The first reward should be in boosted ticket sales
After amassing more than $2 billion in global ticket sales, “Avatar” seems like the last film that would get a financial boost from Tuesday’s Oscar nominations. But Academy Award recognition could bring surprising benefits to even the least needy candidates.
Though James Cameron’s blockbuster has been atop the box office charts for seven weeks, there is still a potentially untapped audience: infrequent moviegoers, about 12% of the U.S. population who typically see just one film a year.
“There are plenty of people around the world who are not frequent moviegoers and may be motivated by the nominations,” said Tom Rothman, chairman of the film’s distributor 20th Century Fox. With nine nominations, he said, “We expect it to be a meaningful help to the box office.”
There are several small, low-cost movies playing in far fewer theaters that could see a significant uptick in ticket sales as the studios behind them attempt to capitalize on Oscar momentum. Nominees such as “The Hurt Locker,” “Crazy Heart,” “Precious” and “An Education” will expand their runs Friday.This year the commercial benefit of top Oscar nominations is murkier than ever because there are 10 best picture nominees instead of the traditional five. Some studios may have a harder time reigniting interest in their films because they could get lost in the crowd.
Summit Entertainment’s Iraq drama “The Hurt Locker,” which has been on DVD since January and is still in 28 theaters, will extend its theatrical run to about 100 locations to seize on its nine nominations. Considered a front-runner for best picture against “Avatar,” the film’s take could grow well beyond its modest $12.7-million gross.
Other studios intentionally designed their release strategies with Oscar nominations in mind.
Fox Searchlight’s country music drama “Crazy Heart” and Sony’s “An Education” have slowly rolled out over the last several months with major expansions planned to more than 700 theaters. Fox Searchlight President Steve Gilula said his movie’s three nominations, including lead actor for Jeff Bridges, could translate into “millions and millions of dollars,” to help boost the film’s $6.7-million take. With only $8.8 million, “An Education” could also see a similar rise.
Lionsgate’s “Precious,” with six nominations including best picture, may find its audience expand beyond the primarily African American moviegoers who have driven the drama to $45.5 million. The film will triple its run to more than 650 cinemas. “This gives us a platform to go back into the marketplace and generate an even broader base for the film,” said Joe Drake, president of Lionsgate’s motion picture group.
Several best picture nominees already released on DVD could also benefit. The Weinstein Co. Co-Chairman Harvey Weinstein said he believes “Inglorious Basterds” could sell an additional 1 million DVD units on top of the 3 million it’s already sold. Focus Features’ “A Serious Man” comes out on DVD next Tuesday.
“The basic trend on sales and rentals is that they shrink every week,” said Tom Adams of video research firm Adams Media Research. “A nomination seems to slow the rate at which they decay.”
For Warner Bros.’ “The Blind Side,” which got best picture and actress nods, Oscar glory may have its biggest influence abroad. The inspirational drama is wrapping up its domestic run with $237 million and will debut internationally by March. Studio executives with nominated films will be tallying ticket and DVD sales in the coming weeks, but at the same time they have their eye on taking home the big prize.
“While helping box office is certainly important, even more so is that the best picture Oscar tells generations to come that the winning film has enduring significance,” said Fox’s Rothman.
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