cal beats USC this weekend and Arizona State loses two of its final three games?

In that case, the Rose Bowl would have to go outside the partnership to make its game.

Go ahead and make your own Rose Bowl pairing -- pick one entree and select from a choice of side dishes. Wash it down with Gatorade and be glad Florida isn’t in the mix.

Then take two aspirin and call Mitch Dorger in the morning.

Blitz package

* Hawaii quarterback Brennan needs three touchdown passes against Fresno State to break the all-time NCAA mark of 121 held by Brigham Young’s Ty Detmer.

Brennan probably won’t get enough exposure to win this year’s Heisman Trophy, but Hawaii’s last four games will televised on ESPN or ESPN2

* It’s amazing in all the turmoil how many positive notes can be delivered about UCLA. 1: The Bruins still control their Rose Bowl fate. 2: The Bruins are 7-2 in their last nine Pac-10 games, tying this week’s opponent, Arizona State, for the best record in that stretch.

* You want to talk injuries? UCLA has been hit hard by injuries this season, but the Bruins are not the only Pac-10 team that has suffered.

In Saturday’s win over Arizona State, Oregon lost middle linebacker John Bacon for the year with a knee injury. He became the sixth Ducks player to be lost for the year in the last six weeks. Oregon is already without starting receivers Brian Paysinger and Cameron Colvin, running back Jeremiah Johnson and linebacker A.J. Tuitele.

In terms of depth, Oregon Coach Mike Bellotti says, “We’re at the razor’s edge.”

Oregon is also 8-1 and No. 3 in this week’s BCS standings.

* Memo to Notre Dame fans still livid that Charlie Weis passed on the chance to beat Navy near the end of regulation with a 41-yard field goal attempt: Weis is still owed $25 million on a contract that runs through 2015.

“I’m going to be here a long time,” Weis said. “I’m going to be judged by what happens when I leave. Lets see where I am when I walk out the door.”

Tally it up: Ty Willingham was 21-13 through 34 games as Notre Dame coach. Weis is 20-14.

* And you wonder why they’re screaming in Lincoln -- Nebraska ranks 118th out of 119 schools in rush defense. The Cornhuskers have yielded a school-record 359 points this year. Nebraska has given up 4,776 total yards, 291 yards shy of breaking the school record of 5,067. The bad news is, Nebraska still has two games left.

chris.dufresne@latimes.com