The Gold Standard: Oscar forecast

If a critically championed movie earns Oscar nominations for art direction, editing, score, makeup and sound, could all that support translate into a best picture nod as well?

That’s the question surrounding Martin Scorsese’s beautifully crafted “Hugo,” which has been generating off-the-chart reactions at various guild screenings for the past couple of weeks.

We’ll get into “Hugo’s” best picture chances a bit later. For now, let’s burrow into the below-the-line categories, along with music and animation. We’ve listed potential nominees’ names wherever possible, though final eligibility in some categories (makeup, sound and visual effects) has yet to be determined.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. “Rango”

2. “The Adventures of Tintin”

3. “Puss in Boots”

4. “Cars 2”

5. “Arthur Christmas”

Bubbling under: “Rio,” “Kung Fu Panda 2,” “Winnie the Pooh,” “Happy Feet 2,” “Chico & Rita”

Analysis: Let’s be blunt. This year offers a pretty meager crop, particularly when compared to 2010 (“Toy Story 3,” “The Illusionist,” “How to Train Your Dragon,” “Despicable Me,” “My Dog Tulip”) or 2009 (“Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “Coraline,” “Up,” “Ponyo”). Pixar’s four-year win streak likely comes to an end, with the oddball, tongue-in-cheek western “Rango” and Steven Spielberg’s manic “Tintin” leading the field. “Tintin” would be the first performance-capture animated film to be nominated. It’ll make the cut, but the well-liked “Rango” should win.

ART DIRECTION

1. “The Artist,” Laurence Bennett

2. “Hugo,” Dante Ferretti

3. “War Horse,” Rick Carter

4. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2,” Stuart Craig

5. “The Tree of Life,” Jack Fisk

Bubbling under: “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Maria Djurkovic; “J. Edgar,” James J. Murakami; “A Dangerous Method,” James McAteer; “Jane Eyre,” Wil Hughes-Jones

Analysis: We’re confident about the top four slots, but putting the chronically overlooked Fisk among the nominees might be wishful thinking. That fifth spot could go in any direction, including to three-time nominee Rick Heinrichs for his sci-fi/history mash-up work in “Captain America” or even Bo Welch’s spectacular take on Valhalla for “Thor.”

COSTUME DESIGN

1. “The Artist,” Mark Bridges

2. “Hugo,” Sandy Powell

3. “The Help,” Sharen Davis

4. “Jane Eyre,” Michael O’Connor

5. “War Horse,” Joanna Johnston

Bubbling under: “W.E.,” Arianne Phillips; “J. Edgar,” Deborah Hopper; “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Jacqueline Durran; “The Tree of Life,” Jacqueline West; “A Dangerous Method,” Denise Cronenberg; “Anonymous,” Lisy Christl

Analysis: Bridges has never been nominated, despite being the go-to guy for the likes of Paul Thomas Anderson and David O. Russell. (C’mon … Mark Wahlberg’s brushed denim tuxedo in “Boogie Nights” deserved some kind of honorary award.) This should be Bridges’ year since his glamorous work in “The Artist” hews to the more conventional tone that voters reward. His main competition: Three-time winner Powell and two-time nominee Davis. O’Connor won three years ago for another period film, “The Duchess.”

FILM EDITING

1. “The Artist,” Anne Sophie-Bion

2. “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” Claire Simpson

3. “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall

4. “War Horse,” Michael Kahn

5. “Hugo,” Thelma Schoonmaker

Bubbling under: “The Tree of Life,” Hank Corwin, Jay Rabinowitz, Daniel Rezende, Billy Weber and Mark Yoshikawa; “The Descendants,” Kevin Tent; “Moneyball,” Christopher Tellefsen; “The Help,” Hughes Winbourne; “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Dino Jonsater

Analysis: This is the category that dovetails most closely with the best picture nominees, though we’re more confident forecasting a nom for Baxter and Wall (last year’s winners) here than for their movie. With its intricate, interlocking images, “The Tree of Life” should absolutely be a nominee. More understated, though no less deserving, is the masterful storytelling inherent in Tent’s work on likely best picture nominee, “The Descendants.”

