Poll Analysis: Davis Has Comfortable Lead Over Lungren

With just nine days remaining until the November 3rd election, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis holds a commanding lead over his Republican counterpart, Dan Lungren, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.
     Among those voters deemed most likely to vote, Davis leads Lungren by an impressive 11 points--53% to 42%. Swing voters of independents/decline-to-state and self-described moderates are solidly behind Davis. These groups, along with men and white voters are crucial for a candidate to win in California and Lungren is having a hard time getting these likely voters to support him. Also, in a marked turn Lungren is seeing a big defection among his own core constituencies--moderate Republicans and to a lesser extent Republican women. Another example of his slippage among voters is on the issue of crime. He has tried to capitalize on this issue as the attorney general of California, but he barely wins this against Davis.
     Davis is capturing more of the Democratic likely voters (85%) than Lungren is Republican voters (75%). Davis wins the votes of independent likely voters, 55% to 43%, as well as self-described moderate likely voters (71% to 22%). To place these results in some sort of context, in the 1994 November exit poll conducted by the Times Poll, 47% of self-described moderates voted for the incumbent Republican governor Pete Wilson and 48% for the Democratic candidate, former Treasurer Kathleen Brown. (This was the election in which Wilson came out in support of Proposition 187, the anti-immigration initiative.) And in the 1990 November Times exit poll for governor, the Republican candidate Pete Wilson carried 46% of the moderates, while his Democratic challenger, former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein received 50%. Davis has tried to link Lungren with Gingrich and the conservatives in the Republican party in his commercials and during their four debates. His commercials portraying Lungren as being out of touch with Californians on issues that are important to the citizenry--ban on assault weapons, abortion, education--are working to the Democratic candidate's advantage. Lungren has not been able to damage Davis with his ads so far.What is even more startling is the defection of moderate (non-conservative) Republicans to Davis. Forty-five percent of these likely Republican voters are backing Davis, while giving Lungren just 44% of their vote. But Lungren has shored up his conservative Republican base (86% to 12%). Fourteen percent of non-liberal Democrats likely to vote say they will defect to Lungren. Although more than two-thirds of Republican women are solidly behind Lungren, a sizeable 23% are supporting Davis. About 4 out of 5 Republican men say they will vote for their Republican candidate, but about a fifth (17%) say they will cast their vote for Davis. There is not as much defection from Democratic men (86% to 10%) or Democratic women (86% to 11%) to Lungren.
     As with the Barbara Boxer and Matt Fong race for U.S. Senate, there is also a wide gender gap in the governor's race. Although in the Senate race, Republican candidate Fong receives more votes from men than Democratic Boxer does, Lungren splits the likely male vote with Davis (47% for Lungren, 49% for Davis). And as the poll shows that women are solidly behind the Democratic incumbent in the U.S. senate race, they are just as committed to voting for Davis in the governor's race (58% to 37%).
     Likely voters living in Los Angeles county, the Bay area and the rest of Northern California are voting heavily for Davis, while Southern California voters outside of Los Angeles are strongly supporting Lungren. Voters in the Central Valley are somewhat divided (51% for Lungren, 46% for Davis).
     Lungren is getting support from affluent voters (those earning more than $60,000 a year in household income), 53%, to Davis' 44%. Conversely, likely voters earning less than $60,000 are behind Davis. Likely voters on all education levels are voting for the lieutenant governor.
     One of the ingredients for winning in California is to receive a large share of white voters. This poll is showing virtually a split among white likely voters between the two major candidates. To illustrate this point, according to the Times exit poll for the 1990 governor's race, 52% of the white voters supported Wilson, 43% voted for Feinstein; and in the 1994 exit poll, 61% of white voters backed Wilson, while 35% supported Kathleen Brown.Davis has strong support among Latinos and African Americans most likely to vote (3 out of 4 of each group). Lungren is getting about a quarter of the Latino vote. Support for Lungren among Latinos is less than it was in 1990 for Wilson (33%), but about the same as Wilson received in 1994 (23%). However, it appears that Dole suffered in the 1996 presidential election because of the Republican's anti-immigration rhetoric and support of Prop 187. He garnered only 18% of the Latino vote. Lungren may also be a casualty in a Republican backlash by Latinos.

