California voters’ foul mood runs deep, wide

The current attitude of California voters can be summed up like this: A pox on politicians of both parties.

There’s one exception: Barack Obama, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

In the statewide survey released today, 61% of likely voters hold a favorable opinion of the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. Only 34% have an unfavorable view. In sharp contrast, just 45% have a favorable opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton, who won the California primary early last month. More -- 52% -- have an unfavorable view of her.

The voters’ opinion of presumptive Republican nominee John McCain is barely positive: 49% favorable to 45% unfavorable.

The poll was conducted March 11-18 while controversy boiled over the incendiary sermons of Obama’s pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. But the survey had all but ended before the Illinois senator gave a major speech on race in America, which seemed to halt his slide in national popularity.

Grumpy Californians are demanding change, the policy institute’s poll confirms, and Obama apparently represents that in the view of voters -- most notably swing-voting independents.

In a hypothetical November match-up, Obama runs significantly better than Clinton against McCain: Obama 49%, McCain 40%; Clinton 46%, McCain 43%.

Many events, some unforeseen, will unfold before the November election. So while interesting, these particular poll numbers are of questionable importance.

The most important finding of the survey was the voters’ nasty mood.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s popularity has noticeably declined: 49% of likely voters currently approve of his job performance, a 14-point drop since December. During that span, he has failed to deliver healthcare reform and proposed 10% across-the-board spending cuts in state services, including education.

But even Democratic U.S. Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer have suffered popularity losses, with fewer than half the voters now approving of how they handle their jobs. (Feinstein 49%, Boxer 44%.)

Only 27% approve of President Bush. But the Legislature is more unpopular. A mere 25% approve of its performance. That’s a 10-point slip since December. Similarly, just 30% approve of Congress’ job-handling.

“People want some breakthrough in all this policy gridlock,” asserts Mark Baldassare, the policy institute’s president and pollster. “Whether it’s a budget plan from Sacramento that’s going to help more than hurt or an economic plan from Washington, they’re not seeing it right now. They’re not seeing leadership in response to the fiscal and economic crises. And they’re concerned about the direction of the state and nation.”

Baldassare says people are about as sour as they were back in 2003, during the recall of Gov. Gray Davis. In fact, in 10 years of polling for the institute, he hasn’t seen numbers this pessimistic about the economy.

Nearly two-thirds of California adults think the state is headed in the wrong direction, the poll shows. Three-fourths expect bad times economically in the next year. And while economists and politicians argue about whether California is in a recession, 72% of the public thinks we’re in one.

“For a while -- after the recall, and again in 2006 -- people were holding out hope that California, at least, had some control over its destiny,” the pollster says. “That didn’t last very long. We’ve now entered a time when people feel things aren’t working for the governor and Legislature, and for the president and Congress.”

The lion’s share of likely voters, 79%, believes that Sacramento’s nagging budget deficit is “a big problem.” A majority, 57%, also are “very concerned” about proposed spending cuts, a 16-point jump since January.

“The upshot,” Baldassare says, “is that Californians are now apparently more willing to consider tax increases” to help the state make ends meet.

Asked how they’d prefer to close the budget gap, 56% said taxes should be part of the fix: 47% calling for a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, and 9% opting for mostly tax hikes.

And most aren’t blaming illegal immigrants, a favorite target of conservatives and talk-show hosts; 52% of voters say they’re “a benefit to California because of their hard work” and 41% call them “a burden because they use public services.”

Voters seem more angry at Sacramento and Washington than at illegal immigrants.

Roughly three-fourths believe that the state’s and nation’s capitols can be trusted “only some” or “none of the time to do what is right.” There’s also a deep-seated conviction that the state and federal governments are “run by a few big interests looking out for themselves.”

This is not a good year for politicians to be facing their constituents.

Happily for the governor and other statewide officials, they’re not up for reelection. Neither are California’s two U.S. senators.

Legislators and Congress members are running for reelection -- at least technically. Fortunately for them, most of their districts have been so gerrymandered by self-serving lawmakers that they’ll face little competition in November.

Voters aren’t just in the mood for change. They seem revved for a major upheaval. That could happen in the presidential election. But the odds are stacked against Californians changing the cast of characters in their Legislature or congressional delegation because those elections have pretty much been rigged.

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george.skelton@latimes.com