MAKEUP

1. “The Iron Lady”

2. “The Artist”

3. “J. Edgar”

Bubbling under: “Albert Nobbs,” “Green Lantern,” “Captain America: The First Avenger,” “Hugo,” “War Horse”

Analysis: A category that’s almost always about the transformation, be it taking characters from young to old, normal to freaky or back to another place and time. The gender-bending “Albert Nobbs” could certainly slip in here, as could “Green Lantern” for seamlessly super-sizing Peter Sarsgard’s cranium.

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. “War Horse,” John Williams

2. “Hugo,” Howard Shore

3. “The Artist,” Ludovic Bource

4. “The Adventures of Tintin,” John Williams

5. “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” Alexandre Desplat

Bubbling under: “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Alberto Iglesias; “The Help,” Thomas Newman; “The Ides of March,” Alexandre Desplat; “Moneyball,” Mychael Danna; “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Analysis: Traditionally, the music branch nominates boom-boom scores composed by old favorites. (Reznor and Ross’ win last year for “The Social Network” was a welcome anomaly.) This should be good news for Williams, both for “War Horse” (a score that’s still ringing in our ears) and the more inventive work he did for “Tintin.” Bource’s prominent score for “The Artist” should be enough to break him as a first-time nominee.

SONG

1. “The Living Proof” (from “The Help”), written by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman and Harvey Mason Jr., performed by Mary J. Blige

2. “Lay Your Head Down” (from “Albert Nobbs”), written by Glenn Close and Brian Byrne, performed by Sinead O’Connor

3. “So Long” (from “Winnie the Pooh”), written by Zooey Deschanel, performed by Zooey Deschanel and M. Ward

4. “Life’s a Happy Song” (from “The Muppets”), written by Brett McKenzie, performed by Jason Segel, Walter and Amy Adams

5. “Pictures in My Head” (from “The Muppets”), written by Jeannie Lurie, Aris Archontis and Chen Neeman, performed by Kermit, Fozzie, Gonzo, Swedish Chef, Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem

Bubbling under: “Star Spangled Man” (from “Captain America: The First Avenger”), written by Alan Menken and David Zippel, performed by The Star Spangled Singers; “Hello Hello” (from “Gnomeo & Juliet), written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin, performed by Elton John and Lady Gaga; “Where the River Flows” (from “Footloose”), written by Zac Brown, Wyatt Durett, Anne Preven and Drew Pearson, performed by Zac Brown; “The Keeper” (from “Machine Gun Preacher”), written and performed by Chris Cornell

Analysis: Mary J. Blige, Sinead O’Connor, Zooey Deschanel and the Muppets? We’re guessing Oscar show producer Brian Grazer will be OK with these likely choices. We just want to hear Billy Crystal say, “Ladies and gentlemen … Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem.”

SOUND EDITING

1.. “The Adventures of Tintin”

2. “Super 8”

3. “War Horse”

4. “Hugo”

5. “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

Bubbling under: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” “Rango,” “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

Analysis: And the winner is … a movie Spielberg directed and/or produced.

SOUND MIXING

1. “War Horse”

2. “Super 8”

3. “The Adventures of Tintin”

4. “Hugo”

5. .”Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

Bubbling under: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”; “Rango”

Analysis: And the winner is … a movie Spielberg directed and/or produced, though four-time nominee Tom Fleischman’s mix on “Hugo” is a work of wonder.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

2. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2”

3. “Hugo”

4. “Super 8”

5. “Tree of Life”

Bubbling under: “Transformers: Dark of the Moon,” “Thor,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides,” “Captain America: The First Avenger,” “The Adventures of Tintin”

Analysis: The battle between front-runners “Apes” and “Potter” boils down to a choice: Do you go with the team that revitalized a beloved franchise or take a last chance to honor a crew for its superlative work over the course of eight movies? The “Potter” series has scored just two noms in this category, but “Hallows — Part 2” represents their showiest effort.

Next issue: Director, writing and cinematography.

The Gold Standard handicaps the current state of the races throughout the awards season, ranking, re-ranking and predicting the eventual nominees and winners. The column updates often at TheEnvelope.com.

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