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At times, blue states run red

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Capitol Journal

Every so often, Americans poke their finger in the eye of the political hierarchy just to remind it of who’s really boss.

It’s in our DNA. But it’s not uniquely American. It’s a human trait that’s exercised wherever democracy governs.

We’re amazed that in Massachusetts a U.S. Senate seat held 57 years by Democrats -- held by brothers from a revered American political family -- suddenly is captured by a little-known Republican state legislator. But free people tend to be fickle. Best example: The British booting Winston Churchill as prime minister immediately after he eloquently led the nation and inspired the allies to victory over the Nazis.

It doesn’t take much to rile American voters -- especially nonpartisan independents -- and it often occurs during a president’s second year in office, to the detriment of his party. This year the irritants include a mysterious, scary healthcare proposal and high unemployment. In 1994, the flash points were a tax increase and an awkward attempt at healthcare reform. In 1982, a sour economy. In 1970, a divisive war.

The political pendulum swings, even in the bluest of states such as Massachusetts and California.

Massachusetts has been known to elect Republican governors, and California prefers to. Three of the last four California governors have been Republicans.

For many reasons -- the latest being Tuesday’s election of a Republican senator in a state where the voter registration is only 12% GOP -- this year’s California gubernatorial race should be considered a tossup.

Only a few months ago, political junkies and insiders were privately calling Democratic Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown a slam-dunk to win back the governor’s office he occupied in the 1970s. That expectation was based largely on California being a blue state, after all, where candidate Barack Obama in 2008 had rallied the party faithful and corralled independent voters. Meanwhile, Republicans seemed hapless.

Nobody’s talking like that any more.

“Anybody who thinks that all we have to do is put up somebody with a ‘D’ after their name and a measurable pulse is smoking something,” says Democratic consultant Garry South. “They’re taking advantage of the medicinal marijuana laws.”

Bill Carrick, another longtime Democratic strategist, says: “The one thing scary for California Democrats is that Massachusetts is as reliably blue as California. If a Republican can take off in Massachusetts, there’s no reason one can’t in California. . . . I don’t like what we’re heading into.”

Brown has high name-ID. And he always has been on the cutting edge of environmental and technological issues regardless of his age, now 71. But Brown also carts baggage from a 40-year career in politics.

And, in campaign funding, he won’t come close to matching either potential Republican nominee, former EBay Chief Executive Meg Whitman, the front-runner, or state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Whitman already has committed $39 million of her own money, Poizner $19 million.

The Massachusetts stunner unquestionably has implications for California this year. But those implications still are a bit murky.

It’s hard to argue that the Republican victory was a fluke given GOP gubernatorial triumphs in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. But, in the end, high-profile races usually come down to a popularity contest between the candidates and a test of wits and energy between the campaigns.

The Democratic loser in Massachusetts, state Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley, apparently was a lousy, lackadaisical candidate who didn’t run hard enough, early enough. Meanwhile, the Republican winner, state Sen. Scott Brown, was energetic and charismatic.

So far, neither Republican gubernatorial candidate in California seems all that charismatic. But many Democrats worry that Brown may be repeating Coakley’s mistake of dilly-dallying.

“There’s a very direct connection between Massachusetts and what may happen here in California,” says South, a strategist for San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s Democratic primary race against Brown before Newsom bowed out last year. “When the party puts up a candidate who runs a lazy and ineffective campaign, we can get beat. . . .

“I’m alarmed at what I see shaping up here, given Brown’s complete lack of any semblance of a campaign. . . . A campaign for California governor is not a mom-and-pop operation that you can run out of your loft in Oakland.”

Brown doesn’t even plan to officially announce his candidacy until next month.

Aides say he has been tending to his job as attorney general and raising campaign money.

He has about $12 million banked, chump change compared with his Republican rivals’ unlimited stash.

“We’re very comfortable with our position,” responds campaign manager Steve Glazer, who only recently began getting paid by the candidate, a lifelong tightwad. Before that, Glazer had been an unpaid volunteer.

“We never felt the need to [campaign] early. The electorate is not engaged in any serious extent on the governor’s race. Our fundraising is going well, and that’s the best use of his time outside his work as attorney general.”

Anyway, Brown doesn’t have a major opponent in the Democratic primary.

The Massachusetts result also buoyed Republican hopes of beating Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, an unabashed liberal.

“Boxer could legitimately be vulnerable,” says Republican consultant Rob Stuzman, who’s advising Whitman. “But I don’t want to overstate it. Republicans have a ways to go to be competitive.”

Republican Allan Hoffenblum, who publishes the nonpartisan California Target Book, which handicaps political races, offers GOP candidates this advice:

“To be successful statewide, your only chance is to do what Brown did in Massachusetts. That is, appeal to independents and not run as a Republican. The Republican brand name is poison in this state. If you appeal only to the base, that’s all you’ll get.”

And Republican consultant Ray McNally says another lesson is being re-learned: “When you’re the party out of power, you can always count on the other party getting you back in the game. And when you’re the party in power, you can always count on misreading the reason you’re in power.”

You’ll get it when you feel the voters’ poke in the eye.

george.skelton@latimes.com

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