Nationals will draft Stephen Strasburg; after that, it’s anybody’s guess

The only certainty about today’s baseball draft is that the Washington Nationals, picking first, will choose right-handed pitcher Stephen Strasburg of San Diego State. Then come the games -- the guessing game, the waiting game and the negotiating game.

Commissioner Bud Selig has suggested to owners that bonuses to players selected in the first five rounds be cut by 10% from last year, when the recommendations ranged from $150,000 to $4 million. But that flies in the face of expectations that Strasburg will command a record-setting deal. Teams have until Aug. 15 to sign their choices.

The draft will begin at 3 p.m. PDT and the first round will be televised live on MLB.com. Here’s a look at the some of the local players expected to go in the very early rounds:

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From high school

Tyler Matzek, Mission Viejo Capistrano Valley, pitcher: He’s the best left-handed high school pitching prospect in the draft and proved it during the Southern Section playoffs, giving up no runs in 18 1/3 innings while going 4-0, with his fastball hitting 97 mph.

Matt Hobgood, Norco, pitcher and first base: At 6 feet 4, 250 pounds, with power at the plate and on the mound, Hobgood is a polished prospect who appears well prepared to handle the grind and unpredictable environment of the minor leagues. He was selected the Gatorade national player of the year after hitting 21 home runs and going 11-1 on the mound.

Matt Davidson, Yucaipa, third base: He is perhaps the top hitter in the Southland, having batted .553 with 11 home runs and 18 doubles. He’s 6-4, 225 pounds and a USC signee.

Jiovanni Mier, La Verne Bonita, shortstop: Mier also has signed with USC, but he’s considered the best defensively in the Southland and probably won’t make it to college.

Tyler Skaggs, Santa Monica, pitcher: An ankle injury late in the season forced the left-hander to the sideline for several weeks. His velocity was inconsistent, but at his best Skaggs left little doubt his fastball and curveball were worthy of first-round consideration.

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From college

Grant Green, USC, shortstop: Last summer, Green batted .348 using wood bats in the Cape Cod League and was selected the league’s top pro prospect. The former Anaheim Canyon High standout led USC in hitting this season with a .374 average.

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Holdout

Tanner Scheppers, who played at Dana Hills High, was Fresno State’s best pitcher last season until he was injured before the Bulldogs made their national championship-winning run at the College World Series. After undergoing shoulder surgery, he was a second-round draft choice of the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, he failed to sign and, after choosing to make his comeback with the Independent League St. Paul (Minn.) Saints, is expected to go early in the first round.

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No guarantees

Here are the last five No. 1 overall picks and where they are now:

2008: Timothy Beckham, a shortstop from Griffin, Ga., received a $6.15-million signing bonus from the Tampa Bay Rays and went on to hit .246 in rookie ball.

2007: David Price, a left-handed pitcher from Vanderbilt, is in the Rays’ starting rotation.

2006: Luke Hochevar is a starting pitcher for the Kansas City Royals.

2005: Justin Upton plays right field for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

2004: Matthew Bush, a shortstop and pitcher, was chosen by the San Diego Padres from San Diego Mission Bay High. Traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in February, he was released on April 1 after the latest in a series of off-the-field incidents.

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eric.sondheimer@latimes.com

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latimes.com/sports

Dissecting the draft

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