SERIOUS CONTENDERS

Todd Phillips believes it’s a bit of a stretch to think his twisted shaggy-dog tale “The Hangover” might snag a Golden Globe nomination. And don’t even get him started on what a possible nod in the Globes’ best musical or comedy film category might mean for his movie’s Oscar chances.

“Honestly, that would be absolutely insane,” Phillips says by phone, during a break from filming his latest comedy, “Due Date,” with Robert Downey Jr.

“Then again, maybe Warners should start a campaign: ‘C’mon! Make it No. 10!’ ” Phillips continues, referring to the Academy Awards’ expanded best picture category this year. And, in fact, that campaign -- or something like it -- is on, starting with the “For your consideration” ad on the Nov. 23 cover of Variety. “Really . . . we’re not asking for a first-place vote. But a ninth or 10th place? Why not?” Phillips adds.

Why not, indeed? With the academy’s new math this year, the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.’s best musical or comedy motion picture category might take on added significance if Oscar voters decide to think outside the box. (Granted, that’s a big if.) With 10 slots in the best picture race, academy members will have the opportunity to fill out their ballots with something other than indie dramas and well-meaning history lessons.

This year’s Globe (and potential Oscar) musical and comedy contenders form a particularly deep group, including romantic comedies both polished (Nancy Meyers’ “It’s Complicated”) and genre-busting (“(500) Days of Summer”), bleak humor (the Coen brothers’ “A Serious Man”) and light (“Julie & Julia”) and those that comfortably mix the two (“The Hangover” and Steven Soderbergh’s corporate caper saga “The Informant!”).

And, of course, there’s “Nine,” Rob Marshall’s adaptation of the Tony Award-winning musical of the same name inspired by Federico Fellini’s movie “8 1/2 .” “Nine,” which opens later this month, has an obvious appeal to the HFPA’s international journalists, both in its cast (Daniel Day-Lewis, Penélope Cruz, Marion Cotillard, Judi Dench and Sophia Loren pretty much have Europe covered) and subject matter (Fellini!).

“For the Globes, ‘Nine’ is a sure thing,” says film historian David Thomson. “What’s nice -- and it was a clever decision on their part -- is their split between comedy and drama. They realized that the academy was shutting comedies out. If they opened up the best picture category, they could get a whole extra range of stars coming to their event, which, obviously, is in their best interest.”

The HFPA’s recent track record certainly favors “Nine.” This decade, the organization has given its best musical or comedy film award to “Moulin Rouge!,” “Chicago,” “Dreamgirls” and “Sweeney Todd” (although “Mamma Mia!” did not earn a win). And when Hollywood hasn’t offered them a lavish musical, Globe voters have gone for movies with strong musical themes. (“Walk the Line” and “Almost Famous” were both winners.)

Could that history bode well for “(500) Days of Summer”? After all, Joseph Gordon-Levitt does dance his way through downtown Los Angeles to Hall & Oates’ “You Make My Dreams” during one of the film’s signature sequences.

“Yeah, we’re a musical and a comedy!” says “(500) Days” director Marc Webb. “But comedy is a tricky thing. You don’t know what people will respond to. Besides, I always lose my Oscar pool. You can’t anticipate what the Globes or the academy will do.”

“Nine” seems like a foregone conclusion for the academy. But what other Globe comedy contenders might sneak in? (Note: Paramount has submitted “Up in the Air” in the Globes’ drama category.) The Coens have a history with the academy, and “A Serious Man” deals with a host of cosmic issues. “Julie & Julia” and “It’s Complicated” both have Meryl Streep, an actress whose presence attracts award attention for herself and her movies.

But film critic Leonard Maltin cautions that just because the academy has doubled its best picture list doesn’t mean members are going to change their voting patterns overnight. “Academy voters like ‘prestige pictures,’ and I think that tradition is a fine thing,” Maltin says. “I don’t think anyone objects to recognizing popular films. But there’s a certain pedigree in the voting that’s probably going to remain the same for the foreseeable future, at least until the makeup of the academy evolves.”

Adds Thomson: “Most people in the academy would say, ‘Yeah, I’d love to recognize a comedy if there was something I thought was good enough.’ But then, you go back historically and you see that classic comedies and comedians have gone completely unnoticed. The academy has a long history in being stuffy and stuck up. They act upon the assumption that if you’re going to win the big prize, the movie has to be extra dramatic and tragic.”

There have been exceptions among the 81 movies to win best picture -- but just a few. “It Happened One Night,” “You Can’t Take It With You,” “The Apartment,” “Annie Hall” and “Shakespeare in Love” are the only comedies to take Oscar’s top prize.

Phillips, for one, believes he has a solution, one he plans to implement when it comes time to shoot “The Hangover 2” next year. “We’re going to put the girl from ‘Precious’ in it,” he jokes. “I mean, she’s amazing, right? She’ll put us over the hump with voters next time around.”

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