Second thoughts

By CHRIS DUFRESNE

Sept. 1, 2007 12 AM PT

Mr. West Coast Bias answers a few questions so burning that, after reading this, you may need Calamine lotion.

WHO’S NO. 2?

You don’t need to be smarter than a fifth grader (or Jim Harbaugh) to know USC’s Trojans are the number ones to beat -- they’re even ranked first in Sports Illustrated For Kids.

The surest shot of catching USC any century soon is to have three or four of its tailbacks get frustrated and transfer to your fine academic institutions. Emmanuel Moody makes one tailback down and nine to go.

Rules require two teams meet in the Bowl Championship Series championship game, played Jan. 7 at the Louisiana Superdome, so USC needs an escort:

The date candidates:

* West Virginia. Our sexy/risky/brilliant/foolish pick to win it all last year fell a few wagon wheels short, but we’re giving the Mountaineers one more shot at glory holler.

West Virginia finished 11-2 in 2006 -- not so shabby -- and here’s what we like about the Mountaineers in ‘07:

A: Rich Rodriguez, their coach, turned down Alabama to stay in Morgantown. Who does that? He is the mastermind of spreading the field with players and then running out of it. Rodriguez is to innovation this century what Steve Spurrier was in the 1990s.

B: The backfield: No team has a more potent backfield than West Virginia’s trio of quarterback Pat White, tailback Steve Slaton and fullback Owen Schmitt. White and Slaton combined for 2,963 rushing yards and 34 touchdowns. White also passed for 1,655 yards and 13 scores. Schmitt acts as the anvil.

C: The schedule. More than talent, almost, the race to the BCS requires a path of least resistance and West Virginia has the best chance of getting out of its conference (the Big East) at 12-0. The Mountaineers start the season ranked No. 6 in the coaches’ poll and open with Western Michigan, at Marshall, at Maryland, East Carolina. The possible hiccups are at South Florida, at Rutgers, and home against Louisville.

* Louisiana State. Pete Carroll vs. Les Miles, Pacific 10 Conference vs. the Southeastern Conference. Gucci vs. Gumbo. You could bill it “Mud-sling on the Mississippi.”

Finally, the national title matchup everyone wanted to see in 2003 before that year ended up “Splits-ville.”

* Texas. Celebrated the 2005 title by taking ’06 off, but the Longhorns should be back in championship form provided enough players can stay out of slings and the slammer.

* Virginia Tech. Given all the school has been through, tissue boxes might fly off store shelves if the Hokies made it all the way to New Orleans in January.

Virginia Tech is actually headed that way Sept. 8 for a critical nonconference showdown against LSU.

CAN FLORIDA REPEAT AS NATIONAL CHAMPION?

Sure, why not, the Florida basketball team did it. But don’t count on it. The hoops team, you’ll recall, returned all its starters.

The football Gators have a lot more moving parts and suffered gaping losses off the quick-strike defense that made Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith look as if he were running in slow-sand.

“We’re rebuilding and reloading,” Coach Urban Meyer says. “It is a transition.”

The good news is that the national title sent recruiting swamp-rocketing. Florida says adios to pocket passer Chris Leak but welcomes back sophomore Tim Tebow, a born leader . . . with his head.

“He’s not a big fan of sliding,” Meyer admits. “But the one thing with Tim is that he wants to be a great quarterback. He doesn’t want to just be a guy who can run over a linebacker.”

Look for Meyer to use Tebow more like he did Alex Smith at Utah in 2004, the year Utah went undefeated.

CAN A PLAYER NAMED COLT WIN THE HEISMAN TROPHY?

Two Colts, actually, have a chance. One is senior Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan, who passed for an NCAA-record 58 touchdown passes last year. The other is Texas sophomore Colt McCoy.

“He stole my thunder,” Brennan jokes of McCoy. “Everyone loved his name, but I had been there one year before him and no one really mentioned my name.”

Brennan is just happy his parents didn’t stick to their original plan.

They were going to name him Maverick.

“Thank God they didn’t pick that,” Brennan says.

IS THIS A REBUILDING YEAR FOR NOTRE DAME?

Yes, but it violates the Knute Rockne Act of 1924 to actually use that word.

Third-year Coach Charlie Weis obviously owes it to his fifth-year seniors to say otherwise, although Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan used to say “everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.”

Notre Dame lost the starting quarterback, tailback and two wide receivers off a 10-3 team that got crushed in losses to Michigan, USC and LSU.

In September, Notre Dame will play Georgia Tech, at Penn State, Michigan and at Purdue. October opens with a trip to UCLA. The Irish also host USC and Boston College, which has beaten the Irish four straight.

