CBS, Fox, CW are fall’s early risers

TV EXECUTIVES like to say that you can’t judge anything by a couple of weeks’ worth of ratings. Or at least that’s what they like to say when those ratings don’t look so hot.

But we’re going to throw such caution to the wind here. Based on the first wave of ratings -- and mind you, we’re barely two weeks into the regular season, with the financial meltdown and a heated presidential campaign causing viewing disruptions right and left, so to speak -- three networks have a clear advantage. The other two have set themselves up for a long autumn.

After a woozy start, Fox seems to be getting exactly what it wanted in the sci-fi thriller “Fringe”: a buzz-y show that can perk up its fall numbers. CBS has done an impressive job bringing back its mashed-potatoes-and-gravy lineup of procedurals (especially the immensely popular “NCIS”) and comedies.

And at the CW, an unexpectedly strong return for “Gossip Girl” and a solid start for “90210” have made industry prognosticators stop predicting the network’s imminent demise, at least for now.

Meantime, the news has swung from bad to worse for NBC’s ratings, which the first week of the season eroded 15% compared with last year among its core young-adult viewers. (Excluding the high-rated Sunday NFL games, the network was down 21%.)

ABC gambled that it could relaunch new shows from last season that went dark during the three-month writers strike. But that bet blew up Wednesday when the return of “Pushing Daisies,” “Dirty Sexy Money” and “Private Practice” delivered surprisingly low numbers.

OK, but what does all this mean?

For starters, the results show how, eight months after it ended, the writers strike remains a shadow that hangs over broadcasters. Of course, all the network executives promised before the strike that they were well prepared for any work stoppage. Really, what else could they say -- that they’d simply ignored all the gathering storm clouds last year and were leaving work early to play golf?

But it’s increasingly apparent that, once the strike hit, each network made crucial decisions that would, over time, help lead them to their current position. More about those decisions in a minute.

Let’s not forget, though, that labor unrest still plagues the movie and TV industries, despite -- or is that because of? -- the fact that the U.S. is teetering on the verge of a recession and populist rage over wealth disparity is reaching epic levels, as evidenced by intense voter reaction to the $700-billion Wall Street bailout that finally passed the House of Representatives on Friday.

Talks between the Screen Actors Guild and the studios have been at a standstill since June 30. Officials from both sides tried to bend news of the nation’s economic woes to their advantage in public statements on the impasse last week.

This fall’s returns also make clear that the networks with the most diverse schedules, such as, say, CBS, are the ones that do the best. Unlike cable networks, which have the luxury of focusing on one or two original series at a time, broadcasters are, even in this day of fragmented media, still expected to do many things well: scripted comedies and dramas, reality programs, news, special events.

At the moment, NBC and ABC are trying to use reality shows (“The Biggest Loser,” “Dancing With the Stars”) to mask underlying weaknesses in developing new scripted material.

Take a look at CBS. True, the network doesn’t have the world’s sexiest shows (except to officials at the conservative watchdog Parents Television Council, which is pitching a fit about nudity on “Survivor”). But the network has patiently cultivated audiences for such disparate series as the sober procedural “NCIS” (which last week delivered a commanding 17.5 million total viewers, making it among the nation’s most-watched series, according to Nielsen Media Research) and the quirky sitcom “How I Met Your Mother.”

Equally important, once the strike was over, executives buckled down, hustled pilots into production and delivered something resembling a normal fall lineup despite the three-month knockoff.

As a result, CBS had plenty of fresh shows for viewers, including a new crime drama, “The Mentalist,” and the critically acclaimed sitcom “Worst Week.” The network’s trend- lines look good: Viewership was up 9% the first three days of last week compared with the same period last year -- and CBS’ top show, “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation,” doesn’t even come back until Thursday.

ABC took the opposite tack. Citing the strike interruption, the network decided to unveil only one new scripted show this fall: the time-travel cop drama “Life on Mars,” premiering Thursday. In late summer, it ordered additional new series, but those won’t hit the airwaves for months.

Viewers don’t seem interested in “Pushing Daisies,” despite its repackaging, although female-skewing hits “Desperate Housewives” and “Grey’s Anatomy” remain powerful.

The numbers for “Dancing” are softening this season. And Wednesdays, capped by the underperforming “Grey’s” spinoff “Private Practice,” don’t look promising.

In short, ABC’s card hand is beginning to look problematic, despite the fact that the network convincingly won the first week in the ratings. For the first three days of last week -- Thursday was an anomaly due to the vice presidential debate -- ABC slid an alarming 29% among adults ages 18 to 49 compared with the same period last year.

At NBC, the problem is not a lack of new programming but perhaps the way it went about developing material. Executives used the strike as part of a rationale for a new strategy that would reduce the number of pilots they make and foster more programs in partnership with advertisers.

But the ratings haven’t been good for “Knight Rider,” an early test of that approach. (The bulk of NBC’s new shows have yet to premiere, including the comedy “Kath & Kim,” which arrives this week, followed later by “My Own Worst Enemy” and “Crusoe.”) Meantime, the network continues to suffer mightily for the mishandling of “Heroes,” which may not be able to recover from its creatively weak start to the second season.

And what about Fox? Well, as this column noted at the time, the No. 1 network entered the strike from a position of strength. And now the network is making progress in fixing the September-December period, where it usually has had to sit on the sidelines until “American Idol” revives its fortunes every January.

Now, there’s certainly plenty that hasn’t worked for Fox this year. The critically drubbed comedy “Do Not Disturb” earned the dubious distinction of becoming the fall season’s first casualty. And “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles” hasn’t come back with much force.

At least Fox has “Fringe.” The network scheduled the drama at 9 p.m. Tuesday, where it had a disappointing premiere. But then “House” arrived as a lead-in the following week, and since then “Fringe” has looked like a show that’s going to stick around (the network gave it a full-season order last week).

True, ratings are down for “House” compared with last year, probably because fewer people are watching TV at 8 p.m. than later in the evening. And “Fringe” could prove a fake hit, a show that looks promising but can only exist as a “satellite show” behind something stronger, like “House.” For now Fox executives look as if they may enjoy a net gain from a clever scheduling play, emerging with two strong dramas instead of one.

Of course, Fox officials didn’t do this all by themselves. They had some help from their rivals. NBC is punting with two hours of “The Biggest Loser: Families.” And ABC is squaring off against “House” with its only other new fall show. It’s called “Opportunity Knocks.”

--

The Channel Island column runs every Monday in Calendar.

Contact Scott Collins at scott.collins @latimes.com