Essential Politics: How the presidential race is tied to economic anxiety

I’m Christina Bellantoni, the Essential Politics host today. Let’s get started.

We begin the day with fresh numbers from the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll showing how economic issues are factoring into how Californians view the presidential race.

The state’s voters are more optimistic than they were in the recent past; they’re now split on whether the state is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track. How voters feel about that direction was a prime indicator of whom they back as president.

In the Democratic race, those who feel the state is headed in the right direction backed Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders, 52% to 34%. Those who feel it’s on the wrong track backed Sanders over Clinton, 40% to 35%.

Among Republicans, those who felt the state is going in the right direction are split, with Donald Trump winning 25%, Sen. Ted Cruz getting 24% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 18%. Among the larger pool of Republicans who saw the economy foundering, Trump extended his lead, with 40% versus 33% for Cruz. Kasich fell to 10% among those voters.

Cathleen Decker has the story, which also looks at how Californians feel about trade deals.

As for another economic data point, we’re still closely tracking the Legislature’s debate on a plan to raise the minimum wage to $15.

The Times’ Business desk took a look at who will get a raise from the minimum wage deal and came up with a nifty chart.

Liam Dillon talked with business-aligned Democrats Tuesday who said they still aren’t sure about the deal after a closed-door meeting with their colleagues in the Assembly. (He also did some research, and stumbled upon this tidbit: California’s sheepherders have a special minimum wage carve-out to earn $1 more an hour than regular workers.)

We asked our Twitter followers their thoughts on the wage hike proposal.

Lawmakers are evaluating the bill language, and the first formal committee hearing on the bill is scheduled for 9 a.m. We’ll be covering it live on our Essential Politics news feed.

THE DAILY TRUMP

After CNN’s town hall forum, it sounds like the Republican candidates’ pledges to support the eventual GOP nominee are all but squashed.

Trump stood by his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, and continued to suggest that journalist Michelle Fields was lying even after police pressed battery charges and released a video that shows Lewandowski reaching toward her as she tried to talk to Trump as he left an event.

“Look at tapes — nothing there,” Trump tweeted, calling Lewandowski “a very decent man.” He also claimed that Fields had grabbed him first — “Can I press charges?” — and said she was changing her story.

Our engagement team is asking for readers to share their thoughts about Trump. We’re asking two simple questions, and we’d love to hear from you.

Watch Trail Guide for news from the campaign and follow @latimespolitics.

REPUBLICAN BALLOT GETTING SLIMMER BY THE DAY

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush wrote letters asking California’s Secretary of State to strike their names from the June 7 ballot, following Sen. Marco Rubio’s lead. A few stragglers still remain.

SANCHEZ SUPER PAC

Orange County supporters of Rep. Loretta Sanchez have launched a super PAC to help her bid for the U.S. Senate. Political consultant Stu Mollrich said the political action committee, called California’s New Frontier, will help her take on Democratic rival Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris, the current front-runner. The goal is simple: get Sanchez to finish in the top two in the June 7 primary, which would nab her a spot on the November ballot.

CALIFORNIA’S ‘EXCLUSIVE’ ELECTORATE

With an election right around the corner, there’s a new report out this morning that shows California has a persistent, perhaps even growing, gap between its voters and its population. Put simply: Voters are nowhere near as diverse as is the state’s population.

Sacramento Bureau Chief John Myers takes a look at the evidence of what’s dubbed the state’s “exclusive electorate,” and how big policy issues might turn out differently if voting weren’t dominated by older, white, affluent Californians.

Myers is moderating a panel discussion on the issue later today in Sacramento. You can catch the live webcast from the Public Policy Institute of California’s event at 12:15 p.m.

TODAY’S ESSENTIALS

— A top Cruz staffer visited with GOP legislators at their weekly caucus meeting in Sacramento on Tuesday.

— The powerful California Chamber of Commerce released its 2016 list of “job killer” bills on Tuesday. And, as usual, the list is composed of legislation championed by legislative Democrats.

— A new poll of Asian American voters finds 65% support providing a “pathway to legalization” for immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally.

— Evoking the threat of court-ordered prison releases, Gov. Jerry Brown appealed to his political supporters for help in collecting signatures to get his parole initiative on the November ballot.

— Mike Memoli examines President Obama’s strategy to fill the Supreme Court vacancy and confirm Merrick Garland and finds White House aides taking countless small steps to push them to victory. Case in point: Tuesday’s meeting between Garland and Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois, the first Republican to agree to see him.

— An expected 4-4 Supreme Court vote came as a relief to unions Tuesday and keeps in place a 1970s-era rule that authorizes unions to require municipal employees, teachers, college instructors and transit workers to pay a “fair share fee” to help cover the cost of collective bargaining.

— Despite a glitzy launch several years ago, StudentsFirst, the Sacramento-based education group started by former Washington, D.C., schools chancellor Michelle Rhee, is merging with another education advocacy organization, 50Can.

— The mayor of West Hollywood says Trump is not welcome in her city.

— The Festival of Books is coming up. Here are details on the program, which will include panels featuring Team Politics.

LOGISTICS

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