Swing Time?

Here’s the safest bet you can make on the Feb. 5 California primary: More independents will vote for a Democrat than a Republican.

You can slam a $20 bill on the bar--in fact, you can slam down your children’s college fund--because although many of them may not know it, independents are allowed to vote for a Democrat but not a Republican in the upcoming contest.

In California, the modified closed primary means that parties decide whether unaffiliated voters participate. In a rare display of unity, the Greens, Libertarians, Peace and Freedom Party and GOP all restricted their primaries to registered members.

So independents can choose to vote for a Democratic candidate or for one of the three contenders from the American Independent Party, including one who calls himself Mad Max.

Many pundits are predicting that this less predictable group of voters could sway the primary. But Democratic officials figure that would happen only in a tight contest. In the 2004 primary, independents cast only about 207,000 votes for Democratic candidates, less than 7% of the total.

Not surprisingly, Democratic candidates are dialing like crazy for “decline-to-states,” as independents are known in the trade. Nearly 1 in 5 Californians fits that description.

But it takes more than a phone call from a Democratic volunteer to take action. Independents have to know how to get their hands on the right ballot. Absentee voters had to call or write their registrar to request the ballot they wanted.

If you’re heading to the polls, just ask the poll workers for your choice of ballot--provided your choice is Democratic or American Independent.