Charles McNulty’s Tony picks
Maybe this year will surprise us, but if they’re taking bets in Vegas on the Tonys, let’s throw our 401(k)s down and retire early to Montecito. “The Book of Mormon,” nominated for 14 awards, is going to need a U-Haul. “War Horse,” the odds-on favorite in the drama category, has lost some steam coming down the stretch, so the final moments of Sunday’s telecast shouldn’t be completely devoid of suspense. I’m most curious about the best lead actor in a play race. Any chance of a five-way tie? Probably about the same as my becoming Oprah’s neighbor. For what it’s worth, here’s my opinionated scorecard.
BEST PLAY
“Good People,” David Lindsay-Abaire
“Jerusalem,” Jez Butterworth
“The Mother... With the Hat,” Stephen Adly Guirgis
“War Horse,” Nick Stafford
Likely winner: “War Horse”
Upset possible with either “Mother…” or “Good People” sneaking through. “Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo” can lick its wounds knowing it was just a little too unconventional for Broadway.
BEST MUSICAL
“The Book of Mormon”
“Catch Me If You Can”
“The Scottsboro Boys”
“Sister Act”
Likely winner: “The Book of Mormon”
“The Scottsboro Boys” is more artistically impressive, but not for nothing has this been dubbed “The Mormon Moment.”
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
“Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson,” Alex Timbers
“The Book of Mormon,” Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone
“The Scottsboro Boys,” David Thompson
“Sister Act,” Cheri Steinkellner, Bill Steinkellner and Douglas Carter Beane
Likely winner: Team Mormon.
You try writing a farce about young missionary Mormons in AIDS-clobbered Africa.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Book of Mormon,” music & lyrics: Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone
“The Scottsboro Boys,” music & lyrics: John Kander & Fred Ebb
“Sister Act,” music: Alan Menken; lyrics: Glenn Slater
“Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown,” music & lyrics: David Yazbek
Likely winner: “Mormon,” “Mormon,” “Mormon.”
But I’ll take “The Scottsboro Boys” for posterity.
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
“Arcadia”
“The Importance of Being Earnest”
“The Merchant of Venice”
“The Normal Heart”
Likely winner: “The Normal Heart”
Larry Kramer finally — and deservedly — gets his Tony.
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
“Anything Goes”
“How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying”
Likely Winner: “Anything Goes”
Sutton Foster teaches Daniel Radcliffe the true meaning of “triple threat.” But I’m suffering Sondheim withdrawals.
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Brian Bedford, “The Importance of Being Earnest”
Bobby Cannavale, “The Mother... With the Hat”
Joe Mantello, “The Normal Heart”
Al Pacino, “The Merchant of Venice”
Mark Rylance, “Jerusalem”
Likely winner: Rylance by a nose.
In truth, any one of the five would be swell, but I’m rooting for Mantello.
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Nina Arianda, “Born Yesterday”
Frances McDormand, “Good People”
Lily Rabe, “The Merchant of Venice”
Vanessa Redgrave, “Driving Miss Daisy”
Hannah Yelland, “Brief Encounter”
Likely winner: McDormand, who will soon have a Tony to set beside her Oscar.
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Norbert Leo Butz, “Catch Me If You Can”
Josh Gad, “The Book of Mormon”
Joshua Henry, “The Scottsboro Boys”
Andrew Rannells, “The Book of Mormon”
Tony Sheldon, “Priscilla Queen of the Desert”
Likely winner: Gad or Rannells of “The Book of Mormon”
One of the doorbell ringers should bring home the prize, though Butz could steal their holy thunder. I’m praying for Sheldon, however, to pull off a miracle.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Sutton Foster, “Anything Goes”
Beth Leavel, “Baby It’s You!”
Patina Miller, “Sister Act”
Donna Murphy, “The People in the Picture”
Likely winner: Foster, for reminding us that old-school Broadway stars aren’t a thing of the past.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Mackenzie Crook, “Jerusalem”
Billy Crudup, “Arcadia”
John Benjamin Hickey, “The Normal Heart”
Arian Moayed, “Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo”
Yul Vázquez, “The Mother... With the Hat”
Likely winner: Hickey, who was heartbreaking.
Still, I’m cheering for Moayed, whose performance has only deepened since he first played the role of the tormented Iraqi translator at the Kirk Douglas Theatre. And how about a new category — best human curveball — for Vázquez?
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Ellen Barkin, “The Normal Heart”
Edie Falco, “The House of Blue Leaves”
Judith Light, “Lombardi”
Joanna Lumley, “La Bête”
Elizabeth Rodriguez, “The Mother... With the Hat”
Likely winner: Barkin.
Barkin’s big scene provokes a tsunami of tears, but a brilliantly assaultive Rodriguez never lets up in “Mother….”
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Colman Domingo, “The Scottsboro Boys”
Adam Godley, “Anything Goes”
John Larroquette, “How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying”
Forrest McClendon, “The Scottsboro Boys”
Rory O’Malley, “The Book of Mormon”
Likely winner: Larroquette.
But I’m still giggling over O’Malley’s campy turn as a fey, mad-for-musicals Mormon.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Laura Benanti, “Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown”
Tammy Blanchard, “How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying”
Victoria Clark, “Sister Act”
Nikki M. James, “The Book of Mormon”
Patti LuPone, “Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown”
Likely winner: Benanti.
Tough competition, but Benanti gave the funniest Broadway performance since Katie Finneran’s Tony-winning portrayal of a birdlike barroom floozy in “Promises, Promises” last season.
BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, “War Horse”
Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe, “The Normal Heart”
Anna D. Shapiro, “The Mother... with the Hat”
Daniel Sullivan, “The Merchant of Venice”
Likely winner: Grey & Wolfe.
They have my vote, but a shout out to Shapiro for making “Mother...” zing.
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Rob Ashford, “How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying”
Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker, “The Book of Mormon”
Susan Stroman, “The Scottsboro Boys”
Likely winner: Nicholaw and Parker.
“Mormon” is a conqueror, but kudos to Stroman for flawlessly drawing out the razzle-dazzle in “Scottsboro.”
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