Gold Standard: Some sure bets for film nominees

Oscar ballots went out Monday. Early birds have already ticked off their choices for best picture and returned to packing for holiday getaways and/or finding the best recipe for tofu ham. How’s the race shaping up? A look at the movies contending for best picture, foreign-language film and documentary.

BEST PICTURE

“Lincoln”

“Zero Dark Thirty”

“Argo”

“Silver Linings Playbook”

“Les Misérables”

“Life of Pi”

“The Master”

“Skyfall”

“Moonrise Kingdom”

“Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Bubbling under: “Django Unchained,” “Flight,” “Amour,” “The Impossible,” “Anna Karenina,” “The Dark Knight Rises”

Analysis: We’ve reached the point in the best picture race where we’re confident enough to put four films in the circle of trust. Based on academy members’ reactions at screenings and various precursor awards, the makers of “Lincoln,” “Argo,” “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Silver Linings Playbook” can feel free to email Wolfgang Puck with suggestions for the Governors Ball menu. (May we humbly propose bringing back the lobster tacos, Herr Puck?) And judging from all the sniffling and the boo-hooing and whatnot, “Les Misérables” and “Life of Pi” seem to have their advocates too, though when Anne Hathaway warbles about the tigers coming at night, we initially wondered whether Richard Parker was around the corner, ready to devour a hyena or dear, tragic Fantine.

That would make six. Under the academy’s preferential balloting process, as few as five or as many as 10 movies can be nominated. Last year, in the system’s first run, we had nine nominees, a hefty number given that when PricewaterhouseCoopers analyzed the votes from 2001 to 2008, the preferential ballot would have produced five to nine nominees. Remember: Passion counts, since the bean-counters sort the ballots based on first-place votes.

So the question is: Do any of the remaining contenders engender the same kind of hopeful devotion that put “The Tree of Life” into the nominees’ circle last year? Let’s take a look-see at the pros and cons of a few of the possibilities:

“The Master.” Pro: Paul Thomas Anderson’s cult is even more fanatical than the Master’s devotees. Con: Academy members complain that time spent musing on the movie’s enigmas would be better spent searching out Susan Boyle’s cover version of “I Dreamed a Dream.” Verdict: This year’s “Tree”?

“Skyfall.” Pro: Best. Bond. Ever. Con: Bond? Feh. Verdict: Probably not ranked high enough on ballots to land.

“Moonrise Kingdom.” Pro: Wes Anderson at his best. Indie Spirit powerhouse. Con: No Anderson film has been nominated for best picture. Verdict: Possible. Many voters adored “Moonrise.”

“Beasts of the Southern Wild.” Pro: Year’s most original vision? Con: Original, yes. Unshaped? That too. Verdict: The film has a lot of champions. Are they spreading the gospel?

“Amour.” Pro: Michael Haneke’s unflinching, intimate portrait of an elderly man caring for his wife has profoundly moved many voters. Con: Sure-fire foreign-language film nominee. Some academy members are uncertain it can be nominated for best picture too. (Seriously). Verdict: Unlikely to score a double nomination.

“Django Unchained.” Pro: More incisive look at emotional wounds of slavery than “Lincoln”? Con: Wall-to-wall violence will make many academy members’ heads explode. Verdict: “Inglourious Basterds” won a nom, but a Tarantino repeat here is unlikely.

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

“Amour”

“The Intouchables”

“A Royal Affair”

“Kon Tiki”

“Lore”

Bubbling under: “Fill the Void,” “In the Shadows,” “No,” “Beyond the Hills,” “Barbara,” “Sister,” “War Witch”

Analysis: The French entry, “The Intouchables,” has long been an audience favorite, but so too is the tougher “Amour” in its own unsparing way. These two front-runners will likely be joined by the sumptuous, smart costume drama “A Royal Affair” and Norway’s adventure tale “Kon-Tiki,” which has wowed academy members with its impeccable craft and visual splendor. At press time, a couple of strong contenders — the Tribeca winner “War Witch” and Rama Burshtein’s impressive debut, “Fill the Void,” still had not screened for committee voters, so we can’t report on reactions. But both films, along with the others listed here, are solid possibilities to make the academy’s shortlist of nine.

DOCUMENTARY

“The Gatekeepers”

“How to Survive a Plague”

“Searching for Sugar Man”

“The Invisible War”

“Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”

Bubbling under: “Bully,” “The House I Live In,” “Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry,” “This Is Not a Film,” “The Imposter”

Analysis: Yes, the academy’s shortlist of 15 documentaries contained a few notable omissions (“The Central Park Five,” “West of Memphis,” “The Queen of Versailles”), but voters in this year’s revamped nominating process also did a pretty admirable job of wading through the stack of titles and coming up with some worthy nominees. Docs tackling hot-button issues have done well in the past, and there’s no reason to believe that sort of bias won’t continue, auguring well for the AIDS-focused “Plague” and the social justice themes of “Mea Maxima Culpa” and “The Invisible War.” Sony Pictures Classics’ potent “The Gatekeepers” just had its qualifying run, and its look at the surviving former heads of Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency, has an urgency that should put it among the nominated films. And though music-themed docs haven’t done particularly well over the years (“Buena Vista Social Club” was an exception; “Anvil” was not), the crowd-pleasing “Sugar Man’s” populist tale of artistic rediscovery figures to be irresistible.

Next issue: We look at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

glenn.whipp@latimes.com