Gold Derby: Familiar faces and a ‘Tonight Show’ showdown

Lots of past Emmy favorites are back this year with notable programs in the miniseries, TV movie and variety show categories, including actors Doris Roberts and Al Pacino, miniseries producers Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks, plus telethon organizer George Clooney. But most noteworthy are Conan O’Brien and Jay Leno competing for best variety series with rival versions of “The Tonight Show.” You can almost hear Ed McMahon yelping, “Eow!”

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FOR THE RECORD:
Emmy predictions: In Thursday’s Envelope section, the Gold Derby column about Emmy Award predictions included a photograph of Kate Beckinsale in a 1996 production of “Emma.” The photo should have depicted the 2009 PBS production of “Emma” that starred Romola Garai as Emma Woodhouse. —

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TV MOVIES

Front-runners

“A Dog Year,” HBO

“ Georgia O’Keeffe,” Lifetime

“The Special Relationship,” HBO

“Temple Grandin,” HBO

“When Love Is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story,” CBS

“You Don’t Know Jack,” HBO

Spotlight: HBO has had a stranglehold on this category for the last 17 years, winning 15 times, including the last six consecutive contests. Now it has more contenders than there there are slots in the category: “A Dog Year,” “Einstein & Eddington,” “A Number,” “The Special Relationship,” Temple Grandin” and “You Don’t Know Jack.”

Possible

“Amish Grace,” Lifetime

“The Diary of Anne Frank,” PBS

“Einstein & Eddington,” HBO

“Endgame,” PBS

“Jesse Stone: No Remorse,” CBS

“A Number,” HBO

“Who Is Clark Rockefeller?” Lifetime

MINISERIES

Front-runners

“Emma,” PBS

“The Pacific,” HBO

“The Prisoner,” AMC

“Return to Cranford,” PBS

Spotlight: Last year’s victory by “Little Dorrit” over Iraq war saga “Generation Kill” proved how formidable lofty British costume dramas can be even over action-packed battle dramas. Now can “Emma” or “Return to Cranford” demolish “The Pacific”? An earlier World War II epic produced by Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks blasted all rivals: “Band of Brothers” (2002).

Possible

“Alice,” Syfy

“Occupation,” BBC America

“Small Island,” PBS

LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINISERIES

Jeff Bridges, “A Dog Year”

James Badge Dale, “The Pacific”

William Hurt, “Endgame”

Jeremy Irons, “Georgia O’Keeffe”

Ian McKellen, “The Prisoner”

Al Pacino, “You Don’t Know Jack”

Dennis Quaid, “The Special Relationship”

Michael Sheen, “The Special Relationship”

Spotlight: Just like Oscars voters, Emmy judges are suckers for stars who portray famous real-life people (eight of the last 10 winners in this category). Two even won for playing the same real icon: Winston Churchill ( Albert Finney, Brendan Gleeson). Michael Sheen now stars as another British prime minister, Tony Blair, but he faces a tough battle against Al Pacino as Jack “Dr. Death” Kevorkian.

Possible

Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Endgame”

Tom Hiddleston, “Return to Cranford”

Rhys Ifans, “A Number”

Rob Lowe, “Too Late to Say Goodbye”

James Nesbitt, “Occupation”

Tom Selleck, “Jesse Stone: No Remorse”

Andy Serkis, “Einstein and Eddington”

David Tennant, “Einstein and Eddington”

David Tennant, “Hamlet”

Joe Mazzello, “The Pacific”

Eric McCormack, “Who Is Clark Rockefeller?”

Jonny Lee Miller, “Emma”

Barry Pepper, “When Love Is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story”

Jon Seda, “The Pacific”

Tom Wilkinson, “A Number”

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE/MINISERIES

Front-runners

Joan Allen, “Georgia O’Keeffe”

Claire Danes, “Temple Grandin”

Hope Davis, “The Special Relationship”

Judi Dench, “Return to Cranford”

Romola Garai, “Emma”

Ellie Kendrick, “The Diary of Anne Frank”

Helen McCrory, “The Special Relationship”

Winona Ryder, “When Love Is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story”

Maggie Smith, “Capturing Mary”

Ruth Wilson, “The Prisoner”

Spotlight: A big comeback has eluded Winona Ryder since her 2001 shoplifting scandal, but Emmy recognition for her portrayal of the valiantly patient wife of Alcoholics Anonymous founder Bill Wilson could help to change that. There’s reason for optimism. Emmy voters are a forgiving bunch. Charlie Sheen and Robert Downey Jr. once rallied from old scandals to reap Emmy nominations for Sheen’s “Two and a Half Men” and Downey’s guest turn on “ Ally McBeal.”

Possible

Tammy Blanchard, “Amish Grace”

Kristin Chenoweth, “12 Men of Christmas”

Angie Dickinson, “Mending Fences”

Andie MacDowell, “The Front”

Julia Ormond, “The Wronged Man”

Doris Roberts, “Mrs. Miracle”

Caterina Scorsone, “Alice”

Jill Scott, “Sins of the Mother”

Cybill Shepherd, “Mrs. Washington Goes to Smith”

VARIETY SERIES

Front-runners

“The Colbert Report,” Comedy Central

“The Daily Show With Jon Stewart,” Comedy Central

“Late Night With Jimmy Fallon,” NBC

“Late Show With David Letterman,” CBS

“The Mo’Nique Show,” BET

“Saturday Night Live,” NBC

“The Tonight Show With Conan O’Brien,” NBC

“The Tonight Show With Jay Leno,” NBC

Spotlight: The battle between Jay Leno’s and Conan O’Brien’s rival versions of “The Tonight Show” isn’t over just because O’Brien left NBC to launch a new program on TBS in November. Both “Tonight” versions compete in this Emmy contest (Conan submitted his version, NBC entered Jay’s) where they’ll clash with “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart” — which has won the race seven years in a row. Another formidable rival: BET network’s “The Mo’Nique Show,” starring the “Precious” actress who recently swept the film awards.

Possible

“Chelsea Lately,” E! Entertainment

“Important Things With Demetri Martin,” Comedy Central

“ Jimmy Kimmel Live,” ABC

“Late Late Show With Craig Ferguson,” CBS

“Lopez Tonight,” TBS

“Real Time With Bill Maher,” HBO

“State of the Union,” Showtime

“The Wanda Sykes Show,” Fox

VARIETY SPECIAL

Front-runners

“Bill Maher … But I’m Not Wrong,” HBO

“ George Lopez: Tall, Dark & Chicano,” HBO

“Hope for Haiti Now,” all networks

“ Kathy Griffin: Balls of Steel,” Bravo

“Kennedy Center Honors: A Celebration of the Performing Arts,” CBS

“ Robin Williams: Weapons of Self Destruction,” HBO

“25th Anniversary Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Concert,” HBO

Spotlight: George Clooney quickly organized a star-studded telethon to raise funds for earthquake-stricken Haiti, much as he did for victims of Sept. 11 with “America: A Tribute to Heroes,” which won this race in 2002. The annual Kennedy Center salute has taken this award five times, most recently last year.

Possible

“Great Performances ( Andrea Bocelli & David Foster),” PBS

“ Carrie Underwood: An All-Star Holiday Special,” Fox

“The Comedy Central Roast of Joan Rivers,” Comedy Central

“ Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve With Ryan Seacrest 2010,” ABC

“Ellen’s Bigger, Longer & Wider Show,” TBS

“ Jennifer Hudson: I’ll Be Home for Christmas,” ABC

“Wanda Sykes: I’ma Be Me,” HBO