Slowdown in international visitors may be the ‘Trump Slump’ experts have predicted
The harsh words uttered by Donald Trump about Muslims and Mexicans had travel industry leaders worried that international visitors would feel unwelcome and stay away from the U.S. if he became president.
Until now, travel data had showed little, if any, change in the popularity of the U.S. as a tourist destination since Trump took office on Jan. 20.
But industry leaders say new data — based on the latest reports from the U.S. Department of Commerce, air travel booking sites and international aviation groups — show that international travel to the U.S. has, indeed, weakened since January.
The good news for the travel industry is that demand for domestic travel remains strong enough to push the overall number of travelers who fly and book hotels in the U.S. up 1.2% year-over-year, projected through January 2018.
“While forward-looking bookings and searches remain positive, the pace of growth is markedly slower from this time last year,” according to the latest travel trend report by the the global economics advisory firm, Oxford Economics. The report was commissioned by the U.S. Travel Assn., the trade group for the nation’s travel industry.
The report calculates an index that represents travel volume in the U.S., both international and domestic. Any score on the index above 50 represents growth. A score below 50 is a decline. For the six-month period ended July 31, the report ranked the domestic U.S. travel market at 51.4, while the international market was ranked at 49.4.
Adam Sacks, president of Oxford Economics, said stagnant wages and the fear that Trump may fail to make good on his campaign promises could jeopardize future domestic travel growth.
“Additionally, the president’s continued rhetoric and policies weigh heavily on the intentional inbound market outlook,” Sacks added.
A report issued last week by the International Air Transport Assn, the trade group for the world’s airlines, warned that international travel in North America appears to be weakening, but it did not blame Trump’s rhetoric.
“Anecdotal evidence suggests that inbound demand is being negatively influenced by the additional security measures in place for travel to the US,” the report said.
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