A brilliant outlook for 'The Dark Knight'

By Josh Friedman

July 18, 2008 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

“The Dark Knight,” the long-awaited superhero sequel from Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures, opens today with several records -- official or otherwise -- already banked.

The follow-up to “Batman Begins” has gotten the heaviest hype yet from rabid fan websites such as Ain’t It Cool News, where the early consensus was that it makes “Citizen Kane” look like a student film. Thanks to boffo advance ticket sales this week, “The Dark Knight” has generated the most news releases ever from Fandango and MovieTickets.com. And it launches at an unprecedented 4,366 theaters in the U.S. and Canada, 94 of them Imax.

The record Hollywood is watching, of course, is the $151.1 million in opening weekend grosses racked up by Sony Pictures’ “Spider-Man III” in May 2007. Consumer tracking indicates that Bruce Wayne could knock Peter Parker off his perch, but a crowded market that also includes the new musical “Mamma Mia!” stacks the odds slightly against the caped crusader.

“The Dark Knight,” made for an estimated $180 million and rated PG-13 for “intense sequences of violence and some menace,” was the first pick of 66% of this weekend’s likely moviegoers in one tracking survey.

The film, directed by Christopher Nolan and starring Christian Bale as Batman and the late Heath Ledger as the Joker, is drawing raves from critics and early Oscar buzz for Ledger’s performance as the villain.

The fact that moviegoers have so many choices this weekend could keep “The Dark Knight” under $120 million. “Spider-Man III” and most of the other top openers, including the first “Spider-Man,” came out in May rather than the heart of summer, giving them clearer sailing. “The Dark Knight” faces not only “Mamma Mia!,” which could open to $30 million or more in the U.S., but also such holdover films as “Hancock” and “Hellboy II: The Golden Army,” which appeal to much of the same young male audience.

The only July release to open above $100 million was 2006’s “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” which launched at $135.6 million and ranks No. 2 on the all-time chart. Projector sees “The Dark Knight” amassing about $140 million this weekend -- in other words, more booty than Capt. Jack Sparrow but not quite as much box-office bite as Spidey.

Warner’s president of domestic distribution, Dan Fellman, says “the realistic goal” is more like $90 million.

“I’m not trying to manage expectations, but it’s going to sound like I am,” he said. Well, maybe just a tad.

Each of the five previous live-action Batman films opened in the $40-million-to-$53-million range, Fellman noted.

“For us to do the kind of business some people are talking about, the total box office would have to expand close to 70%,” he said, adding: “I ask you to use common sense.”

If Projector did that he probably wouldn’t still be in the newspaper industry.

Universal Pictures’ “Mamma Mia!,” adapted from the feel-good stage musical set to Abba’s, um, classic songs, was produced for about $52 million, according to an executive at the studio. It got off to a roaring start last weekend overseas, and through Wednesday had grossed $41.7 million from 12 English-speaking markets. No surprise, considering the stage play has taken in more than $2 billion worldwide.

The PG-13 movie, starring Meryl Streep, Amanda Seyfried and Pierce Brosnan, will be huge among females over 25. Mrs. Projector has been talking it up and humming “Dancing Queen” at the breakfast table for what seems like months.

Today’s other major release, 20th Century Fox’s animated, G-rated “Space Chimps,” looks like a non-factor. People love space; people love chimps. Put ‘em together, not so much.

josh.friedman@latimes.com

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Weekend Forecast

In what could add up to a blockbuster weekend for Hollywood, the Batman adventure “The Dark Knight” is expected to open huge, while the musical “Mamma Mia!” offers a strong counterprogramming alternative. Along with the movies listed below, contenders to make the top 10 include “Meet Dave.” These figures are The Times’ predictions. Studios will issue weekend estimates Sunday and actual results Monday.

*--* Movie (studio) 3-day prediction(millions) Through the weekend Weeks

1 The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) $141.5 $141.5 1

2 Mamma Mia! (Universal) 29.5 29.5 1

3 Hancock (Sony) 15.0 192.8 3

4 Hellboy II: The Golden Army 12.7 59.5 2 (Universal)

5 Journey to the Center of the Earth 10.8 42.2 2 (Warner Bros.)

6 Wall-E (Disney) 9.6 182.4 4

7 Wanted (Universal) 5.7 124.1 4

8 Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) 4.7 4.7 1

9 Get Smart (Warner Bros.) 3.9 119.5 5

10 Kung Fu Panda (Paramount) 2.3 207.1 7 *--*

Source: Times research