Weis has, as we’re fed to believe, generally upgraded the talent base and has two prized quarterbacks in the hopper. Jimmy Clausen is already on campus and Dayne Crist next year moves from Sherman Oaks Notre Dame to Indiana Oaks Notre Dame.

Watch out for the Irish . . . in 2008.

There are, as you’d expect, dissenting opinions.

“You guys don’t know the names yet,” senior tight end John Carlson says when asked about the next wave of Irish stars. “You’ll find out soon enough.”

WILL THIS BE LLOYD CARR’S LAST SEASON AT MICHIGAN?

That’s what everybody except Carr is saying, so it must be true, which means we get to mentally pack his bags and post the list of possible successors on Don’tLetTheDoorHitYou.com. A year ago, you could have bet the Big House on LSU’s Miles, a Michigan Man and former assistant under Bo Schembechler. But Miles is going to have some explaining to do during the Q&A; period about voting Florida ahead of Michigan in last year’s hotly contested battle for the No. 2 spot in the BCS.

One former Michigan player need not apply: Jim Harbaugh.

IS HAWAII THE NEW BOISE STATE?

Yes, and 80 is the new 60 -- just ask Joe Paterno.

The Warriors have the offense and the schedule to go 12-0, but the time zone-challenged program will need a lot of help from poll voters and their caffeine.

Hawaii is No. 24 in the preseason coaches’ poll, which means it’s going to be long slog up the BCS coconut tree. The weak schedule could cripple Hawaii in the BCS computers, but Boise proved last year you could get to a major bowl by beating Oregon State.

Caveat: If Texas Christian beats Texas in Austin on Sept. 8, TCU becomes this year’s Boise.

WHO IS GOING TO GET OUT FIRST, PATERNO OR BOWDEN?

If he doesn’t get the job done this year, our guess would be Bowden. Tommy. At Clemson.

Paterno at Penn State and Florida State’s Bobby Bowden have apparently opted for the coach-’till-you-croak plan. Paterno is 80, and this year will be picking his first All-Waste Management team based on mandatory Sunday cleanups of Beaver Stadium.

Bowden, who turns 78 in November and had the nerve to come back after a 7-6 campaign, spent the off-season rearranging his coaching staff in an attempt win his third national title.

What’s really going on here: Bowden has 366 career wins to Paterno’s 363. Neither legend wants to step down and hand the record to the other guy.

HOW WILL THE NEW CLOCK RULES AFFECT THE GAME?

It should be good for fans and, possibly, aspirin makers.

First, a fist-pump for the off-season abolishment of rules 3-2-5 and 3-2-5-e, which shortened game times at the expense of plays.

Kickoffs this year start at the 30 instead of the 35, which should promote clock movement by reducing the number of touchbacks. The new rule will also promote more kick returns and, in turn, possibly, more violent collisions.

“I suppose the potential would be there,” says Dave Parry, national coordinator of NCAA football officiating.

We eagerly await the long-term study.

HOW LONG IS NICK SABAN’S GRACE PERIOD AT ALABAMA?

It ended after the spring game.

No college coach making $4 million a year in America is under more pressure to win now, but that’s the way it goes in Tuscaloosa, the leader-in-the-townhouse when it comes to football dysfunction. Saban, seen by some as a surly sourpuss, spent the summer trying to win over hearts and minds when what he really needs to do is win at Auburn.

COULD YOU PLEASE PROJECT THE ENTIRE 2007 SEASON?

Not a problem. USC wins the national title. John David Booty claims the Heisman Trophy. The 11 major conference winners will be USC (Pac-10), Texas (Big 12), Wisconsin (Big Ten), LSU (SEC), Virginia Tech (Atlantic Coast), West Virginia (Big East), Hawaii (Western Athletic), TCU (Mountain West), Houston (Conference USA), Toledo (Mid-American), Troy (Sun Belt).

Navy will claim the Commander-in-Chiefs’ Trophy.

The surprise team will be Arizona State -- if the Sun Devils escape their home opener against San Jose State.

One Pac-10 school will claim to have been sabotaged by the BCS computers.

One AP voter will be AWOL when his final ballot is due.

One state assemblyman will introduce legislation to outlaw the BCS but withdraw it after his alma mater rises to No. 3 in the standings.

One ESPN programmer will propose televising a Mountain West game at 4:30 a.m.

USC and West Virginia will meet for the BCS national championship.

The other BCS bowls will be:

* Sugar: LSU vs. Oklahoma.

* Rose: UCLA vs. Wisconsin.

* Fiesta: Texas vs. Hawaii.

* Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Florida.