Republican Joni Ernst leading in final Iowa Senate preelection poll

Right now, Harry Reid is hoping the Des Moines Register poll is wrong.

Just hours after he told voters in Iowa Saturday that their state was crucial to Democratic hopes of holding control of the Senate -- “If we win Iowa, we’re going to be just fine,” the Senate Majority leader said -- the final major statewide poll showed the Republican candidate firmly in charge.

The well-regarded Des Moines Register survey found state Sen. Joni Ernst ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley, 51% to 44%, which represents her biggest lead ever in the race. In polls taken in the last several weeks, the share of the vote won by Braley, a congressman, has dropped slightly while Ernst’s has risen.

Voters polled in the Hawkeye state said they felt Braley was more knowledgeable about issues but that they connected better with Ernst. That represented a repudiation of Democratic efforts to paint Ernst as so far to the right that she failed to represent Iowa values. (Pollster J. Ann Selzer noted that Braley continued to be hurt by his insult of Iowa farmers, a tape of which was released last March by a GOP-allied research group.)

The state, which is accustomed to being the center of attention in presidential campaigns, has felt the bombardment this midterm election campaign too, as the candidates and allied supporters have spent millions on the race.

Perhaps because of that, a mere 4% of state voters polled said that they had not decided on a candidate, and only 7% who cited a choice said they might change their minds.

Republicans need a net pickup of six seats to wrest control of the U.S. Senate, and Democrats early on had counted Iowa in their corner, underestimating Ernst’s ability to reach for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin.

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