     Issues
     While Lungren appears to be having a hard time getting his message across to the voters in the state, Davis seems to be connecting with the voters. Davis' commercials on crime, education and abortion appear to be having a positive impact on his campaign. More than 4 out of 5 likely voters have seen commercials by both of the candidates. And more than a third (35%) of likely voters say that commercials from Davis make them more favorable toward him compared to 27% who say less favorable. The reverse is true for Lungren. A quarter (26%) of likely voters say commercials from the Republican challenger make them more favorable toward Lungren, while 39% say less favorable.
     In the early stages of his campaigning, Lungren tried to link Davis with Clinton indirectly by saying character is an important issue, but it apparently did not resonate with the voters. In this poll, Davis surpasses Lungren as a candidate who has more honesty and integrity to serve as governor of California (41% to 29%) and who shares the same values as they do (47% to 39%). In the September poll, 42% of likely voters said that Lungren shared the same values as they do, while 36% said Davis. And also in September, likely voters split on whether the candidates had the honesty and integrity to serve as governor (30% Davis, 32% Lungren). Moderate Republicans are split in their feelings about which candidate shares their same values (39% Lungren, 37% Davis), men are also divided (43% each candidate), while women think Davis shares their values. Independents and moderates also feel Davis is closer to their values than Lungren.
     In the September poll, Lungren beat Davis among likely voters (43% to 36%) on the attribute of who had stronger leadership qualities. But the tides have turned in this poll and 49% of those apt to vote think Davis has stronger leadership qualities, Lungren 38%. Again men and women and moderates believe Davis would be the stronger leader. Independents think Lungren has that quality. Slightly more moderate Republicans think Lungren has stronger leadership skills than Davis (44% to 37%).
     Both Davis and Lungren have commercials on television showing how tough they are on crime. This issue should be owned by Lungren as attorney general, but he is barely ahead of Davis (45% to 41%). This is probably somewhat deflating for Lungren as he won this issue in the September survey (56% to 27%). Men believe Lungren would be best on crime, while women think the opposite. Independents think Lungren would be the better candidate on this issue, while self-described middle-of-the-road likely voters think Davis is the candidate that would be better on crime. But who would be better in enforcing the death penalty--Lungren beats Davis handily by 54% to 20%.
     In the September poll, 41% of likely voters said education is the most important problem facing the state today. And Davis is the beneficiary of likely voters believing that he is the better candidate at handling the state's education problems than his Republican challenger (52% to 35%). Moderate Republicans are divided over who would be better on education (41% Lungren, 44% Davis). Men and women believe Davis would be the better candidate, as do moderates and independents.
     Half of likely voters think that Davis would do the better job of handling California's economy, while 36% think Lungren would. In the September poll, likely voters thought both candidates would be better on this issue (tied at 42%). Among moderate Republicans likely to vote Davis beats Lungren (43% to 37%). Davis also wins in this category with men, women, moderates and to a lesser extent independents.
     Davis has made abortion an important issue in his campaign showing that Lungren is out of sync with the voters in California. The Democrat believes in the right of every woman to decide whether to have an abortion or not. Lungren, however, is against abortion, except in the cases of rape, or incest, or if the mother's life is in danger. When likely voters were asked whose views comes closer to theirs, about 3 out of 5 voters (61%) sided with Davis' view, 35% with Lungren's. Californians have always been a moderate voice on the issue of abortion and are more pro choice than pro life. This is evident when the data shows a third of Republican men and the same share of Republican women agreeing with Davis' position, as well as a full majority, 62%, of moderate Republicans. It really is not a polarizing or decisive issue in this state.
     A third of likely voters say Davis' position on abortion would make them more likely to vote for him and 22% less likely, compared to 35% of likely voters saying Lungren's position on abortion would make them less likely to vote for him and 25% more likely. Nearly half (46%) of likely Republican voters say Lungren's views on abortion would make them more likely, while 14% say it would make them less likely. Among moderate Republicans likely to vote, 21% say Lungren's view on abortion would make them more likely and 29% less likely, while 46% of Republican men and the same share of Republican women say it would make them more likely to vote and 18% of Republican women and 11% of Republican men say it would make them less likely.

     Impressions
     Almost two-thirds of likely voters say they have a favorable impression of Gray Davis, 29% have an unfavorable impression. His Democratic base has an overwhelmingly favorable impression of the candidate (88% to 7% unfavorable). Moderates have a positive opinion of him (80% to 16%), as do independents (59% to 39%). Even Republicans don't have such negative opinions about the Democrat challenger--40% favorable to 51% unfavorable. Forty-one percent of Republican women have a positive impression of the lieutenant governor and 49% have a negative opinion. Sixty-two percent of moderate Republicans have a favorable impression, 30% unfavorable. Both men and women have favorable impressions of the Democrat.
     Nearly half (49%) of likely voters say they have a favorable impression of Dan Lungren, 42% have an unfavorable impression. The Republican base supports Lungren--78% favorable to 15% unfavorable. More than half of the independents (52%) have a favorable impression of the attorney general, 42% unfavorable. However, only a third of moderates say they have a favorable opinion of Lungren, 52% unfavorable. Men have a favorable impression (53% to 37%), but women have mixed feelings about the Republican challenger (45% each for favorable and unfavorable). Lungren does not fare as well among Democrats as Davis does among Republicans. Only 22% of likely Democratic voters have a positive opinion, while 65% have an unfavorable impression. A quarter of Democratic men and a fifth of Democratic women have a favorable opinion of Lungren (63% of Democratic men and 66% of Democratic women have an unfavorable impression).

     How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,449 California registered voters, including 883 voters deemed most likely to vote, by telephone October 17-21. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points and for likely voters, it is four points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asians were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.