Clinton’s very bad week: Speed bump or turning point?

Two big events hit the presidential campaign this week, and they provide a test case of what actually matters for election outcomes.

On Sunday, Hillary Clinton was caught on video nearly collapsing as she tried to get into a van. She then had to admit she had hidden a pneumonia diagnosis for two days, hoping she could “power through.” As Mark Barabak noted, the incident amplified the concerns that many voters have had about Clinton’s penchant for secrecy to the point of evasiveness.

On Tuesday, the Census Bureau announced that average incomes had risen faster last year than at any time since the Census started measuring incomes.

Which will have a bigger effect?

Good afternoon, I’m David Lauter, Washington bureau chief. Welcome to the Friday edition of our Essential Politics newsletter, in which we look at the events of the week in the presidential campaign and highlight some particularly insightful stories.

CLINTON HITS A SKID

Political science would say that the rapid improvement of incomes after years of stagnation will have the greater impact: Voters respond to economic conditions more than almost anything else, years of research has shown.

Campaign practice, however, would bet on those images of Clinton’s knees buckling. The president may no longer be the “single-combat warrior” of the Cold War — the image that Tom Wolfe coined in “The Right Stuff.” But visible signs of weakness remain a liability for anyone who aspires to the Oval Office.

In the short term, it’s been no contest. This past week has been Clinton’s worst on the campaign since the Donald Trump’s nominating convention, judging by both national polls and those in battleground states.

In addition to the health controversy, Clinton had to apologize for calling half of Trump’s supporters “deplorables.” Republicans immediately seized on the “deplorables” remark as a campaign theme, although it remains to be seen whether it will have the kind of impact that they hope, as Seema Mehta explained.

By midweek, what had seemed a solid Clinton lead over Trump had grown much more tenuous.

But it’s important to keep in mind how quickly news events can fade from public attention.

As the week progressed, Trump and Clinton both released some medical details, but as Noah Bierman and Evan Halper noted, the nature of the releases drew more questions.

By Friday, the campaign discourse on cable television already had moved on from health to whether Trump would disavow or apologize for years of claims that President Obama wasn’t born in the U.S.

For the next week, the campaign will be dominated by the run-up to the first televised debate between the two candidates. By the time they take the stage, everything that has happened so far may fade into the background.

The one thing that is clear is how high the stakes will be for that debate.

We will be tracking all of it, so keep up with the news over the weekend on Trail Guide.

THE POLARIZED ELECTORATE

Part of the reason that controversies such as those we’ve seen this past week usually have a limited impact is that so few voters are truly up for grabs.

A couple of decades ago, that was less true. The U.S. once had far more swing voters than it has now. But for years, the trend has been toward ever-greater voter polarization. Now, as the nonpartisan Pew Research Center’s data demonstrates, Democratic and Republican voters are further apart than they’ve been in a generation.

For candidates, that puts a priority on mobilizing their core supporters — the base, as political consultants say. One way debates have an impact on the election is by mobilizing — or discouraging — those supporters.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has had trouble consolidating his base. He gets the support of more than 80% of Republicans in polls but has yet to reach the 90% level that Mitt Romney achieved.

As for Clinton, she does pretty well with most of the Democratic base but continues to have a lot of trouble with young people, as our poll this week of California voters showed. As Cathleen Decker wrote, it’s not that young voters like Trump — he actually comes in third place in several polls of millennial-generation voters — but they continue to flirt with third-party candidates.

Clinton has plans to get millennials to vote, as Chris Megerian wrote. But a big part of the effort will rely on her surrogates, from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who campaigned for her in Ohio in recent days, to Obama, who brought tough words about Trump to an audience in Philadelphia.

Ultimately, the Clinton campaign hopes that its superior organization will turn out Democratic voters in a way that Trump’s campaign cannot match. Nevada is a test site, for that strategy, Barabak reported. It pits Clinton’s huge organizational edge against the enthusiasm of Trump’s supporters.

POLICY? YES, THERE’S THAT TOO

Clinton and Trump disagree about nearly every major issue facing the country. This past week, several of those issues have come into focus.

Trump set out his economic plan but left many questions unanswered, as Bierman and Don Lee wrote. Trump also outlined a child care plan, saying his daughter, Ivanka, had insisted on it.

Overall, the two candidates have very different approaches to policy, Noam Levey and Mike Memoli, reported. Clinton has enough policy to fill a book, Trump, not so much. She thinks it matters a lot; he doesn’t.

SELLING TRUMP TO LATINOS AND SOME OTHER GREAT READS

Helen Aguirre Ferre may have the toughest job in American politics. As the Republican National Committee’s chief of Hispanic communications, her job is to sell Trump to Latino voters. Bierman brings us her story.

Lisa Mascaro looks at how Trump’s language is affecting political discourse. Believe me, it’s huge.

DON’T FORGET THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

As our interactive electoral map shows, Clinton currently leads in enough states to secure the White House. But if the race tightens further, some of those states could begin to change.

Winning requires 270 electoral votes. How to get there? We’ve updated the map with our best estimates. Now you get to play political strategist and try out as many scenarios as you like.

FOLLOW OUR TRACKING POLL

The USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll has been tracing Trump’s and Clinton’s trajectories since early summer. The poll shows a better outcome for Trump than many other surveys. Why is it different? Here are several of the reasons. and here’s what the poll tells us about Trump’s potential path forward.

QUESTIONS ABOUT TRUMP, CLINTON? WE’VE GOT ANSWERS

Where they stand on issues, what they’ve done in their lives, their successes, their failures, what their presidencies might look like: We’ve been writing about Clinton and Trump for years, and we’ve pulled the best of that content together to make finding what you want to know easier. So check out All Things Trump and All Things Clinton.

LOGISTICS

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That wraps up this week. My colleague Christina Bellantoni will be back Monday with the weekday edition of Essential Politics. Until then, keep track of all the developments in the 2016 campaign with our Trail Guide, at our Politics page and on Twitter @latimespolitics.

Send your comments, suggestions and news tips to politics@latimes.com.